Maybe I am wrong but I just don't see this mass movement of teams wanting to play up in class. I understand why a few will, but I don't see it being a widespread issue.

Its easy to sit here and talk about other people moving up and all but the schools are going to look out for their own best interest. I predict Johnson Central to do everything they can to stay away from Highlands and very little movement otherwise.

Maybe I am wrong but I just don't see this mass movement of teams wanting to play up in class. I understand why a few will, but I don't see it being a widespread issue.

 

I predict that there will be many requests from 4A teams in the East to move up in class. 4A East is tough. 5A East is weak. There will have to be some type of parameters set other than, 'we want to move up'. With 6 classes, I really dislike the idea of allowing teams to move up in class. It is too easy to dodge people.

I look forward to later this week to find out how close my projections are to the actual numbers. For now, continuing to speculate, I have twelve schools as being in a different alignment because the KHSAA decided on four year numbers rather than two year numbers. I'm not certain how Thomas Nelson will be handled (they didn't exist beyond last two years so I just duplicated their first year enrollment for the alignment), so discounting them (and also making no attempt whatsoever to predict teams that take advantage of movement up in class), these are 11 teams that differed:

 

-Edmonson County (Currently 3A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 2A under 2 year enrollment. +4.7% enrollment using 4 year average)

-Rockcastle County (Currently 4A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 3A under 2 year enrollment. +4.5% enrollment using 4 year average)

-Scott (Currently 5A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 4A under 2 year enrollment. +4.2% enrollment using 4 year average)

-Magoffin County (Currently 3A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 2A under 2 year enrollment. +4.1% enrollment using 4 year average)

-Hopkinsville (Currently 5A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 4A under 2 year enrollment. +2.0% enrollment using 4 year average)

 

-Madisonville-North Hopkins (Currently 4A, projected to 5A under 4 year enrollment, would have projected to remain in 4A under 2 year enrollment. -1.7% enrollment using 4 year average)

-Christian Academy-Louisville (Currently 2A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 3A under 2 year enrollment. -2.1% enrollment using 4 year average)

-Covington Catholic (Currently 4A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 5A under 2 year enrollment. -5.4% enrollment using 4 year average)

-Wayne County (Currently 3A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 4A under 2 year enrollment. -6.7% enrollment using 4 year average)

Wayne County might be a special case given they absorbed Monticello and made a huge leap in enrollment as a result. Possible the KHSAA moves them up anyway.

-Valley (Currently 4A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 5A under 2 year enrollment. -7.2% enrollment using 4 year average)

-South Warren (Currently 3A, projected to 4A under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 5A under 2 year enrollment. -8.5% enrollment using 4 year average)

 

 

Aside from Eminence, whose enrollment percentage would obviously swing wildly due to very low numbers, South Warren, Valley, and Wayne County represent the largest negative percentage changes between their 4 year and 2 year averages - i.e. they are actually much larger in the past two years but will remain in a lower class because of the expansion to four. Only Doss, Jeffersontown, and Paris (low numbers) had a larger negative percentage change than Covington Catholic. An example of the impact, using the enrollment for this current year, Covington Catholic (573) has 43% more males enrolled than Rockcastle County (400), both kept in 4A by the decision.

 

The largest positive percentage changes didn't have the same impact. Edmonson County is just the 26th highest positive percentage change between 4 year and 2 year averages - i.e. smaller in the past two years than they are based on four year averages. Four teams above them (Monroe County [+8.0%], John Hardin [+6.8%], Boyle County [+6.8%], East Ridge [+5.9%]) all drop in class anyway, but would have done so far more comfortably using the past two years. Monroe County in particular may be the largest 2A school, instead of the 7th largest using the past two years. Boyle County is very close to the cutoff as well.

Its easy to sit here and talk about other people moving up and all but the schools are going to look out for their own best interest. I predict Johnson Central to do everything they can to stay away from Highlands and very little movement otherwise.

There is no question JC will petition to move up.

 

I'm wondering what will happen if the ultimate irony presents itself and several teams in 4A petition to move up, and then find out that Highlands also is moving up to 5A? Would they be allowed to withdraw their option and remain in 4A? It could be a circus.

There is no question JC will petition to move up.

 

I'm wondering what will happen if the ultimate irony presents itself and several teams in 4A petition to move up, and then find out that Highlands also is moving up to 5A? Would they be allowed to withdraw their option and remain in 4A? It could be a circus.

 

Personally, I'm counting on that happening (though I'm sure it won't). There would be no shortage of laughing in my household that night.

I think they go to 2A.

 

I hope they don't. But I understand why they would want too. It seems to make sense to me.

 

As far as staying in 1A just to win titles I dont get the impression they are built that way.

This thread could get long. I see a lot of angles to discuss with this allowance of moving up voluntarily.

 

1. If 5 schools want to move up from one class, does that mean the bottom 5 in the higher class get the option to move down?

 

2. How far up the enrollment ranks will the KHSAA go to ask a team about moving down if none of the schools below them in enrollment want to drop? Could the 10th smallest school be allowed to move down if the other 9 below them all want to stay in class?

 

3. If none of the bottom 5 want to move down, what happens to the lower class? Will there be byes in the playoffs if a class is low in numbers?

 

4. Conversely, if a class gets very large, I assume that means more teams will not qualify for the playoffs in that class.

 

5. How will 1A and 6A be handled with the set 32 team number? Is that no longer in effect? Could 6A end up with 40 teams and/or 1A with 25?

