September 9, 200719 yr Author Classic. Do you think I make this crap up? You speak in generalities. I provide actual results. There is no statistical difference between a K and an out in general AS IT IMPACTS RUNS SCORED. By the way, just to play your game, the catcher could drop the 3rd strike with a man on 3rd base, right? Happens about as much as the LFers dropping the fly ball with less than 2 and a man on 3rd. We can ASSUME all we want. Or we can actually go check to see what REALLY happens. Obviously, you and I have gone opposite directions. I understand the stats, .207 if K occurs right? .240 if a general out is recorded. The difference is .033 correct. Now this may be beyond me, ( I'm not real big on these obscure stats, I stick to W's and Ls as being the true barometer) multiply that .033 runs by every time there is a K in every inning in every game and I's imagine it does add up. Back to our game, explain to me how a catcher dropping a strike 3 with a man on 3rd impacts the scoring. He simply applies the tag on the batter and its an out. Now I have don't have stats in front of me but I'm going to guess more runs are scored by fielding errors than strike 3 errors by the catcher. If you still insist a K is the same as putting the bat on the ball then so be it. If I'm in the dugout and Mr. Dunn is at the plate I'd much rather see him hit the ball than K. It doesn't really matter if you do go back to the most obvious stat, 64 and 78 says it all. They're really not worth all this effort.
September 9, 200719 yr I understand the stats, .207 if K occurs right? .240 if a general out is recorded. The difference is .033 correct. Now this may be beyond me, ( I'm not real big on these obscure stats, I stick to W's and Ls as being the true barometer) multiply that .033 runs by every time there is a K in every inning in every game and I's imagine it does add up. Back to our game, explain to me how a catcher dropping a strike 3 with a man on 3rd impacts the scoring. He simply applies the tag on the batter and its an out. Now I have don't have stats in front of me but I'm going to guess more runs are scored by fielding errors than strike 3 errors by the catcher. If you still insist a K is the same as putting the bat on the ball then so be it. If I'm in the dugout and Mr. Dunn is at the plate I'd much rather see him hit the ball than K. It doesn't really matter if you do go back to the most obvious stat, 64 and 78 says it all. They're really not worth all this effort. We can all agree that we'd rather see Dunn put the ball in play simply because it has the chance of going out of the park. That's never been a debate. The point of the stat quoted is that if you're going to concede that Dunn is going to get out X % of the time, recent detailed history has shown that HOW he gets out is irrelevant to the # or runs scored. We fans are too hung up on style and ignore the true impact, as you say , on Ws and Ls.
September 9, 200719 yr Author We can all agree that we'd rather see Dunn put the ball in play simply because it has the chance of going out of the park. That's never been a debate. The point of the stat quoted is that if you're going to concede that Dunn is going to get out X % of the time, recent detailed history has shown that HOW he gets out is irrelevant to the # or runs scored. We fans are too hung up on style and ignore the true impact, as you say , on Ws and Ls. Okay. We wouldn't be having these discussions if the W-L record was reversed.
September 9, 200719 yr Okay. We wouldn't be having these discussions if the W-L record was reversed. We're having this discussion because you and others do not understand the overall value Dunn brings to the number of runs the Reds score . You and others think that his production is easy to replace. You and others get hung up on style instead of substance. Dunn is NOT the problem. Dunn can be the centerpiece of a good Reds team IF WK and Big Bob use their money wisely. Griffey has to go. He is NOT part of this team's future and his salary can be used to fill in the gaps. My fear is that he ends up with less than 600 and fans like many on here will say "keep him because we want to see him hit 600 as a Red." We'll then be in the same situation as we are this year.
September 9, 200719 yr Victor Santos is now an Oriole. Don't know if the Reds got anything back. Maybe a waiver claim.
