Strong Storms possible Monday (2/27/23)

[nWo]

 

Thunderstorms associated with damaging winds will be possible on Monday across parts of the Ohio Valley.  A highly progressive upper-level trough, along with an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet, will move across the southern Plains Sunday night, reaching the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday. An associated surface low will move northeastward into the southwestern Great Lakes on Monday. A area of low to mid 50s F dewpoints will be located ahead of the front, where weak instability will develop by midday. Near the front, storms expected to form during the late morning, moving quickly eastward across Kentucky during the afternoon. These storms could organize into a fine line, potentially becoming severe. Although the instability will remain weak, a few lightning strikes will be possible with low-topped convection. In addition, forecast soundings in central and northern Kentucky show winds as high as 40 to 50 knots about 1,000 ft above the surface. For this reason, the stronger cells may be able to produce isolated damaging winds. The threat should persist through much of the afternoon as a narrow line  moves quickly eastward into the central Appalachian foothills. 

[nWo]

Saturday afternoon update:

 

Frequent 45-55 mph wind gusts expected Monday. Strongest gusts are expected in the late morning and afternoon hours. Isolated damaging wind gusts of 60+ mph possible. Isolated damaging winds from thunderstorms will also be possible. Showers will be shallow, or low-topped, and there is only a slight chance for thunder Winds just off the ground will be very strong, so even a shower (no thunder) could produce 60+ mph winds,

[nWo]

 

The Slight Risk Area has moved up to and along the Ohio River. A Marginal Risk Area extends down to around I-64. 

Frequent 45-55 mph wind gusts expected Monday. Strongest gusts mid-morning through mid-afternoon.  Isolated damaging wind gusts of 60+ mph possible. 

Minor tree damage, scattered power outages

Unsecured lightweight objects will be blown around

Difficult travel conditions for high profile vehicles 

Frequent 45-55 mph wind gusts expected Monday. Strongest gusts mid-morning through mid-afternoon.

Isolated damaging wind gusts of 60+ mph possible Confidence in Strong Non-Thunderstorm Winds

 

[nWo]

Monday morning update:

 

 

Thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts across the Ohio Valley today. At least a few tornadoes are also possible, especially across Ohio this afternoon. Widespread clouds and at least scattered thunderstorms are anticipated hampering more robust low-level instability from materializing through at least early afternoon. Nonetheless, latest guidance consensus shows a brief period of day time heating across the Ohio Valley in advance of an approaching band of low-topped storms. Ahead of the storms, temperatures may warm to 60 F amid upper 50s F surface dewpoints, contributing to conditions that could be favorable for strong to severe storms.  As the low-topped line of storms progresses eastward through the afternoon, small bowing segments and transient supercell structures may develop, with damaging gusts possible. The best chance for low-topped supercells and associated tornadoes would be across Ohio during the mid to late afternoon hours.  Should greater than expected daytime heating and moisture return occur, a locally higher tornado threat may materialize. Storms should weaken by early evening as they approach the Appalachians and outpace any surface-based buoyancy.