New System to close out the weekend

[nWo]

After the rain/snow showers some may see Thursday there is another possible storm system that could affect Kentucky late Saturday night into the day on Sunday. Snow is a possibility but the artic air that moves in after the snow moves out will be the big storm Monday morning.  We could see wind-chill in negative  teens by  Monday morning. 

First let look at the 500 mb Height Anomaly maps from the GFS, Euro, and Canadian models. These show the air temperatures from the ground to around 18,000 ft. Each will show cold artic air moving in from Canada into Kentucky.

Time period covered is from late Saturday night into Monday morning. First the GFS.

 

The European Model

 

The Canadian Model

 

Notice all three are showing the artic air mass moving into Kentucky but the difference is they differ somewhat on how cold it will be.

The GFS temperature and wind-chill maps.

 

 

The European

 

 

The Canadian comes in colder that either the GFS or Euro.

 

 

Now for the possible snow that will break out on the leading edge of the arctic air.

The GFS

 

The Euro

 

The Canadian

 

The exact track is still in question along with possible snow accumulation are still in question. I will update everyone tomorrow.

 

[PP1]

@nWo How do you see this playing out now?

[nWo]

Enjoy the fairly nice temperature of the low to mid 40s during the day on Saturday. Some could see a 20 degree drop in temperatures Saturday evening. A low pressure system will pass over Kentucky along with a cold front that will cause precipitation  to break out over much of Kentucky. The rain should transition over to snow during Saturday night. How much in accumulations will depend on how fast the cold air mass takes over the rain.  There is still some difference between the models. They're not getting a good read on how fast the rain will changeover.

The GFS is showing the cold air moving in a little faster than the NAM so it's possible snow accumulation field is a little wider.

 

 

Here's what it is showing for precipitation.

 

 

Here's the NAM

 

 

Here is what both models are showing for snow accumulations.

GFS

 

The NAM

 

I will be update later this evening with my first call for snow for Saturday night.

[nWo]

Here's my first call for possible snow Saturday night. First, let me say it depends on the track which may change one way or the other. So here's what I'm seeing. As of tonight, it appears that those along the Tennessee border and the higher elevations of southeastern Kentucky could see 2-4 inches. Local higher amounts will be possible in southeast Kentucky. Sections of western Kentucky could see 1-3 inches. Central and northern Kentucky could see a dusting to 2 inches.

Once again it all depends on the track of the storm. Check back in the morning  for update.

[nWo]

It appears that the snow accumulation totals have come down a little bit.  Also this appears to be a bookend system. By that I mean the best chance for accumulating snow looks to be in both western and eastern Kentucky. A general 1-3 inches will be possible in both areas. Sections of eastern Kentucky could see upwards of around  4 inches. This is in the higher elevations. Other areas not mentioned could see from a dusting to around 1 inch.

This map is from the Weather Prediction Center and it shows the impact of this system. It is from limited to minor impact for Saturday night into day on Sunday.

I will update later.

 

[nWo]

I'm going to stay with the bookend 1-3 inches for sections of western Kentucky and most of eastern Kentucky. The heaviest snow accumulations appears to possible east of I-75 and south of I-64. Portions of southeast Kentucky could see 3-5 inches especially in the higher elevations.

 

 

Here is the winter weather impact map.

 

 

I'll update again later this evening

[nWo]

I'm not going to make any changes to my last forecast. The precipitation is starting out as rain in western Kentucky and southcentral Kentucky. The rain should switch over to snow in western Kentucky around 9 or so central time tonight. The change over in eastern Kentucky should start after midnight.