ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, CNN, ESPN, 538, etc. all have a 110% chance of Obama winning. Democrats, there is no need for you to vote today.

FiveThirtyEight now says the President has a 91% chance of winning.

 

That makes sense as the odds should go up as the election nears as there is less time for a major event to have an effect.

Politico: 47%-47%

Rasmussen: 49%-48% in favor of Romney

IBD/TIPP: 50%-49% in favor of Obama

 

Crazy how close the polls have this race on a national level.

Isn't 538 a NY Times (read DNC) poll??

 

No. It's not a poll.

That makes sense as the odds should go up as the election nears as there is less time for a major event to have an effect.

 

Overall, I agree with your assessment.

That makes sense as the odds should go up as the election nears as there is less time for a major event to have an effect.

 

Actually, it makes sense because of the polling. In fact, 538 has two ratings: the election forecast and the now cast. The election forecast takes into account things like economic data while the now cast is a purer look at polling and previous state perfomance. The now cast is more volatile and responsive. The entire election, Obama has performed better in the now cast because his polling has been better than indicators suggest it should be. In my opinion this is due to Romney's weakness as a candidate. In any case, as we near the election, the two forecasts become closer and closer until, today, they are the same.

Dan Rather says he has a "gut feeling" that something good is going to happen for Gov Romney.

I am in Houston today and a colleague is flying in.

 

I hope she doesn't expect to "hang out" tonight. I'll be in my room zeroed in on election returns.

Dan Rather says he has a "gut feeling" that something good is going to happen for Gov Romney.

Dan Rather should use the restroom, see if that helps.

You're completely missing my point. Change the %s if you like my point still stands. 500 people were randomly called, now pick a % of each.

 

If you call 500 people randomly why would you need to choose a percentage? Just report the results of the 500 people and that's a random sample.

Dan Rather says he has a "gut feeling" that something good is going to happen for Gov Romney.

 

He gets to go back to work at Bain Capital?

If you call 500 people randomly why would you need to choose a percentage? Just report the results of the 500 people and that's a random sample.

Why are you making it this hard? Every poll you look at shows the make up. That wasn't even my point to start with.

Why are you making it this hard? Every poll you look at shows the make up. That wasn't even my point to start with.

 

Then what am I missing?

Then what am I missing?

 

My original point was if it's random it doesn't matter which way the one doing the poll leans.

Dan Rather says he has a "gut feeling" that something good is going to happen for Gov Romney.

 

Obama got up to as high as a -425 favorite to win the election in the betting market at 10:00 am meaning bet $425 to win $100. He is down to -320 right now. That's a pretty significant move, but Obama had a really significant move last night to get to -425.