Ravens 19 Bengals 17

[Voice of Reason]

2 hours ago, futurecoach said:

100% agree with Zac Taylor the head coaches decision to go for it on 4th and goal. 100% disagree with Zac Taylor the offensive coordinators play call decision for that 4th and goal. Taylor the HC is good and I agree with most of his decisions, Taylor the OC though is not so good. Both can be true!  #Bengals

As I have said before after watched Marvin Lewis for years ALWAYS play it safe and conservative. That I would always much rather my coach be aggressive. With them being on the road and a yard or two away from taking the lead at the end of the game, I am all for being aggressive there. Especially considering your defense was playing good, and that you would have the Ravens pinned inside their own one if they did miss. So I already see most people on here already think they should have kicked it, but I am fine with the decision. Now the play calls down there, I completely disagree with. 

I too like Zac Taylor's aggressive nature and willingness to go for it on 4th down. I agree always playing it safe like Marvin was bad. I also say always going for it is bad. You don't go for it on every short yardage 4th down once you cross the 50. That seems to be Taylor's mindset and that I disagree with. Going for it on 4th down is a very situational decision. Usually it is better to take the points. Especially on the road in a close game. It puts pressure on the opponent. It is a momentum builder. If your team does not make it on 4th down, you just handed your hard earned momentum over to the other team. I know analytics leans toward going for it but there are many factors and team information that make going for it on 4th more of an individual situational decision than a purely analytics decision. Bad decision in that game and situation last night and you can save typing a response to me. You cannot change my mind on this. 

[theguru]

Made me smile a little.

[AirYardGo]

3 hours ago, futurecoach said:

100% agree with Zac Taylor the head coaches decision to go for it on 4th and goal. 100% disagree with Zac Taylor the offensive coordinators play call decision for that 4th and goal. Taylor the HC is good and I agree with most of his decisions, Taylor the OC though is not so good. Both can be true!  #Bengals

As I have said before after watched Marvin Lewis for years ALWAYS play it safe and conservative. That I would always much rather my coach be aggressive. With them being on the road and a yard or two away from taking the lead at the end of the game, I am all for being aggressive there. Especially considering your defense was playing good, and that you would have the Ravens pinned inside their own one if they did miss. So I already see most people on here already think they should have kicked it, but I am fine with the decision. Now the play calls down there, I completely disagree with. 

This is exactly how I feel! Don’t mind the decision just bad play calls down there.

Edited October 10, 2022 by theguru

[futurecoach]

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

I too like Zac Taylor's aggressive nature and willingness to go for it on 4th down. I agree always playing it safe like Marvin was bad. I also say always going for it is bad. You don't go for it on every short yardage 4th down once you cross the 50. That seems to be Taylor's mindset and that I disagree with. Going for it on 4th down is a very situational decision. Usually it is better to take the points. Especially on the road in a close game. It puts pressure on the opponent. It is a momentum builder. If your team does not make it on 4th down, you just handed your hard earned momentum over to the other team. I know analytics leans toward going for it but there are many factors and team information that make going for it on 4th more of an individual situational decision than a purely analytics decision. Bad decision in that game and situation last night and you can save typing a response to me. You cannot change my mind on this. 

No worries, as I acknowledged I know most people think he should have kicked it. So I definitely know I’m in the minority on this one and wouldn’t change someone’s opinion. Which your reasoning is very sound.

For me, I liked the decision to go for it at the time. Which I guarantee not many people if any would have gone out and said he was wrong to go for it if they had scored, and would have instead said they loved his aggressiveness. If he had kicked it and they still lost. Many of the same people complaining about not kicking, would complain about him not going for it. The fact is if the end result is a loss, many of the same people will complain. For me I don’t let the result of the play impact my opinion on the actual decision itself. Now the play call itself is a whole other thing. If I knew his play call would be a dang shovel pass. Then yes I would say kick it, because the shovel pass rarely if ever seems to work for us lol.  Which dates all the way back to the Bob Bratkowski OC days lol.

[16thBBall Fan]

51 minutes ago, AirYardGo said:

This is exactly how I feel! Don’t mind the decision just bad play calls down there.

