April 8, 201016 yr Author If you really think the win was the bullpen's, yes I know they got credit for it, your knowledge of the baseball isn't what I thought it was.... Go back and read the thread. It was a playful jab at malachicrunch for his earlier post.
April 8, 201016 yr Werth and Larson were drafted the same year. Larson put up better minor league numbers, and made it to the majors before Werth did. My point is that it's way too early to know who will end up with a better major league career. To say you know which one will based on minor league numbers is mere speculation.It doesn't matter what year they were drafted ... what matters is what they're producing and at what minor league level at the same age. At age 23, Werth spent a full season in Triple-A and was promoted to the minors in September. At the same age, Larson spent much of the year in the low-A Midwest League and was moved up to Double-A late in the summer. Your comparison is invalid.
April 8, 201016 yr You may very well be right, but also don't look at the minor league numbers and base anything off of it.Why not? Minor league numbers do matter ... if you know how to interpret and use them.
April 8, 201016 yr Author Why not? Minor league numbers do matter ... if you know how to interpret and use them. I'm just too dumb then. Maybe you can interpret these minor league numbers for me. 22 year old Pitcher. AA stats. 16-5 1.72 ERA. That is after going 11-11 with a 3.55 ERA the year before in high A ball. Should his team be excited about his future?
April 8, 201016 yr Lincoln is terrible. Masset is average at best. Rhodes is good, but he's also like 45. Herrera is decent, not great. The Logan kid is unproven, and seems below-average. Cordero is one of the most overpaid, overrated closers in the game. What am I missing? If you're statisfied with Gomes/Nix in LF, then what the Reds produce this season, mediocrity, will be suffice for you. Cabrera is an improvement, but he's an average at best SS. Rolen may end up above-average, but I'm not conviced he'll a) hold up the entire year, and b) not be traded once they're out of contention by June 1. You listed how the Reds are basically just average at best at most positions, and these other teams have better talent. So I am interested to see where you rank these other teams at position by position? I don't think you can find to many guys on the other teams either, that you should say are better than just average? Most of the teams have guys who are just average. So that comes down to the managers, and how they use them, which is what started this whole discussion you all are having.
April 8, 201016 yr I'm just too dumb then. Maybe you can interpret these minor league numbers for me. 22 year old Pitcher. AA stats. 16-5 1.72 ERA. That is after going 11-11 with a 3.55 ERA the year before in high A ball. Should his team be excited about his future? Pitchers are much harder to predict than position players for various reasons, primarily the fact that young pitchers are much more susceptible to injuries. From a statistical point of view, there are many other factors in evaluating a young pitcher aside from record and ERA ... things like innings-to-hits ratio and strikeouts and walks per inning. Once a player gets to the majors, age is also less of a consideration in evaluating pitchers than for position players. Look at how many relief pitchers are productive and successful in their late 30s ... there are many more of those guys than there are position players.
April 8, 201016 yr Author Pitchers are much harder to predict than position players for various reasons, primarily the fact that young pitchers are much more susceptible to injuries. From a statistical point of view, there are many other factors in evaluating a young pitcher aside from record and ERA ... things like innings-to-hits ratio and strikeouts and walks per inning. Once a player gets to the majors, age is also less of a consideration in evaluating pitchers than for position players. Look at how many relief pitchers are productive and successful in their late 30s ... there are many more of those guys than there are position players. OK, then I'm sure this one will be much easier. 21 year old. AA- .211 8 HR 31 RBI Following year at AAA .291 26 HR 91 RBI Makes it to the Majors as a 23 year old, can't miss prospect.
April 8, 201016 yr I'm just too dumb then. Maybe you can interpret these minor league numbers for me. 22 year old Pitcher. AA stats. 16-5 1.72 ERA. That is after going 11-11 with a 3.55 ERA the year before in high A ball. Should his team be excited about his future? Who is this?
April 8, 201016 yr Every off season I forget how awesome it is to have Abner Doubleday gracing us with his presence in the Reds threads...
April 8, 201016 yr OK, then I'm sure this one will be much easier. 21 year old. AA- .211 8 HR 31 RBI Following year at AAA .291 26 HR 91 RBI Makes it to the Majors as a 23 year old, can't miss prospect. Again, there is much more to look at than just the basic numbers. The fact that the guy hit .211 in Double-A is an indicator that the guy might not be a can't-miss prospect. But there could have been other factors involved, like injuries and such.
April 8, 201016 yr Again, there is much more to look at than just the basic numbers. The fact that the guy hit .211 in Double-A is an indicator that the guy might not be a can't-miss prospect. But there could have been other factors involved, like injuries and such. So, please enlighten us. What should WE look for in a prospect? What makes Rasmus a much better prospect than Stubbs?
April 8, 201016 yr Author Again, there is much more to look at than just the basic numbers. The fact that the guy hit .211 in Double-A is an indicator that the guy might not be a can't-miss prospect. But there could have been other factors involved, like injuries and such. But look at his AAA numbers the next year, and the fact that he made it to the majors at age 23. Has to be a future star doesn't he?
April 8, 201016 yr Chris Hammond.Looking at Hammond's numbers ... wow, what a jump between Single-A and Double-A. Makes you wonder if he developed another pitch ... that might explain the big jump forward. That's another reason pitchers are harder to predict. Remember Doug Jones, a closer in the '80s and '90s? He didn't look like he had any kind of big future, until he developed a change-up. Then his career took off.
April 8, 201016 yr But look at his AAA numbers the next year, and the fact that he made it to the majors at age 23. Has to be a future star doesn't he?Not necessarily ... baseball guy is full of "can't-miss" prospects that never developed into stars. Most baseball players have some fluctuation in stats from year-to-year ... they're called good years and bad years. It explains how J.J. Hardy goes from looking like one of the best young shortstops in the game in 2008 to getting demoted to the minors the next year. If you want to try and play the "gotcha" game, go right ahead. Just throwing out numbers and not knowing other data (stuff like what position the guy plays and his defensive skills) makes it difficult to assess the guy's viability as a prospect.
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