1	Boyle County	4A	7	9	-	1			10	1.02909	.68039	.63140	.78774
2	Johnson Central	4A	6	10	-	0			10	1.01308	.68727	.58282	.76997
3	Franklin County	4A	4	10	-	0			10	1.11183	.46325	.59373	.72940
4	Highlands	4A	5	8	-	2			10	.92685	.60559	.58251	.71111
5	Paducah Tilghman	4A	1	9	-	1			10	.97956	.53582	.54747	.69462
6	Lincoln County	4A	7	8	-	2			10	.83202	.65153	.52129	.67563
7	Logan County	4A	1	8	-	2			10	.84729	.59445	.52735	.66282
8	Corbin	4A	8	7	-	3			10	.77956	.54018	.60217	.64256
9	Covington Catholic	4A	5	7	-	3			10	.74729	.57292	.54731	.62627
10	Elizabethtown	4A	2	7	-	3			10	.74018	.55864	.55705	.62170
11	Ashland Blazer	4A	6	6	-	4			10	.63426	.64943	.53469	.60970
12	North Oldham	4A	3	8	-	1			9	.97481	.39749	.41036	.60341
13	Taylor County	4A	2	7	-	3			10	.69806	.52387	.56520	.59724
14	Spencer County	4A	4	6	-	3			9	.70004	.56234	.48872	.58845
15	Boyd County	4A	6	6	-	3			9	.66667	.51810	.55482	.58112
16	John Hardin	4A	2	5	-	4			9	.55091	.60509	.53431	.56490
17	Franklin-Simpson	4A	1	6	-	4			10	.64729	.54143	.49145	.56348
18	Marion County	4A	2	7	-	3			10	.62347	.52117	.53461	.56101
19	Valley	4A	3	8	-	2			10	.89458	.32635	.43791	.55870
20	Harlan County	4A	8	7	-	3			10	.63824	.47624	.53088	.54933
21	Nelson County	4A	2	5	-	4			9	.54108	.50466	.54014	.52805
22	Russell County	4A	7	3	-	7			10	.28697	.64502	.55767	.49350
23	Wayne County	4A	7	3	-	7			10	.34729	.58865	.53035	.48668
24	Calloway County	4A	1	5	-	4			9	.47953	.45911	.48535	.47413
25	Perry County Central	4A	8	3	-	6			9	.29532	.59269	.53835	.47231
26	Mason County	4A	5	3	-	7			10	.31502	.57583	.52705	.46991
27	Greenup County	4A	6	3	-	6			9	.31886	.57925	.50538	.46595
28	Breckinridge County	4A	3	5	-	5			10	.41979	.41038	.41099	.41386
29	Grant County	4A	4	4	-	6			10	.36261	.41434	.45677	.40896
30	Whitley County	4A	8	1	-	9			10	.10000	.60814	.53666	.40885
31	Western Hills	4A	4	4	-	6			10	.33158	.40007	.48343	.40111
32	Warren East	4A	1	2	-	7			9	.25808	.43949	.51639	.39906
33	Harrison County	4A	5	1	-	8			9	.08404	.60126	.49924	.38963
34	Allen County-Scottsville	4A	1	0	-	9			9	.00000	.59781	.50122	.35960
35	Waggener	4A	3	3	-	7			10	.27563	.39362	.41736	.35945
36	Shelby County	4A	4	1	-	8			9	.11111	.50723	.45292	.35229
37	Rowan County	4A	6	1	-	9			10	.08697	.44801	.50103	.33755
38	Doss	4A	3	0	-	10			10	.00000	.35232	.39820	.24277

The dream of a Highlands/Covington Catholic final lives.  They stay one spot below Corbin in RPI.  As such, there is no realistic scenario where the two teams would meet in round 3, and if we assume they actually made the state semifinals, since Franklin County is a virtual lock to make the semis as the #3 team, and it would be highly shocking for it to be another team besides Paducah Tilghman (#5) or Logan County (#7) to make the semis, Franklin County would play Covington Catholic as highest remaining RPI vs. lowest, leaving Highlands to host the Paducah Tilghman/Logan County survivor.  And even if some crazy upset happened where North Oldham (or Spencer County) knocked off Franklin County, Highlands would then be the highest RPI and either of those teams would be below Covington Catholic.  Will it happen? Highly likely it won't, as Covington Catholic's path remains Johnson Central, then Boyle County, then Franklin County, all on the road.  But it COULD.