Pretty much how I feel, Zac’s play calling has for the most part been horrible.  He doesn’t run it any from the TWO but we can run it in on TWO plays from the FOUR!!!???  I think he’s a great builder, evaluates talent pretty well for the most part, really great culture going but he is JUST NOT A GOOD PLAY CALLER AND THAT’S KILLING THIS TEAM!!  In all reality, this team should be 5-0!!

[Voice of Reason]

1 hour ago, futurecoach said:

No worries, as I acknowledged I know most people think he should have kicked it. So I definitely know I’m in the minority on this one and wouldn’t change someone’s opinion. Which your reasoning is very sound.

For me, I liked the decision to go for it at the time. Which I guarantee not many people if any would have gone out and said he was wrong to go for it if they had scored, and would have instead said they loved his aggressiveness. If he had kicked it and they still lost. Many of the same people complaining about not kicking, would complain about him not going for it. The fact is if the end result is a loss, many of the same people will complain. For me I don’t let the result of the play impact my opinion on the actual decision itself. Now the play call itself is a whole other thing. If I knew his play call would be a dang shovel pass. Then yes I would say kick it, because the shovel pass rarely if ever seems to work for us lol.  Which dates all the way back to the Bob Bratkowski OC days lol.

Actually, I think you might be in the majority. Most fans want to go for it all the time.

Here are some stats to consider:

Last year the Bengals were one of the best in the NFL on 4th down and they made it 65% of the time. Hearing that stat at 65%, in that game in that situation I am now even more convinced they should have kicked the field goal.

But the decision to kick the field goal is even more clear when you hear this stat. This year the Bengals have converted on 4th down 28% of the time. 

[theguru]

8 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Actually, I think you might be in the majority. Most fans want to go for it all the time.

Here are some stats to consider:

Last year the Bengals were one of the best in the NFL on 4th down and they made it 65% of the time. Hearing that stat at 65%, in that game in that situation I am now even more convinced they should have kicked the field goal.

But the decision to kick the field goal is even more clear when you hear this stat. This year the Bengals have converted on 4th down 28% of the time. 

I hope the analytics are updated in ways where we see them evolve.  In other words, the analytics say xx% and then more coaches "go for it" and then the analytics from 2022 are what compared to what they were?I hope that makes sense.  My guess is some of those analytics are going to go "down" as coaches get more aggressive, or at least that is my gut feeling.  Your 28% in anecdotal (or only one example) but it reinforces my gut feeling on aggressive playing calling because of the analytics. 

[Voice of Reason]

3 minutes ago, theguru said:

I hope the analytics are updated in ways where we see them evolve.  In other words, the analytics say xx% and then more coaches "go for it" and then the analytics from 2022 are what compared to what they were?I hope that makes sense.  My guess is some of those analytics are going to go "down" as coaches get more aggressive, or at least that is my gut feeling.  Your 28% in anecdotal (or only one example) but it reinforces my gut feeling on aggressive playing calling because of the analytics. 

There are years of tracking NFL 4th down conversion rate available. In last night's game in that situation - late in the game, a field goal ties it, key rival, at the goal line where it is more difficult to convert on 4th down - what conversion % would cause you (or anyone else) to say it is worth the risk to go for it?

For me in that particular game situation, I need a 75% or better rate to even consider it and I think it is very rare that any team in history has had a 75% conversion rate on 4th down at the goal line. 

Researching this I came across this calculator. I have no idea how accurate it is but it let's you put in the entire specific game situation and teams. Go to the bottom and it tells you the chances of winning or losing the game based on all the outcomes. For last night's game, the success rate on scoring the TD was 46%. If the Bengals make the field goal their chances of winning the game are 41%. If they make the TD, their chances of winning are 59%. If they don't make it, chances of winning drop to 31%. So it is a bit of a do or die decision. Why make a do or die decision late in the 3rd quarter? Why not take the sure thing and increase your chances of winning to 41%? 

https://rbsdm.com/stats/fourth_calculator/

[theguru]

1 minute ago, Voice of Reason said:

There are years of tracking NFL 4th down conversion rate available. In last night's game in that situation - late in the game, a field goal ties it, key rival, at the goal line where it is more difficult to convert on 4th down - what conversion % would cause you (or anyone else) to say it is worth the risk to go for it?

