November 5, 201213 yr You think the polls are "that wrong" based on? I think the D turnout will be way less than it was in 08 and the R's will be out way more than 08. That Friday night turnout at Romney's event was huge. McCain was a terrible option and Obama had people fooled on hope and change and McCain still got 47%.
November 5, 201213 yr Possibly. That's why I use FiveThirtyEight who is an aggregator. I would ask why those who think a)Gov Romney will win and b)he will garner 300+ electoral votes believe that based on the trends and the aggregate numbers? The line of thought is just about every poll has over sampled democrats and if the polling was equal Romney would be ahead in just about every swing state.
November 5, 201213 yr Are you saying all of the polls that show the President ahead oversample Ds? How much are they oversampling? Read this. This is why I use this guy instead of individual polls. He accounts for all of the oversampling/leans. Nov. 3: Romney's Reason to Play for Pennsylvania - NYTimes.com I just looked at the Pew poll. According to Realclearpolitics the Pew poll as Obama +3. If I'm reading their data correctly they polled 843 Rs, 1007 Ds, and 761 Is. That's 6% more D then R.
November 5, 201213 yr Author I just looked at the Pew poll. According to Realclearpolitics the Pew poll as Obama +3. If I'm reading their data correctly they polled 843 Rs, 1007 Ds, and 761 Is. That's 6% more D then R. Interesting. Why do they poll 6% more D's than R's?
November 5, 201213 yr The line of thought is just about every poll has over sampled democrats and if the polling was equal Romney would be ahead in just about every swing state. That line of thought is not supported in fivethirtyeight. They know that , say, Rasmussen swings right. Others swing left. They take that into account.
November 5, 201213 yr I just looked at the Pew poll. According to Realclearpolitics the Pew poll as Obama +3. If I'm reading their data correctly they polled 843 Rs, 1007 Ds, and 761 Is. That's 6% more D then R. You can't ignore trends either. Let's say they always do that(I don't know if they do). If I remember correctly the President has picked up 3 points over time from what they originally showed. In other words, assuming the WAY they survey is consistent the voters have changed their minds towards the President.
November 5, 201213 yr Interesting. Why do they poll 6% more D's than R's? Isn't it obvious, their biased and in the bag for the POTUS. Don't know really. Are there more registered D's then R's? If so what %?
November 5, 201213 yr That line of thought is not supported in fivethirtyeight. They know that , say, Rasmussen swings right. Others swing left. They take that into account. Unless you are over sampling one way or the other what does it matter which way you swing? If Rush was doing a poll and he asked 200 D's, 200 R's, and 100 I's who they were voting for and it end up Romney 51% Obama 49% does it matter that he is as far right as you can be?
November 5, 201213 yr I just looked at the Pew poll. According to Realclearpolitics the Pew poll as Obama +3. If I'm reading their data correctly they polled 843 Rs, 1007 Ds, and 761 Is. That's 6% more D then R. Interesting. Why do they poll 6% more D's than R's? Isn't it obvious, their biased and in the bag for the POTUS. Don't know really. Are there more registered D's then R's? If so what %? Per a google search that turned up registration numbers from 2011 - Democrats 42 million 44% Republicans 30 million 31% Independents 24 million 25% So they overpoll Dems to try and get a true picture of the populace. If they polled R's and D's equally, it would not be accurate because it would not be a true picture of the voting public. If you look at those numbers, a 6% over polling of D's looks low but I assume they know what they are doing. Perhaps it is because a higher percentage of R's vote than D's. The number of independents surprised me.
November 5, 201213 yr Author Per a google search that turned up registration numbers from 2011 - Democrats 42 million Republicans 30 million Independents 24 million So they overpoll Dems to try and get a true picture of the populace. If they polled R's and D's equally, it would not be accurate because it would not be a true picture of the voting public. Thanks! :thumb:
November 5, 201213 yr Boy I hope it's all over tomorrow. LOL, I was just ready to create a thread with a poll asking if it will be over by Wednesday morning. I say no! Florida is already a mess, you would think they could have fixed all their issues in 12 years. Did you see Florida's ballot? WOW! it's long, the longest in their states history, too much reading for one ballot, no wonder the lines and wait is so long. Then throw in Ohio, and 100s of thousand provisional ballots, I say you can safely go to bed early tomorrow night and won't miss a thing. Edited November 5, 201213 yr by SportsGuy41017
November 5, 201213 yr If there are issues like what we had in 2000, then what a joke. To think 12 years after that we can't fix our voting process. SMH
November 5, 201213 yr The margin might be in dispute, but the winner will be known by the end of the night.
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