It will be a team from the 6th, 7th or 11th region. I'd say the 11th has the edge.

Lex Cath

Scott Co.

Byran Station

Ballard

J-town

Eastern

UHA

Holmes

Mason Co.

Paintsville

 

Shelby Valley - Longshot but with earlier wins aganst Male and DeSales who knows.

 

The following have a chance to make the finals only because of their favorable draw, remember Apollo and Warren Central making it to the finals (WC in 05 - the year after they won it and Apollo in 06) with favorable draws. They are longshots to win in the finals but anything can happen in one game.

 

Hazard, Lincoln Co., Tilgman, Marshall Co., Corbin, Montgomery Co., Elliott Co (if Mason loses in region).

 

Note: I don't think Dunbar, Madison Central, Manual or Male will make it out of region even though they are good teams.

Lex Cath, Scott Co, Mason Co, and Bryan Station are the only teams that i think have really good odds to win it. Other teams wouuldnt be fav. they may have a shot but these 4 are head and shoulders above the rest of the state.

 

For Scott Co. to win for example they might have to win the following games:

District - Henry Clay

Region - Madison Central, Lex Cath, Bryan Station

Sweet 16 - UHA, PRP, J-town, Mason Co.

 

That is a lot to ask of an 11th region team. If I had to pick only a couple of teams I don't know if I could pick an 11th region one despite the fact that these teams are very good.

For Scott Co. to win for example they might have to win the following games:

District - Henry Clay

Region - Madison Central, Lex Cath, Bryan Station

Sweet 16 - UHA, PRP, J-town, Mason Co.

 

That is a lot to ask of an 11th region team. If I had to pick only a couple of teams I don't know if I could pick an 11th region one despite the fact that these teams are very good.

 

Interesting. No doubt that the 11th's representative at Rupp will be battle-tested before the Sweet 16 even starts. That should help against a loaded upper bracket. However, the possibility of stumbling in that upper bracket certainly is there.

 

The other side of the coin is that the other teams in the upper half have to go beat the 11th's team. I still say that the 11th's team - especially if it's LexCath, Scott County or Station - is the team to beat.

Covcath has already beaten the best team in the 5th region, Adair County. Even if Holmes or Highlands doesn't get out of the region, CCH would win atleast one game down there.

 

I think Highlands and Holmes would have the better shot at making it to the semi's, with Holmes having the best shot since they have the most depth.

 

Boone also beat Adair County handily this year. If the 9th is playing the 5th, I think several of the top teams in the 9th could match up well with Adair.

Lex Cath

Scott Co.

Byran Station

Ballard

J-town

Eastern

UHA

Holmes

Mason Co.

Paintsville

 

Shelby Valley - Longshot but with earlier wins aganst Male and DeSales who knows.

 

The following have a chance to make the finals only because of their favorable draw, remember Apollo and Warren Central making it to the finals (WC in 05 - the year after they won it and Apollo in 06) with favorable draws. They are longshots to win in the finals but anything can happen in one game.

 

Hazard, Lincoln Co., Tilgman, Marshall Co., Corbin, Montgomery Co., Elliott Co (if Mason loses in region).

 

Note: I don't think Dunbar, Madison Central, Manual or Male will make it out of region even though they are good teams.

 

Interesting. You have Eastern, Ballard, and JTown as legit chances then in your "Note" claim that Manual will not make it out of the 7th. Well, only one of the 7th region teams you have listed will make it out the same. Manual defeated both Eastern and JTown. Don't underestimate parity.

 

One more note, Manual just routed one of your longshot teams.

Interesting. You have Eastern, Ballard, and JTown as legit chances then in your "Note" claim that Manual will not make it out of the 7th. Well, only one of the 7th region teams you have listed will make it out the same. Manual defeated both Eastern and JTown. Don't underestimate parity.

 

One more note, Manual just routed one of your longshot teams.

 

If Manaul was in one of the bottom bracket regions (i.e. the 8th) I'd give them a very good chance to win it. But being in the 7th region and being in the top bracket I just don't see it happening. I think Eastern, Ballard, and J-town have the senior leadership and (in the case of Ballard and J-town, the past success and experience at Rupp to be able to win it.)

 

As far as Male they are too up and down (great win one day like Eastern or Manual or Ballard) terrible loss the next like Seneca or Christian Co or Central the next day. All three of these losses were suffered after Jan 1st.

 

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. I'm not picking the best teams I'm picking good teams with favorable draws or great teams regardless of their draw.

 

You don't have to be the best team to win it but you do have to be hot, healthy and lucky.

