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Covington Catholic at Cooper Predictions/Updates


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  • Poll closed on 09/23/2022 at 11:30 PM

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Looking at the series record between Cooper and Covington Catholic, first glance says "all Colonels, all day." Cov Cath has an undefeated 7-0 record against Cooper, and has outscored the Jags 291-24. With a second, closer look though, the difference all comes if you look back at the game last year. In the longest game in program history, the Colonels only barely slipped by the Jaguars with a quadruple-overtime win. Cooper's offense outgained Cov Cath in the game. Then after the Jags had a go-ahead, game-winning field goal blocked in 2OT, the teams matched field goals in 3OT and then in 4OT, the Colonels scored and then won by intercepting Cooper and ending their possession and the game.

This year's game will see a 2-2 Cooper team hosting a 4-1 Cov Cath team.

Cooper has had the week off to prepare, following a 28-26 win over 6A Campbell County. Cov Cath will be coming in on a 4-game win streak and fresh off a commanding win over rival 2A Beechwood. The Jag's losses came in Week 1 against 6A George Rogers Clark and in Week 3 against Ryle; the Cardinals shut out the Jags 28-0 and the Raiders beat them 13-10. Cov Cath's only loss came in Week 1 to Elder (OH). The Panthers, currently ranked #3 in Ohio, beat the Colonels 42-21.

Eli White is the senior workhorse for Cooper's offense, with 430 total yards rushing in 4 games. Freshman QB Cam O'Hara has been raising eyebrows in NKY with his 749 yards passing thus far in the season with sophomore WR Isaiah Johnson and sophomore TE Austin Alexander rising as his favorite receivers, combining for almost 500 yards through the air. On defense, the Jags are led in tackles by junior LB Jack Lonaker (68), sophomore DE Austin Alexander (43), and sophomore DB Mason Stanton (32). Alexander has also tallied 3 sacks.

For Cov Cath, the offense has seen both junior Evan Pitzer and senior Zaccary Roberts in at QB. Pitzer has thrown 70 times for 613 yards and 6 TDs, and has rushed for another 200 yards and 2 TDs, while Roberts has thrown 22 times for 174 yards and 4 TDs and has rushed for another 41 yards. Junior Owen Leen leads the Colonels' run game with 396 yards and 5 TDs on 85 carries, and has another 103 yards on receptions. Junior TE Willie Rodriguez leads the team in receiving with 295 yards and 5 TDs, junior Braylon Miller has 121 yards and 2 TDs receiving. The Colonel defense is led in tackles by senior LB Aiden Jones (33), Tate Kruer (31), and Josh Flood (21). Cov Cath's defense has tallied 23 tackles for loss, including 10 sacks, and has forced 9 turnovers in 5 games.

So what are folks expecting to see at Cooper on Friday? Do the Jaguars have a shot?


Cov Cath vs Cooper.jpg

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Cooper is a young team with a lot of young talent. Frosh QB Cam O'Hara definitely appears to be finding his stride:

Week 1 vs. George Rogers Clark: 13-26 passing for 77yds and 1 INT.
Week 2 vs. Dixie Heights: 13-26 passing for 194yds, 3 TDs, and 1 INT.
Week 3 vs. Ryle: 7-12 passing for 110 yds.
Week 4 vs. Campbell County: 18-26 passing for 368yds, 3 TDs and 1 INT.

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I think the most telling prediction metric is the two teams' performances against Dixie.

Cooper beat Dixie 41-36 in Week 2. Their defense allowed 427 yards (281 rushing/146 passing) and 5 touchdowns to the Red Colonels.

Cov Cath beat Dixie 47-14 in Week 4. Their defense allowed 174 yards (100 rushing/74 passing) and 0 touchdowns to the Red Colonels. Both of Dixie's touchdowns were scored by their defense on fumble scoop-and-scores, and the second touchdown came late in the game once Cov Cath was playing their subs.

Offensively, both teams fared pretty similarly against Dixie, but Cov Cath's defense definitely performed better against Dixie, and I think that's where we'll see the most notable when Cov Cath and Cooper play on Friday.

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4 hours ago, StraightShooter said:

Closer than expected with 2 weeks to prepare and CovCath coming off a big win in a rivalry game. I still think the Blue Colonels prevail but not in blowout fashion.

 

3 hours ago, The Double Deuce said:

Co-Sign.

Forget the two weeks to prepare, I think that means very little in this game.  If CovCath comes out and plays close to the level they played against Beechwood this is running clock territory. 

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2 hours ago, KYFootballFanz said:

Cooper was all hype this year. I really expected them to win the district but after 4 games I now see them finishing 3rd in district. Cov 35 Cooper 14

1. Highlands 

2. Cov

3. Cooper 

4. Boone 

5. Conner

There is no way Highlands should be "ranked" ahead of Covington Catholic right now.

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8 hours ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

I think the most telling prediction metric is the two teams' performances against Dixie.

Cooper beat Dixie 41-36 in Week 2. Their defense allowed 427 yards (281 rushing/146 passing) and 5 touchdowns to the Red Colonels.

Cov Cath beat Dixie 47-14 in Week 4. Their defense allowed 174 yards (100 rushing/74 passing) and 0 touchdowns to the Red Colonels. Both of Dixie's touchdowns were scored by their defense on fumble scoop-and-scores, and the second touchdown came late in the game once Cov Cath was playing their subs.

Offensively, both teams fared pretty similarly against Dixie, but Cov Cath's defense definitely performed better against Dixie, and I think that's where we'll see the most notable when Cov Cath and Cooper play on Friday.

Or in other words CovCath figures to score a lot and Cooper not so much. 

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