November 5, 201213 yr I didn't put a paycheck on it, but I have some decent money on Romney +325 and even more on Romney +300 in Ohio. I am not a bettor so I am not always familiar with betting terminology. What does "+300 in Ohio" mean? Are you saying you would bet "decent money" that Gov Romney ends up with 325+ electoral votes?
November 5, 201213 yr Which predictions are under "these?" Sorry, should have read ALL of these predictions/polls.
November 5, 201213 yr I am not a bettor so I am not always familiar with betting terminology. What does "+300 in Ohio" mean? Are you saying you would bet "decent money" that Gov Romney ends up with 325+ electoral votes? +300 essentially means you bet 100 and you win 300 to get a total of 400 back. I bet Romney to win the election and to win Ohio. They didn't offer a Romney electoral vote play, but they do have an Obama one. I think Ohio goes to Romney by at least 2 points. If they offered a Romney 325 electoral votes it would be crazily priced so I would take a small flyer on it, but I don't think he will get to 325.
November 5, 201213 yr Sorry, should have read ALL of these predictions/polls. Possibly. That's why I use FiveThirtyEight who is an aggregator. I would ask why those who think a)Gov Romney will win and b)he will garner 300+ electoral votes believe that based on the trends and the aggregate numbers?
November 5, 201213 yr +300 essentially means you bet 100 and you win 300 to get a total of 400 back. I bet Romney to win the election and to win Ohio. They didn't offer a Romney electoral vote play, but they do have an Obama one. I think Ohio goes to Romney by at least 2 points. If they offered a Romney 325 electoral votes it would be crazily priced so I would take a small flyer on it, but I don't think he will get to 325. I just saw a list of 12 polls taken since 10/31 in Ohio. One had it dead even. The other 11 had Obama winning with the range between +2 and +8. You may want to hedge that bet.
November 5, 201213 yr +300 essentially means you bet 100 and you win 300 to get a total of 400 back. I bet Romney to win the election and to win Ohio. They didn't offer a Romney electoral vote play, but they do have an Obama one. I think Ohio goes to Romney by at least 2 points. If they offered a Romney 325 electoral votes it would be crazily priced so I would take a small flyer on it, but I don't think he will get to 325. Gotcha. So those offering the line are saying it's someone of a longshort for Gov Romney to win, correct?
November 5, 201213 yr Possibly. That's why I use FiveThirtyEight who is an aggregator. I would ask why those who think a)Gov Romney will win and b)he will garner 300+ electoral votes believe that based on the trends and the aggregate numbers? I believe Romney wins Ohio and it will be by at least 2. If the polls are that wrong in Ohio I'm guessing they can be wrong in other states.
November 5, 201213 yr Gotcha. So those offering the line are saying it's someone of a longshort for Gov Romney to win, correct? Oh yes. They are all very similar to the 538 numbers. But the betting public sets the numbers by how they have been betting throughout the entire year the betting sites only set the original number to bet against.
November 5, 201213 yr I believe Romney wins Ohio and it will be by at least 2. If the polls are that wrong in Ohio I'm guessing they can be wrong in other states. You think the polls are "that wrong" based on?
November 5, 201213 yr I just saw a list of 12 polls taken since 10/31 in Ohio. One had it dead even. The other 11 had Obama winning with the range between +2 and +8. You may want to hedge that bet. If the sample is overestimating D's by the % numbers I've seen, you can pretty much throw all those polls out the window. That said, I think President Obama takes Ohio by less than 1%.
November 5, 201213 yr You think the polls are "that wrong" based on? The oversampling of D's is why I feel they're wrong. Not wrong enough to cost the President the election, but enough to make him sweat it out a bit.
November 5, 201213 yr The oversampling of D's is why I feel they're wrong. Not wrong enough to cost the President the election, but enough to make him sweat it out a bit. Are you saying all of the polls that show the President ahead oversample Ds? How much are they oversampling? Read this. This is why I use this guy instead of individual polls. He accounts for all of the oversampling/leans. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/nov-3-romneys-reason-to-play-for-pennsylvania/#more-37144
November 5, 201213 yr Are you saying all of the polls that show the President ahead oversample Ds? How much are they oversampling? Read this. This is why I use this guy instead of individual polls. He accounts for all of the oversampling/leans. Nov. 3: Romney's Reason to Play for Pennsylvania - NYTimes.com I've read it, and yes, almost all polls (except for Rasmassuen) tend to overestimate the % of D's making up the electorate.
November 5, 201213 yr One of the polling companies I have found to be very accurate over the years is SurveyUSA. Here is their Ohio poll, just released: SurveyUSA » Blog Archive » Election Eve, Ohio: Obama in Strongest Position Yet To Capture Buckeye State’s 18 Critical Electoral Votes Obama is leading by 5 points with 49% of the vote, his highest number in 5 polls they have conducted. Obama gained a point and Romney lost a point over the past week.
November 5, 201213 yr Almost every poll is within the margin of error, plus if an incumbent is polling at less that 50% he cannot feel that comfortable.
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