All I will say is if Holmes played consistent D they would be a top 15 team imo. It seems like they just play when they think they need too.:idunno:

Classic.:lol2:

 

 

Because this was your post in the 1-27-15 poll:

 

I'd go

 

Ballard

KCC

Taylor Co

Covcath

Henderson Co

 

Compare scores all you want but TC would be a very tough match up for Covcath

 

Doesn't change my opinion that they were overrated. But at the same time you can't ignore the fact that they were 18-1 at the time and hadn't played anyone other than Covcath to debunk the theory that they were overrated. You should know my feelings on these mountain teams who beat up on terrible region teams from the Elliott Co days....

 

KCC is good but aren't going to beat too many elite teams with only two players (Hall/Justice).

 

Am I wrong in saying that KCC would be the third best team in the 9th behind Newcath and Covcath RIGHT NOW?

And the same could be said about Southwestern...say what you want about the way Holmes lost to Mason Co (I can guarantee if that game is played again in a few weeks at Rupp Arena, we see nowhere close to the same result) but they have taken care of business against teams they are supposed to beat, unlike Southwestern, who has losses to Pulaski CO, Madison Central, and Waggener.

 

You are severely underrating Madison Central & Waggener, IMO.

 

 

Madison Central:

 

Holmes only beat Mad Cen, without Sam Jones (probably their best player and a consensus Top 6-10 player in the 11th Region) by 3 at home.

 

Madison Central, again without Jones, went to Mason County and only lost by 7. That's the same Mason County that smoked Holmes (though I know it was kind of one of those nights for Holmes).

 

In the past ten days, Madison Central also went to Trinity and only lost by 10.

 

This past week, Central just lost to Henry Clay team by 2. That's the same Henry Clay team that has beaten Holmes at Holmes, and they are playing even better now.

 

I wouldn't be shocked at all if Madison Central beats Lexington Catholic when they visit the Reservation tomorrow night.

 

 

Waggener:

 

Yes, they have 9 losses. Of those 9: Trinity (blowout), Central (by 2), Taylor County (by 10), Newport Central Catholic (by 16), Ballard (by 12), Doss (by 1), and Manual (by 7) were the teams responsible. 7 of their 9 losses came to teams who've practically lived in the top 20 all season, with most of those being near the top. The two other losses were to St. Xavier, who is no pushover, and the only really bad one is on the road to Jeffersontown.

 

Take away both Trinity and NCC, and that's five Top 20 losses by a total of 32 points. Not shabby considering that the #1, #2, #9, #11, and #12 teams are what makes up those five. That's not really a team I'd consider sneezing at, regardless of what their record is.

Holmes was the last team out.

 

Since January 9th with Dunbar at full strength they have defeated:

 

LexCath

Boyle County

Henry Clay

Lafayette

Manual

Doss

 

They have lost to:

 

LCA

LexCath

Wayne County

Bryan Station

 

 

All great wins. No bad losses. The key words are Dunbar at full strength and until the LCA game that they dropped on January 9th they were not at full strength for a myriad of reasons. One could argue that since January 10th Dunbar has the best quality wins amongst all teams in the state. Who else has defeated 5 ranked teams in that span and while Henry Clay isn't ranked they aren't a gimme game by any stretch of the imagination.

 

Thanks. Should have read the whole thing before posting and saved myself some time.

 

Would also add that the Lafayette game isn't a gimme either, especially at their place. If you don't believe me, ask Lexington Catholic, LCA, Bryan Station, or Henry Clay. Those are all teams that have lost to them since January 1st.

These certainly look a lot better than Litkenhouse, Cantrall and the AP Polls do right now.

Doesn't change my opinion that they were overrated. But at the same time you can't ignore the fact that they were 18-1 at the time and hadn't played anyone other than Covcath to debunk the theory that they were overrated. You should know my feelings on these mountain teams who beat up on terrible region teams from the Elliott Co days....

 

KCC is good but aren't going to beat too many elite teams with only two players (Hall/Justice).

 

Am I wrong in saying that KCC would be the third best team in the 9th behind Newcath and Covcath RIGHT NOW?

I remember your stance on Elliott, and you were wrong about them. Fact. Beat Ballard, took your Holmes team to the very end when Holmes was the best in the state. And if you're gonna gripe about a team being overrated and that you've said it all along, how can you have ranked them second. Your backpedal on your hindsight bike is in good working order.

As for the comparison if KCC was in the 9th, please, I'll say that they'd have knocked some of those teams off as well. NCC, CC and KCC would beat up on each other. Put NCC or CC in the 7th, and run that gauntlet night in and night out and see how they'd be ranked. You want to put a nice little bow on it and it's just not that simple when teams are from other regions and don't face each other often enough to guage against one another. You yourself said that NCC is a bad matchup for Holmes. KCC is a bad matchup for others.

I'm done, lest I approach JW24 stylings.

The win over Henderson County has gotten them there. I know Henderson County was missing their big man that game but to date Taylor County has only lost to one KY team against a pretty good schedule.

