June 7, 200719 yr Any sabermetrics geeks out there? I found an interesting stat regarding the concept of runs produced. Dunn supporters (me included) say he's a big run producer (not only RBIs for the naysayers). I found a stat that falls under sabermetrics called "runs created." There are variations but this one I found is described as such: Runs Created. Invented by Bill James, RC is a very good measure of the number of runs a batter truly contributed to his team’s offense. The basic formula for RC is OBP*TB, but it has evolved into over fourteen different versions. We use the most complicated version, which includes the impact of hitting well with runners in scoring position, and is adjusted for ballpark impact. I ran the list for the NL and Dunn came in at 32nd. Top 100 in NL
June 7, 200719 yr Author The Twins success evolved over time. No question. I'm not convinced that Big Bob will give Jerry and/or WK years to see the fruit should any fruit be coming. He doesn't seem to be a patient guy and, like it or not, fan reaction may play into some of his decisions. Then we had all better strap in for a long run of even more seasons just like this one...
June 7, 200719 yr There is also a stat called "clutch" which is described as: "Clutch" is the name we've given to the portion of Bill James's Runs Created formula that includes the impact of a batter's batting average with runners in scoring position and the number of home runs with runners on. The specific formula is Hits with RISP minus overall BA times at bats with RISP, plus HR with runners on minus (all HR/AB) times at bats with runners on. This stat is not a definitive description of "clutch hitting," just one way of looking at it. Dunn is currently 41st. He's 4th on the Reds behind Freel, E5, and BP. Top 100 Clutch in NL
June 7, 200719 yr So in theory the inches shouldn't be hard to correct... I'm unclear. You seem to think it's an impressive accomplishment that the Reds lose a fair number of close games. And that this has essentially occured because they are victims of innumerable bad breaks ("everything than can go wrong does"). But you've been saying the same thing for weeks and weeks and weeks and NOTHING CHANGES. They are still the same bad team that they were when the season opened and, in fact, are getting worse. No team loses at this rate simply because they're unlucky. Are you suggesting that things will suddenly and magically right themselves by staying with the status quo? If so, that one is hard to follow. Or are you suggesting that no changes be made because the season is already a lost cause and any changes would be pointless? They are in the weakest division in baseball and it's only the first week of June. It ain't over just quite yet. Why not replace Narron? You said they are losing a lot of close ones, right? Managers have their MOST impact in close games. Not much a manager can do for a 10-0 blowout. Maybe - just maybe - a new manager is the change agent to start winning a few of these close games without having to make huge roster changes mid-season. And if dumping Narron changes nothing at all - who cares? Sticking with him seems defeatist. If no change anywhere, then don't expect a change in the outcome. I certainly hope Krivsky is not pointing to all these close losses as some meaningful measure of success or we are doomed to many more seasons of the same thing.
June 7, 200719 yr Author I don't like mid season managerial changes in any way shape or form. They almost always seem to end with the interim manager showing improvement and getting the job. Rinse and repeat. I also think you take the next 6 weeks and see where your trade value stands as the deadline approaches. If you do it now, you get little to nothing in return and you are making change for the sake of change. Clear...
June 7, 200719 yr I don't like mid season managerial changes in any way shape or form. They almost always seem to end with the interim manager showing improvement and getting the job. Rinse and repeat. I also think you take the next 6 weeks and see where your trade value stands as the deadline approaches. If you do it now, you get little to nothing in return and you are making change for the sake of change. Clear... I concur, however, the only thing that would perturb me if I were part of management is the lack of cahones by Narron. His "fierce defense" of his ace in the face of an attack by the horses rearend who manages the Cardinals would be enough for me to have cut bait with Narron. Don't name an interim, make Conine player/manager, I don't care. But this last little jellyfish rebuttal just torques me. Can you imagine if Pete were the manager and LaRussa said that? He'd have told him he'd meet him in the parking lot.
June 7, 200719 yr I concur, however, the only thing that would perturb me if I were part of management is the lack of cahones by Narron. His "fierce defense" of his ace in the face of an attack by the horses rearend who manages the Cardinals would be enough for me to have cut bait with Narron. Don't name an interim, make Conine player/manager, I don't care. But this last little jellyfish rebuttal just torques me. Can you imagine if Pete were the manager and LaRussa said that? He'd have told him he'd meet him in the parking lot. I certainly agree with the disgust of Narron over this. Absolute chicken crap :fight: .
June 7, 200719 yr Author LHP Brian Shackelford cleared waivers and has been outrighted off the 40-man roster to Louisville. Our 40-man roster is at 38.
June 7, 200719 yr LHP Brian Shackelford cleared waivers and has been outrighted off the 40-man roster to Louisville. Our 40-man roster is at 38. About 5 too many!
June 7, 200719 yr I don't like mid season managerial changes in any way shape or form. They almost always seem to end with the interim manager showing improvement and getting the job. Rinse and repeat. I also think you take the next 6 weeks and see where your trade value stands as the deadline approaches. If you do it now, you get little to nothing in return and you are making change for the sake of change. Clear... So - and I am asking this seriously - is the season over? If no changes for six weeks, then expect six more weeks of what we've had. Come mid/late July, yes the season is over. But first week of June? In the worst division in baseball? There are NO changes necessary to turn this around? Come on . . . no way you believe that.
June 7, 200719 yr Author So - and I am asking this seriously - is the season over? If no changes for six weeks, then expect six more weeks of what we've had. Come mid/late July, yes the season is over. But first week of June? In the worst division in baseball? There are NO changes necessary to turn this around? Come on . . . no way you believe that. You really believe they can jump 5 teams and get to the top of this division? No chance. It's over...
June 7, 200719 yr You really believe they can jump 5 teams and get to the top of this division? No chance. It's over... Perhaps if we were the Astros, but not the juggernaut we have.
June 7, 200719 yr LHP Brian Shackelford cleared waivers and has been outrighted off the 40-man roster to Louisville. Our 40-man roster is at 38. Freeing up space for a 1 for 2 or a 1 for 3 type of deal? :irked:
June 7, 200719 yr Author Freeing up space for a 1 for 2 or a 1 for 3 type of deal? :irked: Remember Homer gets one of those spots...
June 7, 200719 yr Remember Homer gets one of those spots... Okay, still frees up space for a deal that sends out 1 ML player and brings back 2 ML players....and hopefully some minor league young prospects.
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