I'm really looking forward to this year's state tournament. Reading about all the different teams in these pill threads is getting me ready! I hope Henderson County, Taylor County, and several more that's been a big part of the discussion on here make it to Rupp.

 

I hate that those two will likely meet in Round 1. Love the matchup. Hate it is on Day 1.

Much like the Henry Clay and Bullitt East games, Holmes also blew a big lead against Madison Central. That has been a theme with them this year. They get a lead and seem to coast from there. I've said since the preseason, how well they defend will determine how far they can go. From a pure talent standpoint, there aren't many teams around the state better than them. Bolden, McClendon, Mullins, and Avery are as good of a foursome as you're going to come across.

 

I'd like to see Holmes against Henry Clay and Bullitt East again..they pretty much gave those games away, especially the Bullitt East game. They were up 11 with 2 mins left and completely fell apart.

 

The Ballard game they played without Avery (14 & 7 per game) for 25 minutes yet only lost by 12 and led at the half. If you're going to give Dunbar a pass for missing kids, you can't ignore that or the fact that they beat Dixie, a team who handled Dunbar, without Mullins. (4th leading scorer at 11 ppg)

 

A good argument can be made for a lot of teams in the 17-20 range. I'd have Holmes somewhere in that range given their last 18 games. Call it bias, whatever you want. But IMO (key...MY OPINION) there aren't 20 teams in KY better than them RIGHT NOW.

 

I guess I'll let you guys win and go with "we will know more after Friday."

 

Agree with most of what you've said and agree 110% on the bolded. Didn't know that Dixie was down a kid who averages double figures in that game, which does change things a little.

 

I understand what you are saying about Holmes blowing leads, but that's part of the game too. Just using Dunbar as an example:

 

Played Station, they got a combined 25 from Williams and Hollingsworth, which is usually what they'll get from one alone, but they still tied it going into the fourth and only lost by 9 after Station hit their FT's. Played Lexington Catholic, were 2/13 from three against them for a total of 15%. Over their past 10 games, including that one, they've shot around 31%.

 

Blowing leads, bad shooting nights, foul trouble, those are just one of those things.

 

I'm in complete agreement with you that Holmes could show up and look or even be the part of a top 20 team. Bolden. Lots of talent. Listerman. Plenty of things to like. Might be cliche' but I just want to see them beat someone else before they move up. Doesn't mean they are a bad team, just that I don't have a lot of name recognition for their wins right now if I'm going to firmly say "top 20".

I'm really looking forward to this year's state tournament. Reading about all the different teams in these pill threads is getting me ready! I hope Henderson County, Taylor County, and several more that's been a big part of the discussion on here make it to Rupp.

 

^ Meant to write "poll threads". Can't edit from my phone.

And the same could be said about Southwestern...say what you want about the way Holmes lost to Mason Co (I can guarantee if that game is played again in a few weeks at Rupp Arena, we see nowhere close to the same result) but they have taken care of business against teams they are supposed to beat, unlike Southwestern, who has losses to Pulaski CO, Madison Central, and Waggener.

 

How many significant KY wins does Holmes have? Not to mention the close games against average teams.

Had Simmons and Washington not fouled out Henderson County very likely would have won that game. Both players fouled out late in the 4th quarter.

 

......and had the CovCath players gave "fist-bumps" to the NewCath players the Breds would have won.

 

Disclaimer: just adding to your scenario PP92

Owensboro is getting ready for some big tests:

 

Next 4 games:

 

@ Bowling Green

@ Trinity

Hopkinsville

@ Henderson County

 

Wow

Not trying to pick on you Walter, because I love discussing the game with you, but here are my thoughts on that:

 

If it's based on the Newport Central Catholic team that I've seen a couple of times and the Knott County Central team that I've seen many times, then yes, I think that it would be wrong.

 

Not saying that Newport Central Catholic couldn't beat KCC, just that I'd rank KCC higher.

 

My problem with NCC: how many kids do they have who can really score the ball? Looking at their stats, I see 3 definite and 1 maybe. McDonald, Pangallo, and Weyer can all score. Moeves has been up and down when I've watched if you only have 4 kids who can score at all and he's going to be your #4 and Pangallo your #3 in that group. No one else they have is someone I'd worry about getting more than 10 on me.

 

Box scores from any tight NCC game (LCA, Cov Cath, Waggener, Ballard, Doss, etc.). You'll see 1 kid who gets about 20 per (McDonald), 1 kid who gets around 15 (Weyer), and Pangallo who has a mix of scores that probably average to just under 10, Moeves who definitely averages under 10, then lots of 2's and 3's from everyone else.

 

Hard to play four on five offensively, especially when you want to run most of your things through your bigs, because most good teams will be capable of doubling off whoever else into the post and daring that player to beat them. It's even tougher if one of NCC's four is off and you begin to look more like 3 on 5.

 

I'm sure NCC has a kid capable of just standing there and hitting wide open 3's, but that player also has to defend and against good teams, will see a fair rush put on his shot.

 

I do think NCC is a good team, and that they would be a GREAT team if they had one more kid, particularly a wing, who could provide enough scoring to push Moeves, who I don't think is a bad player at all, into the #5 scoring role on offense and letting him do his thing everywhere else. That's not a knock on Moeves or any of the NCC bench players, just what I see separating them from lots of the teams around them.