 

Does the poll take into consideration teams who's losses may be due to having key players out for a short time with injuries? It's possible Henderson County is still #2 if the Taylor County loss was aided by Henderson's big guy not playing.

 

Also, has anyone said when he will be able to play again?

You are severely underrating Madison Central & Waggener, IMO.

 

 

Madison Central:

 

Holmes only beat Mad Cen, without Sam Jones (probably their best player and a consensus Top 6-10 player in the 11th Region) by 3 at home.

 

Madison Central, again without Jones, went to Mason County and only lost by 7. That's the same Mason County that smoked Holmes (though I know it was kind of one of those nights for Holmes).

 

In the past ten days, Madison Central also went to Trinity and only lost by 10.

 

This past week, Central just lost to Henry Clay team by 2. That's the same Henry Clay team that has beaten Holmes at Holmes, and they are playing even better now.

 

I wouldn't be shocked at all if Madison Central beats Lexington Catholic when they visit the Reservation tomorrow night.

 

 

Waggener:

 

Yes, they have 9 losses. Of those 9: Trinity (blowout), Central (by 2), Taylor County (by 10), Newport Central Catholic (by 16), Ballard (by 12), Doss (by 1), and Manual (by 7) were the teams responsible. 7 of their 9 losses came to teams who've practically lived in the top 20 all season, with most of those being near the top. The two other losses were to St. Xavier, who is no pushover, and the only really bad one is on the road to Jeffersontown.

 

Take away both Trinity and NCC, and that's five Top 20 losses by a total of 32 points. Not shabby considering that the #1, #2, #9, #11, and #12 teams are what makes up those five. That's not really a team I'd consider sneezing at, regardless of what their record is.

 

Much like the Henry Clay and Bullitt East games, Holmes also blew a big lead against Madison Central. That has been a theme with them this year. They get a lead and seem to coast from there. I've said since the preseason, how well they defend will determine how far they can go. From a pure talent standpoint, there aren't many teams around the state better than them. Bolden, McClendon, Mullins, and Avery are as good of a foursome as you're going to come across.

 

I'd like to see Holmes against Henry Clay and Bullitt East again..they pretty much gave those games away, especially the Bullitt East game. They were up 11 with 2 mins left and completely fell apart.

 

The Ballard game they played without Avery (14 & 7 per game) for 25 minutes yet only lost by 12 and led at the half. If you're going to give Dunbar a pass for missing kids, you can't ignore that or the fact that they beat Dixie, a team who handled Dunbar, without Mullins. (4th leading scorer at 11 ppg)

 

A good argument can be made for a lot of teams in the 17-20 range. I'd have Holmes somewhere in that range given their last 18 games. Call it bias, whatever you want. But IMO (key...MY OPINION) there aren't 20 teams in KY better than them RIGHT NOW.

 

I guess I'll let you guys win and go with "we will know more after Friday."

And the same could be said about Southwestern...say what you want about the way Holmes lost to Mason Co (I can guarantee if that game is played again in a few weeks at Rupp Arena, we see nowhere close to the same result) but they have taken care of business against teams they are supposed to beat, unlike Southwestern, who has losses to Pulaski CO, Madison Central, and Waggener.

 

If both squads are as good as you/we/people think, maybe we will get the chance to find out.

 

Lots of open water to cross between now and then for both teams, though.:thumb:

Does the poll take into consideration teams who's losses may be due to having key players out for a short time with injuries? It's possible Henderson County is still #2 if the Taylor County loss was aided by Henderson's big guy not playing.

 

Also, has anyone said when he will be able to play again?

 

Had Simmons and Washington not fouled out Henderson County very likely would have won that game. Both players fouled out late in the 4th quarter.

Much like the Henry Clay and Bullitt East games, Holmes also blew a big lead against Madison Central. That has been a theme with them this year. They get a lead and seem to coast from there. I've said since the preseason, how well they defend will determine how far they can go. From a pure talent standpoint, there aren't many teams around the state better than them. Bolden, McClendon, Mullins, and Avery are as good of a foursome as you're going to come across.

 

I'd like to see Holmes against Henry Clay and Bullitt East again..they pretty much gave those games away, especially the Bullitt East game. They were up 11 with 2 mins left and completely fell apart.

 

The Ballard game they played without Avery (14 & 7 per game) for 25 minutes yet only lost by 12 and led at the half. If you're going to give Dunbar a pass for missing kids, you can't ignore that or the fact that they beat Dixie, a team who handled Dunbar, without Mullins. (4th leading scorer at 11 ppg)

 

A good argument can be made for a lot of teams in the 17-20 range. I'd have Holmes somewhere in that range given their last 18 games. Call it bias, whatever you want. But IMO (key...MY OPINION) there aren't 20 teams in KY better than them RIGHT NOW.

 

I guess I'll let you guys win and go with "we will know more after Friday."

 

Nothing wrong with that. IMO there aren't 10 teams better than Boyle County.

15-20 are easily the hardest spots to fill each week. No easy answers at all in that range.