 

6. Will teams collude with each other about moving up and/or moving down? Or will they be hush hush (e.g. Highlands) so teams will not change classes to avoid them?

 

Those are a few questions that come immediately to mind with this new approach by the KHSAA.

 

From what I understand it will stay at 32 teams. For every team that plays up they will drop down the next school on the list.

From what I understand it will stay at 32 teams. For every team that plays up they will drop down the next school on the list.

 

The school has to agree to play down. I assume if a 1A team wants to move up, they will start at the bottom and ask everyone in 2A if they want to move down until they find a taker.

Disagreement between local school systems and contract on cross district students means that Somerset could easily fall to 1A numbers over the next few years while still being in 2A for football.

I think they stay in 1A so that they can get back to winning championships on a regular basis. I don't think they can beat NCC and Mayfield to win a title.

 

Changed that for you :thumb:

There is no question JC will petition to move up.

 

I'm wondering what will happen if the ultimate irony presents itself and several teams in 4A petition to move up, and then find out that Highlands also is moving up to 5A? Would they be allowed to withdraw their option and remain in 4A? It could be a circus.

 

What district teams would that put johnson with though?

I look forward to later this week to find out how close my projections are to the actual numbers. For now, continuing to speculate, I have twelve schools as being in a different alignment because the KHSAA decided on four year numbers rather than two year numbers. I'm not certain how Thomas Nelson will be handled (they didn't exist beyond last two years so I just duplicated their first year enrollment for the alignment), so discounting them (and also making no attempt whatsoever to predict teams that take advantage of movement up in class), these are 11 teams that differed:

 

-Edmonson County (Currently 3A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 2A under 2 year enrollment. +4.7% enrollment using 4 year average)

-Rockcastle County (Currently 4A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 3A under 2 year enrollment. +4.5% enrollment using 4 year average)

-Scott (Currently 5A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 4A under 2 year enrollment. +4.2% enrollment using 4 year average)

-Magoffin County (Currently 3A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 2A under 2 year enrollment. +4.1% enrollment using 4 year average)

-Hopkinsville (Currently 5A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 4A under 2 year enrollment. +2.0% enrollment using 4 year average)

 

-Madisonville-North Hopkins (Currently 4A, projected to 5A under 4 year enrollment, would have projected to remain in 4A under 2 year enrollment. -1.7% enrollment using 4 year average)

-Christian Academy-Louisville (Currently 2A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 3A under 2 year enrollment. -2.1% enrollment using 4 year average)

-Covington Catholic (Currently 4A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 5A under 2 year enrollment. -5.4% enrollment using 4 year average)

-Wayne County (Currently 3A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 4A under 2 year enrollment. -6.7% enrollment using 4 year average)

Wayne County might be a special case given they absorbed Monticello and made a huge leap in enrollment as a result. Possible the KHSAA moves them up anyway.

-Valley (Currently 4A, projected to remain under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 5A under 2 year enrollment. -7.2% enrollment using 4 year average)

-South Warren (Currently 3A, projected to 4A under 4 year enrollment, would have projected as 5A under 2 year enrollment. -8.5% enrollment using 4 year average)

 

 

Aside from Eminence, whose enrollment percentage would obviously swing wildly due to very low numbers, South Warren, Valley, and Wayne County represent the largest negative percentage changes between their 4 year and 2 year averages - i.e. they are actually much larger in the past two years but will remain in a lower class because of the expansion to four. Only Doss, Jeffersontown, and Paris (low numbers) had a larger negative percentage change than Covington Catholic. An example of the impact, using the enrollment for this current year, Covington Catholic (573) has 43% more males enrolled than Rockcastle County (400), both kept in 4A by the decision.

 

The largest positive percentage changes didn't have the same impact. Edmonson County is just the 26th highest positive percentage change between 4 year and 2 year averages - i.e. smaller in the past two years than they are based on four year averages. Four teams above them (Monroe County [+8.0%], John Hardin [+6.8%], Boyle County [+6.8%], East Ridge [+5.9%]) all drop in class anyway, but would have done so far more comfortably using the past two years. Monroe County in particular may be the largest 2A school, instead of the 7th largest using the past two years. Boyle County is very close to the cutoff as well.

 

So are you projecting Boyle to drop to 3A with the new realignment?

So are you projecting Boyle to drop to 3A with the new realignment?

 

Yes. They would have been there in either a 2 year or 4 year format, it just would've been more comfortable had it just been two years. I have them down as a 4 year average of 410. Both Waggener (413.3) and Pendleton County (414) are teams in the class that are larger with Moore being my projected cutoff for the bottom of 4A (420.8).

What district teams would that put johnson with though?

 

No one close it would seem. They requested to be put in District 8 when making a play up request in 2011, which was Harlan County, Letcher County Central, Perry County Central, and Whitley County. Both Letcher County Central and Perry County Central are projected with 4A enrollments. That was true of Letcher County Central last time as well, but they requested to play up. If both of those teams played up to 5A, then those teams minus Whitley would fit pretty well with Johnson Central. If they don't play up and Johnson Central does, then it could be a bit of a journey. Harlan County fits well with Whitley County and the two Laurels. Pulaski County and Southwestern are a package deal and Lincoln fits with them - you'd figure Madison Southern would stick there. The two Jessamines, Anderson County, Montgomery County, and Woodford County are definitely a district. So Johnson Central would have to make a haul to one of those districts.

 

For arguments sake if both Letcher County Central and Perry County Central played up with Johnson Central, then figure the two Laurel County schools stay with their current district. Whitley County might be put in that district while moving Madison Southern in with the Lexington area schools.