October 8, 201213 yr Author The reality is most people have already decided. Also correct. But the undecided segment, while small, will very likely determine the outcome of the race.
October 8, 201213 yr Also correct. But the undecided segment, while small, will very likely determine the outcome of the race. This plus how many people actually vote. In 2008 Obama had a great voter turnout which is unlikely to happen again this year.
October 8, 201213 yr Author This plus how many people actually vote. In 2008 Obama had a great voter turnout which is unlikely to happen again this year. I'm not really sure how turnout will be. Republicans seemed less than enthusiastic during the primaries. Will be interesting to see if/how that changes here in a few weeks.
October 8, 201213 yr I'm not really sure how turnout will be. Republicans seemed less than enthusiastic during the primaries. Will be interesting to see if/how that changes here in a few weeks. Politico reports that the Republicans currently have a 13 point advantage in enthusiasm which is exactly the same advantage that the democrats had in 2008. Surprising.
October 8, 201213 yr Politico reports that the Republicans currently have a 13 point advantage in enthusiasm which is exactly the same advantage that the democrats had in 2008. Surprising. If that is accurate, Romney wins.
October 8, 201213 yr @jimacostacnn: "Bounce: Pew Research Center poll Oct. 4-7 Likely voters Romney 49% Obama 45% Sampling error +/-3.4% pts.
October 8, 201213 yr Author Politico reports that the Republicans currently have a 13 point advantage in enthusiasm which is exactly the same advantage that the democrats had in 2008. Surprising. Wow! @jimacostacnn: "Bounce: Pew Research Center poll Oct. 4-7 Likely voters Romney 49% Obama 45% Sampling error +/-3.4% pts. As I mentioned earlier in the thread, Pew was the most accurate in 2004 & 2008. Of course that doesn't mean they'll enjoy similar success this year, but it's certainly worth noting.
October 9, 201213 yr The enthusiasm number is obviously a result of the debate, however the R's enjoyed a seven point advantage before that. We'll see if it holds up.
October 16, 201213 yr Author I have repeatedly stated that Romney has a more difficult electoral college road to the White House than Obama does. As the second debate draws near & as the polls tighten, let me explain. Real Clear Politics has the electoral count right now at 201-191 in favor of Obama. They have 11 states (146 electoral votes) designated as "Toss Ups": Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), & Wisconsin (10). Obama needs 69 of those electoral votes, while Romney needs 79. If you break these states down & look at their polling, you'll find that Obama has leads in almost every poll taken in Nevada (6), Iowa (6), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), & Pennsylvania (20). That's 58 more votes. And let's be real...those three bigger electoral states are always considered toss-ups, but always end up blue. So that takes Obama's total to 259--just 11 shy of 4 more years. Conversely, virtually every poll in North Carolina (15) & Colorado (9) favors Romney. That takes his total to 215--55 shy. Florida's 29 votes do seem to be leaning toward Romney as well. So for conversation sake, let's say he carries the state. That gives him 244--still 26 votes shy. That would put the race right now at 259-244 in favor of the President. And it leaves 35 electoral votes that seem most genuinely up for grabs right now: Ohio's 18, Virginia's 13, & New Hampshire's 4. Translation? Romney has to win both Ohio & Virginia. And remember, that's just assuming he wins Florida, which at the moment seems to ever-so-slightly favor him.
October 16, 201213 yr I have repeatedly stated that Romney has a more difficult electoral college road to the White House than Obama does. As the second debate draws near & as the polls tighten, let me explain. Real Clear Politics has the electoral count right now at 201-191 in favor of Obama. They have 11 states (146 electoral votes) designated as "Toss Ups": Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), & Wisconsin (10). Obama needs 69 of those electoral votes, while Romney needs 79. If you break these states down & look at their polling, you'll find that Obama has leads in almost every poll taken in Nevada (6), Iowa (6), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), & Pennsylvania (20). That's 58 more votes. And let's be real...those three bigger electoral states are always considered toss-ups, but always end up blue. So that takes Obama's total to 259--just 11 shy of 4 more years. Conversely, virtually every poll in North Carolina (15) & Colorado (9) favors Romney. That takes his total to 215--55 shy. Florida's 29 votes do seem to be leaning toward Romney as well. So for conversation sake, let's say he carries the state. That gives him 244--still 26 votes shy. That would put the race right now at 259-244 in favor of the President. And it leaves 35 electoral votes that seem most genuinely up for grabs right now: Ohio's 18, Virginia's 13, & New Hampshire's 4. Translation? Romney has to win both Ohio & Virginia. And remember, that's just assuming he wins Florida, which at the moment seems to ever-so-slightly favor him. FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right 's model has the President with 298 electoral votes and a 66% chance of winning. Both numbers are down from a few weeks ago.
October 16, 201213 yr Author FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right 's model has the President with 298 electoral votes and a 66% chance of winning. Both numbers are down from a few weeks ago. 298 or 289?
October 16, 201213 yr Author Good question. Read it earlier this morning. Might be 289. They show some state polling that differs (slightly) from RCP. I've had it 297-241 for a while now. If I had to guess today, I think it's 294-244. Romney can win, but it will take him holding Florida & sweeping both Ohio & Virginia. If the election was today, I would feel confident in saying Obama wins Ohio. Virginia I think could go either way. New Hampshire really doesn't matter. Iowa is the state that probably most surprises me. On the surface, it would seem to at least be leaning red, if not solidly red. Yet Obama leads in basically every poll right now.
October 16, 201213 yr They show some state polling that differs (slightly) from RCP. I've had it 297-241 for a while now. If I had to guess today, I think it's 294-244. Romney can win, but it will take him holding Florida & sweeping both Ohio & Virginia. If the election was today, I would feel confident in saying Obama wins Ohio. Virginia I think could go either way. New Hampshire really doesn't matter. Iowa is the state that probably most surprises me. On the surface, it would seem to at least be leaning red, if not solidly red. Yet Obama leads in basically every poll right now. Speaking as a Virginian, VA is very much in play right now. The RNC calls my house every night and once during the day (I guess since I'm not home but a couple times a week during the day and they call then. Mitt's bus was even down here in Southside the other day. There was a time when I first moved here and really until 2008 that VA ALWAYS went to the GOP without so much as a hesitation. I've always said the GOP needs to get a handle on why they could not keep states that formerly were solidly in their camp and not even Bill Clinton could move them.
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