My predictions for the third round:

#5 Logan County (District 1) at #4 Paducah Tilghman (District 1)
#3 Franklin County (District 4) at #13 North Oldham (District 3)

(I consider these locks - also, I don't know if Logan County would be able to get past Paducah Tilghman in the RPI, but if they did, this is a reminder that it would be a travesty that they'd be able to host that game despite losing the district to Paducah.)

The bottom of the bracket is harder, but these will be the teams (IMO)

#6 Highlands (District 5)
#2 Johnson Central (District 6) / #11 Covington Catholic (District 5)

#1 Boyle County (District 7)
#10 Corbin (District ?

If Johnson Central beats CovCath, that would make the matchups (at the moment):

#6 Highlands (District 5) at #2 Johnson Central (District 6)
#10 Corbin (District 8) at #1 Boyle County (District 7)

If CovCath beats Johnson Central, that would make the matchups:

#10 Corbin (District ? at #6 Highlands (District 5)
#11 Covington Catholic (District 5) at #1 Boyle County (District 7)

Ironically, I think Highlands will be pulling for Covington Catholic in Round 2.

 

Round 4, these teams are all so good on the bottom, I really don't know what to predict.  I do think Franklin County and Paducah Tilghman come from the top.  But it's not a guarantee either team will get to host a game in the state semis.

1 hour ago, DragonFire said:

My predictions for the third round:

#5 Logan County (District 1) at #4 Paducah Tilghman (District 1)
#3 Franklin County (District 4) at #13 North Oldham (District 3)

(I consider these locks - also, I don't know if Logan County would be able to get past Paducah Tilghman in the RPI, but if they did, this is a reminder that it would be a travesty that they'd be able to host that game despite losing the district to Paducah.)

 

Gonna be a team that was a notecard’s thickness away from beating Franklin County on the road going to Goshen in the 2nd round. Just putting that on people’s radar. 

Don't love the chances of lightning striking twice in the CovCath at Boyle match-up, if it comes to fruition.

I know it is a dead horse, but CovCath at #11 makes this entire seeding process a pile of warm junk.

12 hours ago, DragonFire said:

My predictions for the third round:

#5 Logan County (District 1) at #4 Paducah Tilghman (District 1)
#3 Franklin County (District 4) at #13 North Oldham (District 3)

(I consider these locks - also, I don't know if Logan County would be able to get past Paducah Tilghman in the RPI, but if they did, this is a reminder that it would be a travesty that they'd be able to host that game despite losing the district to Paducah.)

The bottom of the bracket is harder, but these will be the teams (IMO)

#6 Highlands (District 5)
#2 Johnson Central (District 6) / #11 Covington Catholic (District 5)

#1 Boyle County (District 7)
#10 Corbin (District ?

If Johnson Central beats CovCath, that would make the matchups (at the moment):

#6 Highlands (District 5) at #2 Johnson Central (District 6)
#10 Corbin (District 8) at #1 Boyle County (District 7)

If CovCath beats Johnson Central, that would make the matchups:

#10 Corbin (District ? at #6 Highlands (District 5)
#11 Covington Catholic (District 5) at #1 Boyle County (District 7)

Ironically, I think Highlands will be pulling for Covington Catholic in Round 2.

 

Round 4, these teams are all so good on the bottom, I really don't know what to predict.  I do think Franklin County and Paducah Tilghman come from the top.  But it's not a guarantee either team will get to host a game in the state semis.

This is good to see and very informative. I assume you just typed it wrong accidentally - Franklin Co would host the 3rd round game I believe (not Oldham)

5 hours ago, PTown Dad said:

This is good to see and very informative. I assume you just typed it wrong accidentally - Franklin Co would host the 3rd round game I believe (not Oldham)

Correct, yeah, got crossed up there!