1	Boyle County	4A	7	9	-	1			10	1.02909	.68539	.62346	.78711
2	Johnson Central	4A	6	10	-	0			10	1.01308	.68973	.58700	.77208
3	Franklin County	4A	4	10	-	0			10	1.11183	.47000	.58760	.72992
4	Highlands	4A	5	8	-	2			10	.92685	.60454	.58074	.71021
5	Paducah Tilghman	4A	1	9	-	1			10	.97956	.54090	.54021	.69423
6	Lincoln County	4A	7	8	-	2			10	.83202	.64814	.52350	.67511
7	Logan County	4A	1	8	-	2			10	.84729	.60772	.51860	.66483
8	Corbin	4A	8	7	-	3			10	.77956	.53611	.60068	.64069
9	Covington Catholic	4A	5	7	-	3			10	.74729	.56605	.55311	.62560
10	Elizabethtown	4A	2	7	-	3			10	.74018	.55423	.55492	.61952
11	Ashland Blazer	4A	6	6	-	4			10	.63426	.64865	.53858	.61059
12	Spencer County	4A	4	7	-	3			10	.73003	.55572	.49029	.59710
13	Taylor County	4A	2	7	-	3			10	.69806	.52901	.55620	.59633
14	North Oldham	4A	3	8	-	2			10	.87732	.45724	.39428	.58538
15	Boyd County	4A	6	6	-	4			10	.60000	.56619	.55321	.57413
16	Franklin-Simpson	4A	1	6	-	4			10	.64729	.54790	.49022	.56538
17	John Hardin	4A	2	6	-	4			10	.58279	.55667	.53770	.56012
18	Valley	4A	3	8	-	2			10	.89458	.31978	.44046	.55717
19	Marion County	4A	2	7	-	3			10	.62347	.50689	.52910	.55436
20	Harlan County	4A	8	7	-	3			10	.63824	.46994	.52614	.54571
21	Nelson County	4A	2	5	-	5			10	.48697	.53218	.53001	.51570
22	Calloway County	4A	1	6	-	4			10	.54659	.43570	.50104	.49411
23	Russell County	4A	7	3	-	7			10	.28697	.64502	.55558	.49287
24	Greenup County	4A	6	4	-	6			10	.40199	.54674	.51330	.48604
25	Wayne County	4A	7	3	-	7			10	.34729	.58267	.53166	.48498
26	Mason County	4A	5	3	-	7			10	.31502	.56179	.53332	.46688
27	Perry County Central	4A	8	3	-	7			10	.26579	.57309	.53336	.45361
28	Breckinridge County	4A	3	5	-	5			10	.41979	.39424	.41305	.40882
29	Grant County	4A	4	4	-	6			10	.36261	.41467	.45485	.40850
30	Whitley County	4A	8	1	-	9			10	.10000	.59219	.53712	.40340
31	Western Hills	4A	4	4	-	6			10	.33158	.39145	.49056	.40023
32	Warren East	4A	1	2	-	8			10	.23227	.44847	.51439	.39258
33	Harrison County	4A	5	1	-	9			10	.07563	.59591	.50009	.38507
34	Waggener	4A	3	3	-	7			10	.27563	.37845	.41813	.35437
35	Allen County-Scottsville	4A	1	0	-	10			10	.00000	.58519	.49526	.35339
36	Shelby County	4A	4	1	-	9			10	.10000	.51453	.45573	.35180
37	Rowan County	4A	6	1	-	9			10	.08697	.45206	.50182	.33921
38	Doss	4A	3	0	-	10			10	.00000	.34152	.40233	.24023

I just looked at the 4A bracket. CCH gets another crack at Highlands after the 2nd round. 

It's too bad Highlands, CCH, and Boyle are all in the same bottom bracket. One of these three schools will make the championship game. 

 

I see no one in the top bracket other than PT or Franklin County advancing all the way to the championship. I know, this is all how RPI works. 

JC beats Cov Cath:

Corbin at Boyle, Highlands at JC

Cov Cath beats JC:

CC at Boyle, Corbin at Highlands. 

1 hour ago, BlueBloodedColonel said:

I just looked at the 4A bracket. CCH gets another crack at Highlands after the 2nd round. 

It's too bad Highlands, CCH, and Boyle are all in the same bottom bracket. One of these three schools will make the championship game. 

 

I see no one in the top bracket other than PT or Franklin County advancing all the way to the championship. I know, this is all how RPI works. 

RPI will re-shuffle the bracket after the second round.  1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3.  

Before I get to excited about this potential, can someone smarter than me look at my work to see if this makes sense.  Trying to play out a likely scenario to cause NKY to go NUTS in Kroger Field having a State Championship game of Cov Cath vs Highlands.... 

Based on the RPI's here is how it would go down:

So this weekend, if all the games play out like the current polling is showing we have:

PADUCAH, LOGAN CO, SPENCER CO, FRANKLIN CO, HIGHLANDS, COV CATH, BOYLE, & CORBIN advancing... 

These will be the matchups for the Quarterfinals:

Spencer Co at Franklin Co (Franklin Co wins)

Logan Co at Paducah (Paducah wins)

Cov Cath at Boyle Co (Cov Cath wins)

Corbin at Highlands (Highlands wins)

These will be the matchups for the Semifinals:

Cov Cath at Franklin Co (Cov Cath wins)

Paducah at Highlands (Highlands wins)

Cov Cath then will need to win their 3rd consecutive playoff road game to advance to Kroger Field.  Highlands will need to beat Paducah.....

Then we have ourselves a NKY miracle in the making with Cov Cath vs Highlands in the State Championship game...