 

Speaking of Montgomery Co. they have region at home this year and lost to Mason earlier by only six. If they can get past Mason they can make the finals. I knew they wouldn't go into Louisville and beat Manual.

Interesting. No doubt that the 11th's representative at Rupp will be battle-tested before the Sweet 16 even starts. That should help against a loaded upper bracket. However, the possibility of stumbling in that upper bracket certainly is there.

 

The other side of the coin is that the other teams in the upper half have to go beat the 11th's team. I still say that the 11th's team - especially if it's LexCath, Scott County or Station - is the team to beat.

 

I completely agree with this statement. If I got to pick a team to win AFTER the sweet 16 was set I would pick the 11th region team probably. However, if I have to pick one team to win it BEFORE the region tournament I couldn't pick Station or Lex Cath or Scott Co. because they only have a 1/3 chance or worse.

I know I'm walking into a bee's nest here (with all the 9th fans on here), but I think some of you all are putting a little too much faith in Boone's win over Adair, and automatically assuming that the 9th will roll over the 5th. Sure they did kick their tail's up and down the court that day, but remember Boone Co. shot 60% and Adair shot 29% and Kimberland got "knocked out" (literally) in the second quarter. If I remeber correctly Boone had 8 three pointers in the first half of that game and it was still only a six point game at the half.

 

Even if Adair doesnt come out of the fifth, It is not as automatic as some think that the 9th is gonna roll onto Friday at Rupp.

I know I'm walking into a bee's nest here (with all the 9th fans on here), but I think some of you all are putting a little too much faith in Boone's win over Adair, and automatically assuming that the 9th will roll over the 5th. Sure they did kick their tail's up and down the court that day, but remember Boone Co. shot 60% and Adair shot 29% and Kimberland got "knocked out" (literally) in the second quarter. If I remeber correctly Boone had 8 three pointers in the first half of that game and it was still only a six point game at the half.

 

Even if Adair doesnt come out of the fifth, It is not as automatic as some think that the 9th is gonna roll onto Friday at Rupp.

 

Boone is the #4 team in the 9th. The 9th representative may not blow the 5th region opponent out, but if they meet up with Holmes or Highlands, I don't see them getting past the first round.

I know I'm walking into a bee's nest here (with all the 9th fans on here), but I think some of you all are putting a little too much faith in Boone's win over Adair, and automatically assuming that the 9th will roll over the 5th. Sure they did kick their tail's up and down the court that day, but remember Boone Co. shot 60% and Adair shot 29% and Kimberland got "knocked out" (literally) in the second quarter. If I remeber correctly Boone had 8 three pointers in the first half of that game and it was still only a six point game at the half.

 

Even if Adair doesnt come out of the fifth, It is not as automatic as some think that the 9th is gonna roll onto Friday at Rupp.

 

Kimberland was very quick. Of the 9th region teams, Holmes can match up the best with him and Ballou. Boone had problems defensively against Kimberland and could not press him. However, Kimberland got into foul trouble against Boone. If he can play defense without getting into foul trouble, that will definitely help Adair. I think Boone's Earls scored inside well against Adair too, and Ballou got some points but did not hurt them that game. Anything can happen, but I would still say Holmes, CovCath, and Highlands would be favorites. I think they have all also played tougher schedules.

UHA,PRP,Whoever comes out of the 7th and 11th,Holmes,Mason,Hazard,Paintsville, and Elliott all have the talent win it. Its basically whoever puts the best series of games together. I'm going to predict Bryan Station as state Champs this season if they can get out of the 11th which will be tougher than the actuall sweet 16. If they don't make it out I'll go with the Arrez Henderson led Holmes Bulldogs.

As far as Shelby Valley goes, a Month or so ago I would have had them as a favorite and possibly said that they would be you next state champion but they played their best basketball at the beginning of the season and I don't feel like they are playing the way they were when the beat Male, DeSales,...etc and I personally don't see them getting past Paintsville in the 15th.

UHA,PRP,Whoever comes out of the 7th and 11th,Holmes,Mason,Hazard,Paintsville, and Elliott all have the talent win it. Its basically whoever puts the best series of games together. I'm going to predict Bryan Station as state Champs this season if they can get out of the 11th which will be tougher than the actuall sweet 16. If they don't make it out I'll go with the Arrez Henderson led Holmes Bulldogs.

 

If those teams are on the list, then so is CovCath.

Why is there so much talk about Boone, Cov. Cath, Adair, etc? Check the title of the thread. If we arent talking about someone from the 11th, Mason Co., UHA, Holmes, or a couple of the Louisville teams then there is nothing to talk about.