1	Johnson Central	4A	6	10	-	0			10	1.01308	.70684	.58521	.77753
2	Boyle County	4A	7	8	-	1			9	.99646	.68238	.61716	.77274
3	Franklin County	4A	4	9	-	0			9	1.10758	.44816	.58320	.71947
4	Highlands	4A	5	8	-	2			10	.92685	.61173	.57665	.71150
5	Paducah Tilghman	4A	1	8	-	1			9	.94143	.60742	.54610	.70593
6	Logan County	4A	1	8	-	1			9	.94143	.55851	.53821	.68644
7	Lincoln County	4A	7	7	-	2			9	.82784	.65254	.51933	.67393
8	Corbin	4A	8	6	-	3			9	.71921	.59048	.60104	.63870
9	Ashland Blazer	4A	6	6	-	3			9	.70474	.63323	.54019	.63034
10	Covington Catholic	4A	5	7	-	3			10	.74729	.57982	.54509	.62802
11	Taylor County	4A	2	7	-	2			9	.77562	.52420	.57199	.62654
12	Elizabethtown	4A	2	7	-	2			9	.82242	.46018	.57382	.62106
13	North Oldham	4A	3	8	-	1			9	.97481	.39771	.40940	.60320
14	Boyd County	4A	6	6	-	3			9	.66667	.53225	.55358	.58570
15	Spencer County	4A	4	6	-	3			9	.70004	.55847	.48107	.58480
16	Franklin-Simpson	4A	1	6	-	3			9	.71921	.49533	.49996	.57508
17	John Hardin	4A	2	5	-	4			9	.55091	.62283	.53050	.56996
18	Marion County	4A	2	6	-	3			9	.56495	.57117	.53809	.55907
19	Harlan County	4A	8	6	-	3			9	.62512	.45214	.54080	.53928
20	Valley	4A	3	7	-	2			9	.86618	.28425	.45144	.53808
21	Nelson County	4A	2	5	-	4			9	.54108	.52102	.52597	.52953
22	Wayne County	4A	7	3	-	6			9	.38588	.55474	.53374	.48934
23	Russell County	4A	7	3	-	6			9	.31886	.60759	.54749	.48850
24	Calloway County	4A	1	5	-	4			9	.47953	.46646	.48709	.47723
25	Mason County	4A	5	3	-	6			9	.35002	.55815	.52354	.47492
26	Greenup County	4A	6	3	-	6			9	.31886	.59491	.50442	.47115
27	Perry County Central	4A	8	3	-	6			9	.29532	.58224	.53970	.46906
28	Whitley County	4A	8	1	-	8			9	.11111	.63163	.55494	.42644
29	Warren East	4A	1	2	-	7			9	.25808	.44441	.51938	.40169
30	Western Hills	4A	4	3	-	6			9	.29532	.44491	.46518	.39863
31	Breckinridge County	4A	3	4	-	5			9	.38240	.40425	.39207	.39295
32	Harrison County	4A	5	1	-	8			9	.08404	.61147	.48941	.39025
33	Grant County	4A	4	3	-	6			9	.31886	.38548	.46868	.38712
34	Allen County-Scottsville	4A	1	0	-	9			9	.00000	.60491	.49567	.36042
35	Shelby County	4A	4	1	-	8			9	.11111	.49849	.45660	.35034
36	Rowan County	4A	6	1	-	8			9	.09664	.46862	.50237	.34855
37	Waggener	4A	3	2	-	7			9	.22222	.37763	.41144	.33338
38	Doss	4A	3	0	-	9			9	.00000	.36990	.38812	.24590

When they finally get to the round to seed using RPI, do they use the end of regular season RPI or the end of 2nd Round playoff RPI??

3 minutes ago, FrankNicodemus said:

When they finally get to the round to seed using RPI, do they use the end of regular season RPI or the end of 2nd Round playoff RPI??

Regular season.

Bracket: https://khsaa.org/2025-football-bracket-builder/

Edited October 25, 2025Oct 25 by brooksville

On 10/5/2025 at 11:35 AM, JUGGSPORTS said:

Do you have any anticipated "what ifs" for after this week as a projection? 

 

Or better yet, If Boyle were to lose against FD, are you able to project what the RPI would look like? 

Any chance PT passes Franklin or Highlands ?

On 10/4/2025 at 2:39 PM, DearToday said:

Third round east likely scenarios:

 

JC beats Cov Cath: Corbin at JC, Highlands at Boyle

Cov Cath beats JC: Corbin at Boyle, CC at Highlands 

Gunning for a rematch of CCH at Highlands!

6 minutes ago, BlueBloodedColonel said:

Gunning for a rematch of CCH at Highlands!

Given the scenarios, I do agree if JC beats Cov Cath that will be the way it plays. If Cov Cath beats JC I have Corbin at HHS and Cov Cath at Boyle. Cov Cath will have to pass Corbin in the RPI to make the other scenario play out. Since Corbin plays Great Crossing this weekend and Cov Cath has the Bye, it will be tough to catch them, I would guess.  But with the RPI formula, anything is possible. 

Games to watch this week - Douglass vs. Boyle and Franklin Co. vs. Bowling Green. I don't think Paducah or Highlands can catch Johnson Central or Boyle. Boyle will likely take the #1 overall with a win and most likely stay at 2 with a loss. 

Highlands and maybe even Paducah would pass Franklin if they lose. I do not think Cov Cath can pass Corbin with CCH on Bye and Corbin in a should win game. Here are the likely scenarios (I think):

1) JC 2) Boyle 3) Franklin 4) HHS 5) Paducah then Corbin and Cov Cath or 1) Boyle 2) JC 3) Franklin 4) Highlands 5) Paducah then Corbin and Cov Cath. Scenario 1 would be Corbin at JC and HHS at Boyle or CCH at Boyle and Corbin at HHS in round 3 depending on the CCH at JC outcome. Scenario 2 would be Corbin at Boyle and HHS at JC or CCH at Boyle and Corbin at HHS in round 3 depending on the CCH at JC outcome. The 3rd round would not be impacted if HHS climbs to 3 in the RPI behind JC and/or Boyle. 

Looking forward to the final outcomes to look at all the scenarios!

27 minutes ago, BLUEHOUND said:

Given the scenarios, I do agree if JC beats Cov Cath that will be the way it plays. If Cov Cath beats JC I have Corbin at HHS and Cov Cath at Boyle. Cov Cath will have to pass Corbin in the RPI to make the other scenario play out. Since Corbin plays Great Crossing this weekend and Cov Cath has the Bye, it will be tough to catch them, I would guess.  But with the RPI formula, anything is possible. 

Hate the RPI. I believe Covington Catholic will go on a tear in the playoffs.