 

If you aren't super athletic, which on the whole neither Covington Catholic or Newport Central Catholic really is, then you'd better have some nice balance. In looking at Covington Catholic's scores, you'll see a balance much closer to an 17/18 leading, 15/16 second, 10/14 third, 8/12 fourth, 6/8 fifth, then some 2's and 1's. IMO, huge difference in that and the 18/22 leading, 18/15 second, 8/10 third, 6/8 fourth, and 4/2 fifth, with maybe one more 2 or 1 then 0's.

 

If Cov Cath's lower offensive outputs from their #4 or #5 scorer are somewhere in the 2-6 range, then it's probably because it's a game where their top 3 have all been at or near 15-20, (ex. Wilmington: 19, 19, 16, 10, and 4, or Conner: 28, 19, 14, 9, and 3).

 

If it isn't that, then's it a game like PRP (which seems like an outlier): 29, 14, 9, 8, and 5 with nothing off the bench, or Holmes: 16, 10, 10, 6, 5, 5, and 2. Take the Holmes game for example. I know seven bench points doesn't seem like a ton, but I doubt there are many close NCC games where you see three kids in double figures, no starter under 5, and more than 5 points off the bench.

 

I say PRP is an outlier because they took 52 shots that game and 34 of those came from 2 players, with three others all attempting 5 and three others attempting 1.

 

Even taking Cov Cath's outlier, compare it to NCC's #5, 6, & 7 spots (in terms of scoring) taking 2, 1, and 0 shots (with no one else even attempting one) vs LCA. Ironically, one of NCC's better examples for kids just putting up shots was their attempts being: 17, 7, 5, 5, 2, 2, 1. Three kids on the bench put up a total of 9 shots, but Pangallo only had 1 attempt and the three lowest combined to go 1 of 5 (and only 2 points from the field came off the bench).

 

It might not seem as though there's a huge disparity in the distribution of points and shots between Cov Cath and NCC, but those numbers are fairly significant, especially when you consider that Cov Cath averages fewer points per game overall than NCC, but still outranks them at practically every spot #3-8 in terms of average attempts and points scored.

 

That's the one thing I see separating NCC from most teams. #1 Option: 1 really good scorer. #2 Option: 1 kid who is a really good scorer coming in just behind him. #3 Option: 1 really good basketball player who doesn't put up a ton of points each time out but does everything well, runs the team and gets scorers involved. #4 Option: 1 kid who is a good player but is in the same boat as the third in terms of scoring. Options #5-8: kids that I'm probably daring to shoot and guarding them once they make one.

 

Just curious, what NewCath games have you seen this year?

He will be back Friday night vs Webster County.

Does the poll take into consideration teams who's losses may be due to having key players out for a short time with injuries? It's possible Henderson County is still #2 if the Taylor County loss was aided by Henderson's big guy not playing.

 

Also, has anyone said when he will be able to play again?

Just curious, what NewCath games have you seen this year?

 

Full games: LCA this season, at Lexington Catholic a few times last year with essentially the same team (Cordia and then parts of the Lafayette and Knott Co Central games), and I want to say part of the Covington Catholic regional semi-final last year as well. Otherwise, some bits and pieces of them at the All A this year, but none of the games besides LCA were really ones I'd say I watched a lot of because they weren't really competitive, though I did watch a fair portion of the Monroe Co game.

I think Mason Co deserves to be up higher with the statement win against GRC Friday. If Mason takes care of Nicholas, Harrison & Woodford this week, where do they stand?

I think Mason Co deserves to be up higher with the statement win against GRC Friday. If Mason takes care of Nicholas, Harrison & Woodford this week, where do they stand?

 

I think where Mason is right now is as high as they should go for the time being. They've beaten 1 team in the Top 20 & that was #20 Dunbar early in the year when Dunbar had guys out. The Holmes win is their signature victory of the year, especially considering the Royals weren't at full strength, yet they handled the Bulldogs. While I agree with you that the GRC win was a statement win, I think it was more of a 10th Region statement win than it was a statewide statement win.

 

Mason County lost its other 2 games against teams currently ranked: LexCath & Lincoln County, yet they are ranked ahead of Lincoln. In my opinion, this poll has the Royals right about where they need to be.

Owensboro is getting ready for some big tests:

 

Next 4 games:

 

@ Bowling Green

@ Trinity

Hopkinsville

@ Henderson County

 

Very good possibility they will go 0-4 in those games.

Very good possibility they will go 0-4 in those games.

 

I have them going 2-2 at the very least.

I have them going 2-2 at the very least.

 

My guess is Owensboro beat Bowling Green and Hoptown while falling to Trinity and Henderson. My assumption is you have the same.

 

It'll be interesting to see if Owensboro and BG light up the nets from three again this time. Bowling Green shot their worst percentage of the year against the towers inside for Owensboro, and stayed in the game thanks to 9/20 shooting from three, which equals their most makes of the year. Owensboro for their part was 10/21 from three.

If you make it to the Sweet Sixteen, which team which you least like to play in Rupp?