About 8-10 states will determine the Presidency.

 

It's possible it could only come down to 4 states. I saw some analysis the other day where of the swing states that are out there, Obama could still win by carrying Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and either Virginia or North Carolina and eliminate the need to win either Florida or Ohio (lose both). Unless I misinterpreted the analysis. The reason the analysis was there was because of the high Hispanic vote in those first three states that I mentioned. Which really means if all of that were to happen, that the race would come down to Pennsylvania where Obama is up 8 points.

It's possible it could only come down to 4 states. I saw some analysis the other day where of the swing states that are out there, Obama could still win by carrying Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and either Virginia or North Carolina and eliminate the need to win either Florida or Ohio (lose both). Unless I misinterpreted the analysis. The reason the analysis was there was because of the high Hispanic vote in those first three states that I mentioned. Which really means if all of that were to happen, that the race would come down to Pennsylvania where Obama is up 8 points.

 

Real Clear Politics basically has 11 states up for grabs (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia & Wisconsin). The other 39 states are grouped as being Solid Obama, Leaning Obama, Solid Romney & Leaning Romney. The electoral totals of those 39 states have the race at 227 Obama vs. 170 Romney.

 

So Romney needs to find 100 electoral votes among those 141 remaining. It makes Florida a must win for Romney to have a chance & I think he'll take that state. I also think he likely wins (or has the best chance of winning) Arizona, Iowa, Missouri & North Carolina. That would give him 241--still 29 short.

 

Obama, on the other hand, needs to find only 43 from those remaining 141. I don't see him losing Michigan or Wisconsin. Those two always seem to be listed as toss-ups, but they end up going Blue. If that holds true, Obama would have 253.

 

That leaves Colorado's 9 electoral votes, along with Ohio's 18, Virginia's 13 & New Hampshire's 4. That would make Ohio a must win for Romney.

 

Of course, we're still a ways off from November, but it just seems to me that electorally speaking, Romney has a much more difficult road to the White House than does Obama.

 

For my money, I'm thinking the numbers (both popular & electoral voting) will shake out much like they did in 2004. Bush beat Kerry by 2.4% in the popular vote & in the electoral he won 286-251 (should have been 252, but there was a faithless elector in Minnesota). I'm going to say Obama wins by 2.5%-3% in the popular & 297-241 in the electoral vote.

 

Also, if you're looking at which poll is the best predictor...the Pew Research Poll pretty much nailed both the 2004 & 2008 elections in their final pre-election polling.

Nice analysis RP. Thanks.

What 75C said.

Polls seem to be pretty much the same since May. Do you think there will be a significant change in the polls, or will we see it nip-and-tuck until Election Day? Will both candidates get a bounce during/shortly after the conventions?

Polls seem to be pretty much the same since May. Do you think there will be a significant change in the polls, or will we see it nip-and-tuck until Election Day? Will both candidates get a bounce during/shortly after the conventions?

 

Both will get the normal bounce right after the conventions, then level out. I'd say it's going to be up in the air till election day.

Both will get the normal bounce right after the conventions, then level out. I'd say it's going to be up in the air till election day.

 

Romney did not get the huge bounce we normally see from the GOP convention. I've read a few prognostications suggesting that Obama will likely see very little bounce as well. Only time will tell on the latter.

 

Nationally, the race seems to be about where it's been for a while. But looking at some state-by-state polling, I do see a little bit of change. North Carolina seems to be drifting more toward Romney, while Florida seems to be leaning more toward Obama. I also saw a couple of polls showing Romney leading in Ohio. Granted, each of those polls are still extremely tight, but there does seem to be a shift--albeit a slight one when you look at the individual states.

Now that we have some polling to reflect the race since the first debate, we see that things are tightening up a bit. Both Gallup & Rasmussen have it as a tie nationally (47-47 in Gallup, 48-48 in Rasmussen). Politico has Obama up 49-48.

 

One set of numbers that I believe favors the President is Politico reporting that he has a 52% favorable rating, while Romney has a 47% rating.

 

What little I've seen from state polling shows Romney perhaps regaining the tiniest of leads in Florida, while the President seems to have a similar lead in Virginia. Ohio, according to a couple of Friday polls, is dead even (Rasumussen w/ Obama +1, WeAskAmerica w/ Romney +1). Colorado giving mixed signals, as two polls have Romney ahead 3-4 points, but another has Obama +4.

Real Clear Politics Average has Obama +1.1% (48.3%-47.2%). Prior to the debate, the President had a lead of approximately 3.5-4%.

Unless something wild happens it will at least be worth staying up and watching returns come election night. Still believe Obama will be re-elected, just a lot closer than it appeared a couple weeks back. With the recent hit he's taken in foreign policy what looked like a slam dunk debate for him a few weeks ago will end up being very contentious.

Unless something wild happens it will at least be worth staying up and watching returns come election night. Still believe Obama will be re-elected, just a lot closer than it appeared a couple weeks back. With the recent hit he's taken in foreign policy what looked like a slam dunk debate for him a few weeks ago will end up being very contentious.

 

I think I agree. People will be tuning in during the second debate to see if the President can regain his footing & conversely to see if the first debate was a mirage for Romney. When the race was a dead-heat for most of the summer, I thought the first debate would be the only one that mattered. But now I feel like this second one will be just as important.

 

I'm not backing off my predictions from earlier in the summer. I think Obama wins by about 2.5%-3% in the popular vote & I'm standing by my 297-241 electoral college outcome. Romney's electoral college climb is a bit more steep than the President's. But give Romney credit...he used the platform of that first debate to get himself back in this race.

If one of the canidates wins both New Hampshire and Virginia then you can go to bed. If they split it will be interesting.

I think I agree. People will be tuning in during the second debate to see if the President can regain his footing & conversely to see if the first debate was a mirage for Romney. When the race was a dead-heat for most of the summer, I thought the first debate would be the only one that mattered. But now I feel like this second one will be just as important.

 

I'm not backing off my predictions from earlier in the summer. I think Obama wins by about 2.5%-3% in the popular vote & I'm standing by my 297-241 electoral college outcome. Romney's electoral college climb is a bit more steep than the President's. But give Romney credit...he used the platform of that first debate to get himself back in this race.

 

The good news for Obama is that he just needs to show up to the next one to exceed expectations. Which is also sad that this matters and not what they are actually talking about.

The good news for Obama is that he just needs to show up to the next one to exceed expectations. Which is also sad that this matters and not what they are actually talking about.

 

The reality is most people have already decided.

The good news for Obama is that he just needs to show up to the next one to exceed expectations. Which is also sad that this matters and not what they are actually talking about.

 

Correct. An average performance by the President is all he needs for debate #2.