May 4, 201214 yr Two polls released today: GALLUP (NATIONAL): Obama 45% Romney 45% RASMUSSEN (NATIONAL): Obama 47% Romney 45% And one yesterday from DEMOCRACY CORPS (NATIONAL): Obama 47% Romney 47% Various state polls released yesterday (by Quinnipiac) show the following: Obama leading by 2% in Ohio & by 8% in Pennsylvania. Romney leading by 1% in Florida & by 9% in Arizona. A Washington Post poll shows Obama leading by 7% in Virginia. A good sign for the President is that he's creeping closely to the 50% mark in approval rating.
May 4, 201214 yr Florida, Florida, Florida as the late Tim Russart said. But also - Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. I think that Pennsylvania is tough for the Repubs since the Acorners will be working OT in Philly.
May 4, 201214 yr I follow several of those pollsters and it seems there is fairly consistent fluctuation in the numbers day to day, week to week. I wonder if it's just a symptom of being too early out, if people are indecisive or driven by the day-to-day kerfuffles, or if its just the margin of error (though most polls tend to be consistent).
May 4, 201214 yr Florida, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Nevada will determine the next POTUS. Way too early for these polls though.
May 4, 201214 yr Florida, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Nevada will determine the next POTUS. Way too early for these polls though. Agreed. Though I think soon enough they'll be indicative of who is "winning" or "losing" the race at the given moment moreso than they have been. That doesn't necessarily mean they can predict who will be ahead in November, though.
May 4, 201214 yr Author Florida, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Nevada will determine the next POTUS. Way too early for these polls though. Agreed. Though I think soon enough they'll be indicative of who is "winning" or "losing" the race at the given moment moreso than they have been. That doesn't necessarily mean they can predict who will be ahead in November, though. Agree on the polls not mattering a great deal right now. Around August or September is when I think you can start to see their true value. Still, I think it's interesting to see where the people presently stand.
May 14, 201214 yr Author Sunday, May 13th polling: GALLUP (National): Obama 46% Romney 45% RASMUSSEN (National): Obama 44% Romney 48%
May 15, 201214 yr Agree on the polls not mattering a great deal right now. Around August or September is when I think you can start to see their true value. Still, I think it's interesting to see where the people presently stand. RP,while the poll results this early are not necessarily indicative of who will win in November, they help Romney from a campaign donation perspective (many folks won't donate to a candidate that they think is unlikely to win and these early polls indicate Romney has a real chance). The close polls may also help attract the VP candidate that Romney wants, for the same reason.
May 15, 201214 yr Author RP,while the poll results this early are not necessarily indicative of who will win in November, they help Romney from a campaign donation perspective (many folks won't donate to a candidate that they think is unlikely to win and these early polls indicate Romney has a real chance). The close polls may also help attract the VP candidate that Romney wants, for the same reason. Good points
May 15, 201214 yr The RCP average is what I go by and what James Carville in his recent speech that I saw recommends. Obama 46.5% Romney 45.1%
May 23, 201214 yr Author Wednesday, May 23rd polling: GALLUP (National): Obama 46% Romney 46% RASMUSSEN (National): Obama 46% Romney 45% NBC/WALL STREET JOURNAL (National): Obama 47% Romney 43% REAL CLEAR POLITICS AVERAGE (National): Obama 45.5% Romney 43.8%
May 24, 201214 yr Author Romney has a 6 point lead in Florida. Always a key state. I feel confident Romney will win Florida, Indiana & very likely North Carolina. What I'm not so sure about is Ohio, Virginia, & Colorado.
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