For me in that particular game situation, I need a 75% or better rate to even consider it and I think it is very rare that any team in history has had a 75% conversion rate on 4th down at the goal line. 

Researching this I came across this calculator. I have no idea how accurate it is but it let's you put in the entire specific game situation and teams. Go to the bottom and it tells you the chances of winning or losing the game based on all the outcomes. For last night's game, the success rate on scoring the TD was 46%. If the Bengals make the field goal their chances of winning the game are 41%. If they make the TD, their chances of winning are 59%. If they don't make it, chances of winning drop to 31%. So it is a bit of a do or die decision. Why make a do or die decision late in the 3rd quarter? Why not take the sure thing and increase your chances of winning to 41%? 

https://rbsdm.com/stats/fourth_calculator/

It all makes my brain hurt a little bit.  For example, teams going for two late in the game after being down 14 because the analytics say blah blah blah.  I have yet to see analytics line up and play a down of football.

[futurecoach]

4 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Actually, I think you might be in the majority. Most fans want to go for it all the time.

Here are some stats to consider:

Last year the Bengals were one of the best in the NFL on 4th down and they made it 65% of the time. Hearing that stat at 65%, in that game in that situation I am now even more convinced they should have kicked the field goal.

But the decision to kick the field goal is even more clear when you hear this stat. This year the Bengals have converted on 4th down 28% of the time. 

Most people I have seen said they wish he kicked it. I’m still fine with the decision, just not fine with the play call itself. The play calls leading up to it were bad, then calling a shovel pass gave you literally only one option on that play, and that one option they tried to go to was a guy that’s only on the team because of special teams play. 
 

As you pointed out the chances of winning was even greater if they score there. Then obviously less if they get stopped. I like taking my chances in that situation with this offense. Then I also like how well the defense has played this year, and thinking if you do get stopped you have them pinned inside the one. 
 

Which ultimately gets back to us agreeing to disagreeing on the his decision to go for it. I will say there were a few other 4th down calls he went for this year that I didn’t agree with. This one I did agree with though. 

[spindoc]

21 hours ago, TheDeuce said:

W.

 

MVP

[bugatti]

13 hours ago, futurecoach said:

Most people I have seen said they wish he kicked it. I’m still fine with the decision, just not fine with the play call itself. The play calls leading up to it were bad, then calling a shovel pass gave you literally only one option on that play, and that one option they tried to go to was a guy that’s only on the team because of special teams play. 
 

As you pointed out the chances of winning was even greater if they score there. Then obviously less if they get stopped. I like taking my chances in that situation with this offense. Then I also like how well the defense has played this year, and thinking if you do get stopped you have them pinned inside the one. 
 

Which ultimately gets back to us agreeing to disagreeing on the his decision to go for it. I will say there were a few other 4th down calls he went for this year that I didn’t agree with. This one I did agree with though. 

I get what you are saying here - and don't fully disagree - but you can't separate the two, unfortunately, unless you have a different coaching staff. You can't say "Team A is bad at this, but the analytics say to do this" when the two don't compute. It doesn't account for game flow. In this scenario, it doesn't account for a horrible redzone play caller.

The problem with "analytics" is that it looks at a scenario in a vacuum. The numbers might say when you are on the 42 with 30 seconds left, down by 2 points, 4th and 2, you should go for it because kickers are head cases and the chances of booting a 59 yarder are slim. But if I have Justin Tucker, I'm trotting him out there. But there are many coaches that wouldn't because the numbers say otherwise.

[MJAlltheWay24]

Higgins being on the field makes such a big difference.

[theguru]

48 minutes ago, MJAlltheWay24 said:

Higgins being on the field makes such a big difference.

I agree, any update on his status?

[MJAlltheWay24]

18 hours ago, theguru said:

I agree, any update on his status?

Last I saw on Monday was Taylor saying he was day to day.  Sounds like he maybe could have played through it on Sunday but they decided to not force it and hopefully not create a season long lingering issue.  But who knows.