 

Smarter people, do I have everything correct in all these assumptions?

17 minutes ago, FrankNicodemus said:

Before I get to excited about this potential, can someone smarter than me look at my work to see if this makes sense.  Trying to play out a likely scenario to cause NKY to go NUTS in Kroger Field having a State Championship game of Cov Cath vs Highlands.... 

Based on the RPI's here is how it would go down:

So this weekend, if all the games play out like the current polling is showing we have:

PADUCAH, LOGAN CO, SPENCER CO, FRANKLIN CO, HIGHLANDS, COV CATH, BOYLE, & CORBIN advancing... 

These will be the matchups for the Quarterfinals:

Spencer Co at Franklin Co (Franklin Co wins)

Logan Co at Paducah (Paducah wins)

Cov Cath at Boyle Co (Cov Cath wins)

Corbin at Highlands (Highlands wins)

These will be the matchups for the Semifinals:

Cov Cath at Franklin Co (Cov Cath wins)

Paducah at Highlands (Highlands wins)

Cov Cath then will need to win their 3rd consecutive playoff road game to advance to Kroger Field.  Highlands will need to beat Paducah.....

Then we have ourselves a NKY miracle in the making with Cov Cath vs Highlands in the State Championship game...

 

Smarter people, do I have everything correct in all these assumptions?

 Believe what you have posted is accurate but many variables. My suggestion as a Highlands fan is to enjoy the ride and play the next opponent in front of you.

1 minute ago, Jack of all Trades said:

 Believe what you have posted is accurate but many variables. My suggestion as a Highlands fan is to enjoy the ride and play the next opponent in front of you.

Totally fair and understandable, but it’s Sunday and the Bengals aren’t on and I’m bored….

So I went down this rabbit hole to occupy my time….

GO BIRDS!!

6 hours ago, Jack of all Trades said:

 Believe what you have posted is accurate but many variables. My suggestion as a Highlands fan is to enjoy the ride and play the next opponent in front of you.

I believe the three best teams are H CC and Boyle followed by a gap. So this is extremely possible. 

So I was asked "Could Cov Cath vs Highlands happen prior to the State Championship scenario above?".

Just because I was asked I looked into a potential earlier game scenario and this is what I figured out:

Quarterfinal game chances:  0%, there isn't any scenario this Thu/Fri that an outcome could result in a Cov Cath vs Highlands game next week in the Quarterfinals

Semifinal game chances:  Slight chance, Elizabethtown would be the team to watch this Friday vs Logan Co.

Winners this week would need to be:  PADUCAH, ELIZABETHTOWN, SPENCER CO, FRANKLIN CO, HIGHLANDS, COV CATH, BOYLE, & CORBIN advancing... 

Then in the Quarterfinal games the outcomes need to be:

Spencer Co at Franklin Co (Franklin Co wins)

Elizabethtown at Paducah (Elizabethtown wins)

Cov Cath at Boyle Co (Cov Cath wins)

Corbin at Highlands (Highlands wins)

If those games play out this way then your Semifinal games would be:

Elizabethtown at Franklin Co

Cov Cath at Highlands

ps....there might be other scenarios "technically" but I didn't even look into if someone like Wayne Co, Valley, or Franklin Simpson advanced after this weekend since those outcomes are HIGHLY unlikely

I will say, other than the excitement of having a potential rematch against Cov Cath, these scenarios would also create in either case that Highlands would NOT play an away game during this run to Kroger Field.

Would a Highlands vs Cov Cath State Championship game break bluegrass preps? Might want to put a lighting bolt sticker on the server that week. 

On 11/10/2025 at 11:48 AM, FrankNicodemus said:

So I was asked "Could Cov Cath vs Highlands happen prior to the State Championship scenario above?".

Just because I was asked I looked into a potential earlier game scenario and this is what I figured out:

Quarterfinal game chances:  0%, there isn't any scenario this Thu/Fri that an outcome could result in a Cov Cath vs Highlands game next week in the Quarterfinals

Semifinal game chances:  Slight chance, Elizabethtown would be the team to watch this Friday vs Logan Co.

Winners this week would need to be:  PADUCAH, ELIZABETHTOWN, SPENCER CO, FRANKLIN CO, HIGHLANDS, COV CATH, BOYLE, & CORBIN advancing... 

Then in the Quarterfinal games the outcomes need to be:

Spencer Co at Franklin Co (Franklin Co wins)

Elizabethtown at Paducah (Elizabethtown wins)

Cov Cath at Boyle Co (Cov Cath wins)

Corbin at Highlands (Highlands wins)

If those games play out this way then your Semifinal games would be:

Elizabethtown at Franklin Co

Cov Cath at Highlands

ps....there might be other scenarios "technically" but I didn't even look into if someone like Wayne Co, Valley, or Franklin Simpson advanced after this weekend since those outcomes are HIGHLY unlikely

I will say, other than the excitement of having a potential rematch against Cov Cath, these scenarios would also create in either case that Highlands would NOT play an away game during this run to Kroger Field.

State final chances.. also 0% now.