Bengals Off Season

[nkypete]

If we add Golladay, I'd go for Pitts.

[futurecoach]

3 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

 If they add Golladay, I think that is even more reason to stay put at number 5. Why move back when you need studs more than bodies? I want a multi time all pro stud on this roster and you need to be high in the draft to improve the odds you get that.  It would take a big package including for me to even consider moving back in the draft.

If they landed Galloday, which stud would you want at 5 then? Do you go WR then? Go ahead and take Pitts? I’m not talking about trying to trade far back, but if they can pick up a extra second round pick. And then still get a Slater, Pitts, Waddle, or Smith. Then why not do that?

[futurecoach]

4 hours ago, theguru said:

If an All Pro Caliber tackle is available when the Bengals pick I take him period.  

If Sewell is there, then I definitely want him still. However, if the plan was to use a top 5 pick and make Sewell play guard. Then, no I rather them try to trade back and get an extra second round pick. They could still get Slater then, who is even projected to possibly be better suited at guard. So if they are going to draft a lineman to be a guard. Then might as well get an extra pick if you can, and then take Slater. 

[theguru]

1 hour ago, futurecoach said:

If Sewell is there, then I definitely want him still. However, if the plan was to use a top 5 pick and make Sewell play guard. Then, no I rather them try to trade back and get an extra second round pick. They could still get Slater then, who is even projected to possibly be better suited at guard. So if they are going to draft a lineman to be a guard. Then might as well get an extra pick if you can, and then take Slater. 

I hear you fc but I don't want to build our future around 30 something year old FA signings.  

[16thBBall Fan]

7 hours ago, CincySportsFan said:

Bobby Hart now gone. Again, as expected. 

Again, thank goodness!!!

[Voice of Reason]

6 hours ago, futurecoach said:

If they landed Galloday, which stud would you want at 5 then? Do you go WR then? Go ahead and take Pitts? I’m not talking about trying to trade far back, but if they can pick up a extra second round pick. And then still get a Slater, Pitts, Waddle, or Smith. Then why not do that?

 Every single pick they drop lower than number 5 the odds decrease of getting that multi year all pro player.  I want a multi year all pro player. You need 3 to 5 players like that to be a playoff caliber team. A multi year all pro player is worth 4 regular starters.  Use free agency to fill holes of starting players. Use this number 5 pick to find your stud that can win playoff games for you.

[futurecoach]

8 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

 Every single pick they drop lower than number 5 the odds decrease of getting that multi year all pro player.  I want a multi year all pro player. You need 3 to 5 players like that to be a playoff caliber team. A multi year all pro player is worth 4 regular starters.  Use free agency to fill holes of starting players. Use this number 5 pick to find your stud that can win playoff games for you.

I’m not in disagreement with that all. I am completely all for that. If Sewell is there, that is who I would want, and would play him at tackle. However, going by what bengals coaches have said. It sounds like whoever they would pick, if it is a lineman that they would play that guy at guard. Which if that is the thinking, then trading back say to 9, is still probably going to get them either Sewell or at worst Slater who some even rank higher than Sewell, if the plan is to play them at guard. 
 

Right now there doesn’t seem to even be a consensus at who even the best player is to take at 5. There are some people as I stated who have Slater ranked ahead of Sewell. At receiver there are some people who have Waddle above Chase. Now Pitts obviously is the number one ranked TE. However positional value of a TE, and history of TEs drafted in the top 10 is not on the side of ever drafting a TE top 10, much less top 5. 

I guess it would matter if the Bengals truly have one guy ranked much higher than everyone else, if that player is there at 5. If the Bengals also like some of these experts have a lot of guys basically all closely together rated the same. Then with  at least 4 QBs projected to go in the top 10.  Then say trading back to 9, is still going to get you a top 5 position player that you basically have ranked the same between Sewell, Slater, Pitts, Chase, Waddle, and Smith. Those are the names most people seem to have ranked the highest, but not clear consensus on the order. Which is why as long as the trade back is out of the top 10. I would be good with it.

It most likely will be a day of situation, when the Bengals are on the clock. If a guy they love is there, then that is who it will be and I’m all for it. However, if a guy they love isn’t there and they have the rest basically rated the same. Then trading back, as long as it doesn’t take them out of the top 10 isn’t a bad thing.

 

[futurecoach]

10 hours ago, theguru said:

I hear you fc but I don't want to build our future around 30 something year old FA signings.  

I agree, I just don’t like it if the plan is to use a top 5 pick on say Sewell, but then make him have to play guard. If the plan is to make the lineman they draft play guard. Then they probably can trade back, as long as they are still in the top 10 and still get either Sewell or Slater who some even rank higher than Sewell.

 

Me personally if Sewell is there, I would race the card up there. I would play him at LT, move Williams to RT, and Reiff to guard. 

[theguru]

55 minutes ago, futurecoach said:

I agree, I just don’t like it if the plan is to use a top 5 pick on say Sewell, but then make him have to play guard. If the plan is to make the lineman they draft play guard. Then they probably can trade back, as long as they are still in the top 10 and still get either Sewell or Slater who some even rank higher than Sewell.