Doesn't change my opinion that they were overrated. But at the same time you can't ignore the fact that they were 18-1 at the time and hadn't played anyone other than Covcath to debunk the theory that they were overrated. You should know my feelings on these mountain teams who beat up on terrible region teams from the Elliott Co days....

 

KCC is good but aren't going to beat too many elite teams with only two players (Hall/Justice).

 

Am I wrong in saying that KCC would be the third best team in the 9th behind Newcath and Covcath RIGHT NOW?

 

Not trying to pick on you Walter, because I love discussing the game with you, but here are my thoughts on that:

 

If it's based on the Newport Central Catholic team that I've seen a couple of times and the Knott County Central team that I've seen many times, then yes, I think that it would be wrong.

 

Not saying that Newport Central Catholic couldn't beat KCC, just that I'd rank KCC higher.

 

My problem with NCC: how many kids do they have who can really score the ball? Looking at their stats, I see 3 definite and 1 maybe. McDonald, Pangallo, and Weyer can all score. Moeves has been up and down when I've watched if you only have 4 kids who can score at all and he's going to be your #4 and Pangallo your #3 in that group. No one else they have is someone I'd worry about getting more than 10 on me.

 

Box scores from any tight NCC game (LCA, Cov Cath, Waggener, Ballard, Doss, etc.). You'll see 1 kid who gets about 20 per (McDonald), 1 kid who gets around 15 (Weyer), and Pangallo who has a mix of scores that probably average to just under 10, Moeves who definitely averages under 10, then lots of 2's and 3's from everyone else.

 

Hard to play four on five offensively, especially when you want to run most of your things through your bigs, because most good teams will be capable of doubling off whoever else into the post and daring that player to beat them. It's even tougher if one of NCC's four is off and you begin to look more like 3 on 5.

 

I'm sure NCC has a kid capable of just standing there and hitting wide open 3's, but that player also has to defend and against good teams, will see a fair rush put on his shot.

 

I do think NCC is a good team, and that they would be a GREAT team if they had one more kid, particularly a wing, who could provide enough scoring to push Moeves, who I don't think is a bad player at all, into the #5 scoring role on offense and letting him do his thing everywhere else. That's not a knock on Moeves or any of the NCC bench players, just what I see separating them from lots of the teams around them.

 

If you aren't super athletic, which on the whole neither Covington Catholic or Newport Central Catholic really is, then you'd better have some nice balance. In looking at Covington Catholic's scores, you'll see a balance much closer to an 17/18 leading, 15/16 second, 10/14 third, 8/12 fourth, 6/8 fifth, then some 2's and 1's. IMO, huge difference in that and the 18/22 leading, 18/15 second, 8/10 third, 6/8 fourth, and 4/2 fifth, with maybe one more 2 or 1 then 0's.

 

If Cov Cath's lower offensive outputs from their #4 or #5 scorer are somewhere in the 2-6 range, then it's probably because it's a game where their top 3 have all been at or near 15-20, (ex. Wilmington: 19, 19, 16, 10, and 4, or Conner: 28, 19, 14, 9, and 3).

 

If it isn't that, then's it a game like PRP (which seems like an outlier): 29, 14, 9, 8, and 5 with nothing off the bench, or Holmes: 16, 10, 10, 6, 5, 5, and 2. Take the Holmes game for example. I know seven bench points doesn't seem like a ton, but I doubt there are many close NCC games where you see three kids in double figures, no starter under 5, and more than 5 points off the bench.

 

I say PRP is an outlier because they took 52 shots that game and 34 of those came from 2 players, with three others all attempting 5 and three others attempting 1.

 

Even taking Cov Cath's outlier, compare it to NCC's #5, 6, & 7 spots (in terms of scoring) taking 2, 1, and 0 shots (with no one else even attempting one) vs LCA. Ironically, one of NCC's better examples for kids just putting up shots was their attempts being: 17, 7, 5, 5, 2, 2, 1. Three kids on the bench put up a total of 9 shots, but Pangallo only had 1 attempt and the three lowest combined to go 1 of 5 (and only 2 points from the field came off the bench).

 

It might not seem as though there's a huge disparity in the distribution of points and shots between Cov Cath and NCC, but those numbers are fairly significant, especially when you consider that Cov Cath averages fewer points per game overall than NCC, but still outranks them at practically every spot #3-8 in terms of average attempts and points scored.

 

That's the one thing I see separating NCC from most teams. #1 Option: 1 really good scorer. #2 Option: 1 kid who is a really good scorer coming in just behind him. #3 Option: 1 really good basketball player who doesn't put up a ton of points each time out but does everything well, runs the team and gets scorers involved. #4 Option: 1 kid who is a good player but is in the same boat as the third in terms of scoring. Options #5-8: kids that I'm probably daring to shoot and guarding them once they make one.

:ohbrother:

I'm really looking forward to this year's state tournament. Reading about all the different teams in these pill threads is getting me ready! I hope Henderson County, Taylor County, and several more that's been a big part of the discussion on here make it to Rupp.