September 9, 200719 yr Author We're having this discussion because you and others do not understand the overall value Dunn brings to the number of runs the Reds score . You and others think that his production is easy to replace. You and others get hung up on style instead of substance. Dunn is NOT the problem. Dunn can be the centerpiece of a good Reds team IF WK and Big Bob use their money wisely. Griffey has to go. He is NOT part of this team's future and his salary can be used to fill in the gaps. My fear is that he ends up with less than 600 and fans like many on here will say "keep him because we want to see him hit 600 as a Red." We'll then be in the same situation as we are this year. Lets compare; stats after Fri game Dunn;476 abs, 267 avg. 384 oba., R 91, Hr 36, RBI 95, BB 89, SO 152, Jr ;477 abs, 285 avg. 389 oba., R 75, Hr 28, RBI 88, BB 85, SO 85 Pretty comparable except SO. Age wins the debate for Dunn but thats the only reason. One misnomer about Dunn are those who point to his oba and his walks. Those #s are not staggeringly great. I think the Reds have much more to correct than a few gaps. Jrs salary doesnot cover the price to fix the Reds.
September 9, 200719 yr Lets compare; stats after Fri game Dunn;476 abs, 267 avg. 384 oba., R 91, Hr 36, RBI 95, BB 89, SO 152, Jr ;477 abs, 285 avg. 389 oba., R 75, Hr 28, RBI 88, BB 85, SO 85 Pretty comparable except SO. Age wins the debate for Dunn but thats the only reason. One misnomer about Dunn are those who point to his oba and his walks. Those #s are not staggeringly great. I think the Reds have much more to correct than a few gaps. Jrs salary doesnot cover the price to fix the Reds. Griffey has had a fine year. My argument has nothing to do with his abilities. It has everything to do with the fact that he's almost 40 and has a poor history of playing full seasons. If you're a team with a limited budget , why would you keep a guy who eats up $10M+ and is approaching 40 who has had ONE strong season in the last 4 or 5? Can't that $10M go towards some pitching upgrades? The Reds aren't that far off in this division. Its not like they're in with the RedSox, Angels, Yanks, or Mets. They're not far away. Keeping Jr tells us Big Bob is more interested in selling tickets than winning the division.
September 9, 200719 yr Author Griffey has had a fine year. My argument has nothing to do with his abilities. It has everything to do with the fact that he's almost 40 and has a poor history of playing full seasons. If you're a team with a limited budget , why would you keep a guy who eats up $10M+ and is approaching 40 who has had ONE strong season in the last 4 or 5? Can't that $10M go towards some pitching upgrades? The Reds aren't that far off in this division. Its not like they're in with the RedSox, Angels, Yanks, or Mets. They're not far away. Keeping Jr tells us Big Bob is more interested in selling tickets than winning the division. And there we have it. The truth, Bob is more interested in selling tickets than winning. The problem with Bobs plan is that in Cincinnati you can't sell tickets for a losing team. The problem starts at the top and it all rolls downhill from there. Bob goes out and gets Krivsky. Cheap hire. Not qualified. Extends Narron contract. Cheap hire. Not qualified. Fires Narron gets Mack. Cheap hire. Not qualified. As in not qualified I mean these are guys not capable of turning this org around within the constraints placed by the owner. Do we see a pattern here. Until Bob spends the bucks on GM, Mgr and payroll, it won't make a difference ifts Dunn or Jr. or whoever in the OF, they can't win. BTW someone brought up the turnaround in the minors. What were the records of the AAA and AA clubs? Just curious.
September 9, 200719 yr Baseball Prospectus “I love the guy, and I think everyone in clubhouse loves the guy,” Reds left fielder Adam Dunn said. “He just has a great way of making everyone relax. He’s a funny guy and he keeps things loose, but he’s not the type of guy you’re going to walk all over. We know he is in charge and we respect that. It’s not like we’re looking at him as the substitute teacher and we’re just having fun until the regular teacher comes back.” “I hate making excuses and I hate blaming the manager, but there was kind of a negative haze here,” Reds first baseman Scott Hatteberg said. “Pete is much more upbeat. He tries to be around and keep guys loose. He's preaching a fun, more optimistic atmosphere, and I think guys appreciate it.”
September 12, 200719 yr Dunn with two homers tonight, one of them being a BIG SLAM!!!!!! That's 38 homers and 101 RBI's for those of you keeping track at home. Trade the bum. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
September 12, 200719 yr Author Dunn with two homers tonight, one of them being a BIG SLAM!!!!!! That's 38 homers and 101 RBI's for those of you keeping track at home. Trade the bum. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: Dunn may have just saved this thread:dancingpa
September 12, 200719 yr Hopefully Mulder sticks one in his ribs this AB to Dunn so we can see a fight.
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