 

Me personally if Sewell is there, I would race the card up there. I would play him at LT, move Williams to RT, and Reiff to guard. 

I agree I would race up there, take Sewell, and figure the rest out. 

[Voice of Reason]

On trading down or keeping the #5 pick, here are my thoughts and why.

First and foremost, a team must have all pro players to win playoff games. That drives my whole argument. I want to see the Bengals winning playoff games. Look at the good Bengals teams. When they had their playoff run from 2011-15 they had those 3 or more all pro players - Geno, A.J., Whitworth, Dalton, Burfict. Go back to 2005 - Chad, Willie Anderson, Palmer. And those teams didn't even win a playoff game. In the lost decade from 1991-2001, the Bengals had 2 players that were all pro level players - Corey Dillon and Carl Pickens - an entire decade with 2 legit all pros. that is why it was the lost decade.

Where are the all pro players on the Bengals roster? I could see Burrow getting there. I could see Tee Higgins getting there. Boyd, maybe. The Bengals need more all pro players to build around. They need that a lot more than they need  3 or 4 more solid starters.

I am not totally opposed to trading down but under no circumstances would I drop out of the top 10. Historically if you look at all pro players by draft position, the top 10 draft positions get you a 40%+ chance of drafting an all pro player. Odds of getting an all pro player drop by draft position from there. Outside the top 10, there isn't a single draft position that has produced 40% of the picks becoming all pro. Even the #12 pick has only produced an all pro less than 30% of the time. That is a big drop off. By the time you get to pick 15 or lower, your chances of getting an all pro are between 20-30% versus 40% for a top 10 pick. Here is a link to a chart on this:  https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/68plno/oc_allpros_by_draft_position/

If you look deeper you will see that your chances of getting an all pro in the top 10 picks are two times greater than finding one with the top pick in round 2. All those numbers are why I would never consider dropping out of the top 10. I could tolerate trading down from 5 to pick 6-10 if it gets me additional picks in round 1 or in the top 10 of round 2, but I would not trade out of the top 10.

 

 

[futurecoach]

2 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

On trading down or keeping the #5 pick, here are my thoughts and why.

First and foremost, a team must have all pro players to win playoff games. That drives my whole argument. I want to see the Bengals winning playoff games. Look at the good Bengals teams. When they had their playoff run from 2011-15 they had those 3 or more all pro players - Geno, A.J., Whitworth, Dalton, Burfict. Go back to 2005 - Chad, Willie Anderson, Palmer. And those teams didn't even win a playoff game. In the lost decade from 1991-2001, the Bengals had 2 players that were all pro level players - Corey Dillon and Carl Pickens - an entire decade with 2 legit all pros. that is why it was the lost decade.

Where are the all pro players on the Bengals roster? I could see Burrow getting there. I could see Tee Higgins getting there. Boyd, maybe. The Bengals need more all pro players to build around. They need that a lot more than they need  3 or 4 more solid starters.

I am not totally opposed to trading down but under no circumstances would I drop out of the top 10. Historically if you look at all pro players by draft position, the top 10 draft positions get you a 40%+ chance of drafting an all pro player. Odds of getting an all pro player drop by draft position from there. Outside the top 10, there isn't a single draft position that has produced 40% of the picks becoming all pro. Even the #12 pick has only produced an all pro less than 30% of the time. That is a big drop off. By the time you get to pick 15 or lower, your chances of getting an all pro are between 20-30% versus 40% for a top 10 pick. Here is a link to a chart on this:  https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/68plno/oc_allpros_by_draft_position/

If you look deeper you will see that your chances of getting an all pro in the top 10 picks are two times greater than finding one with the top pick in round 2. All those numbers are why I would never consider dropping out of the top 10. I could tolerate trading down from 5 to pick 6-10 if it gets me additional picks in round 1 or in the top 10 of round 2, but I would not trade out of the top 10.

 

 

Completely agree there. I’m only for trading back, as long as they stay in the top 10. With so many QBs projected to go in the top 10. As long as they are still picking in the top 10, they should be able to still get a top 5 position player. 
 

With that said, I am still 100% on taking Sewell if he is there at 5. 

[Voice of Reason]

Ryan Finley traded to the Texans. Bengals were going to release him then Texans stepped in with a trade offer. Compensation unknown.  

[nkypete]

29 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Ryan Finley traded to the Texans. Bengals were going to release him then Texans stepped in with a trade offer. Compensation unknown.  

The Bengals will send Finley and their 2021 seventh-round pick (231st overall) in exchange for the Texans' 2021 sixth-round pick (200th overall).

[nkypete]

I was watching some Trey Hendrickson video highlights online and I was pretty impressed.  He has quite a motor on him.  

[Voice of Reason]

57 minutes ago, nkypete said:

The Bengals will send Finley and their 2021 seventh-round pick (231st overall) in exchange for the Texans' 2021 sixth-round pick (200th overall).

Good for the Bengals.