Chinese venture capitalist Kai-Fu Lee thinks so and he is a guy that should know. Lee has funded 140 Artificial Intelligence (AI) start-ups and ten of them are billion-dollar-companies now including a few $10 billion-dollar-companies.

 

Lee attended high school in Oak Ridge, Tennessee and in the interview he said his high school principal took every lunch to teach him English.

 

Scott Pelley from 60 Minutes recently interviewed Lee and in short Lee said the following, "I think most people have no idea (about AI), and many people have the wrong idea."

 

From the interview:

 

Scott Pelley: What sort of jobs would be lost to AI?

 

Kai-Fu Lee: Basically chauffeurs, truck drivers anyone who does driving for a living their jobs will be disrupted more in the 15 to 20 year time frame and many jobs that seem a little bit complex, chef, waiter, a lot of things will become automated we'll have automated stores, automated restaurants, and all together in 15 years, that's going to displace about 40 percent of the jobs in the world.

 

6 Minutes: Facial and emotional recognition; how one man is advancing artificial intelligence - CBS News

 

Another interesting part about the article is how China is set to take over as the World's Leader when it comes to AI. This is two-fold, first, the Chinese are not too concerned with their privacy and second, China has four times more people than the United States and they are doing everything online. In other words, because there is no real privacy and four times the people, China probably has somewhere between 5 and 10 times the data to develop AI Infrastructure. And like the article/interview said, the more data, the better the AI. Just like the more you know, the smarter you are.

 

Also from the Guardian on this topic:

 

Today’s technological revolution is an entirely different beast from the industrial revolution. The pace of change is exponentially faster and far wider in scope. As Stanford University academic Jerry Kaplan writes in Humans Need Not Apply: today, automation is “blind to the color of your collar.” It doesn’t matter whether you’re a factory worker, a financial advisor or a professional flute-player: automation is coming for you.

 

And

 

In other words, the jobs themselves won’t entirely vanish; rather, they will be redefined. Of course, as Frey concedes, “from the perspective of the worker there is not much of a difference” between work disappearing and being radically redefined. It’s likely they’ll lack the new skillsets required for the role and be out of a job anyway.

 

What jobs will still be around in 2 years? Read this to prepare your future | US news | The Guardian

 

Some other random information from the article:

 

Machines already compose original music.

 

The speculation is we will all have 7 or 8 jobs in the future working for a number of corporations simultaneously.

 

No one can do any long-term career planning with any confidence.

 

Machines already wipe us humans out in complex board games like Chess and Go.

 

One report concluded 30% of tasks and 60% of occupations can be computerized.

 

Finally, the experts are thinking with their "2019 Brains" and making predictions. In other words, it could happen faster than we all think.

 

Any way you look at Artificial Intelligence a bunch of jobs are going away in the blink of an eye and we are not prepared for it.

 

Anyone?

I am not trying to turn this political, but my initial thought on this is it pushes us to socialism. If there aren't jobs for people to earn an income and the income becomes centralized in the people/corporations and their machines, then there will be massive numbers of people with no opportunity or hope of working and providing for themselves. What happens to them? If they have no opportunity and no hope, there will be revolution/riots. The solution is for the minority in control of the wealth to share it through socialist programs to pacify the masses.

The Great Plague caused the last great purge of the human race. Technology will cause the next.

Michu Koku postulates that there will be time in the foreseeable future where the definition of what is human will change.

Michu Koku postulates that there will be time in the foreseeable future where the definition of what is human will change.

 

I agree with this. As Bio Tech evolves deeper into human DNA/genetics, there will be more and more philosophical controversies. It will become possible for people to genetically alter who they are, what they want their children to be, what traits physically they have. Technology will be there to invade humans. How much of it will humans allow?

Michu Koku postulates that there will be time in the foreseeable future where the definition of what is human will change.

 

With the events that have occurred with new and proposed laws in New York and Virigina, that definition has already changed.

Birth rates are already slowing world wide. In something like 50 years it is projected that the birth rate will be surpassed by the death rate...meaning by the end of this century the population will be in a yearly decline. So we'll need someone to take up the slack, might as well be R2D2 and C3P0. :lol2:

Edited February 19, 20197 yr by Jumper_Dad
duh...I'm stupid

I agree with this. As Bio Tech evolves deeper into human DNA/genetics, there will be more and more philosophical controversies. It will become possible for people to genetically alter who they are, what they want their children to be, what traits physically they have. Technology will be there to invade humans. How much of it will humans allow?

 

It will become an "arms race" and the humans that don't allow it will be the ones that fall behind and eventually disappear from Earth.

I am not trying to turn this political, but my initial thought on this is it pushes us to socialism. If there aren't jobs for people to earn an income and the income becomes centralized in the people/corporations and their machines, then there will be massive numbers of people with no opportunity or hope of working and providing for themselves. What happens to them? If they have no opportunity and no hope, there will be revolution/riots. The solution is for the minority in control of the wealth to share it through socialist programs to pacify the masses.

 

Obviously everyone Politics is something we may NOT discuss on BGP.

 

==========

 

Moving ahead, VoR, I agree the coming Technological Revolution will make many of us much more dependent on Government for basic needs.

 

Additionally, this is coming at a time where things like Bitcoin, no matter what you think of it, will allow everyone to move money around without being taxed by Governments.

 

In other words, in the very near future there will be many more demands on Government than ever before and the Government will have less money than ever before.

 

It is all right around the corner and like Kai-Fu Lee says, "I think most people have no idea, and many people have the wrong idea."

Fulfillment centers for Amazon, Walmart, and the like are prime candidates for robots/automation.

Fulfillment centers for Amazon, Walmart, and the like are prime candidates for robots/automation.

 

Walmart's DC's are highly automated now and will continue to more and more automated. There are still a few labor intensive jobs that it will take some big leaps in technology to eliminate however.

I would think that some of the jobs that are "safe" (or at least...safer) are going to be the trades. It's going to be hard to develop something that can come and do a plumber's job, given all the various scenarios that that job could entail. Same way with an electrician, or HVAC. Now, that's not to say that can't have assistance from AI in troubleshooting the potential problems/tasks...but performing them? Sort of the same way it already is with auto repair...a computer can diagnose the problem, but it still usually takes hands-on to actually do the job.

I would think that some of the jobs that are "safe" (or at least...safer) are going to be the trades. It's going to be hard to develop something that can come and do a plumber's job, given all the various scenarios that that job could entail. Same way with an electrician, or HVAC. Now, that's not to say that can't have assistance from AI in troubleshooting the potential problems/tasks...but performing them? Sort of the same way it already is with auto repair...a computer can diagnose the problem, but it still usually takes hands-on to actually do the job.

 

I agree..........plus in many instances if you need a plumber or an HVAC guy, you need him right now.

40% in 15 years seems like too high of a number too fast, but yes, we are definitely headed towards more automation. I'm not sure it's a terrible thing in every circumstance.

I believe it is just a version of what has been predicted for years, and at least for employment, it will be a service economy. As @Voice of Reason stated, if people support it, many people will require support because they will not be incented nor possibly have the tools to do what will be required...which is to become entrepreneurial and service-oriented. So, we can prepare now and target educational opportunities to allow people to succeed in the future or sit back and prepare for massive changes in our economic structure.