November 15, 20169 yr I can see Louisville finishing in the AP Top 4 and getting left out. Can easily see that happening. If I were a betting man, I'd be putting money down on the AP#3 Louisville Cardinals playing in the Orange Bowl against a Big Ten team.
November 15, 20169 yr If I were a betting man, I'd be putting money down on the AP#3 Louisville Cardinals playing in the Orange Bowl against a Big Ten team. Yep. And I'm perfectly fine with that, tbh.
November 15, 20169 yr A pretty simplistic, not that far-fetched scenario that gets Penn State in.... Penn State will be #8 in the rankings tonight. They win out, beating Wisconsin in the B1G Title game. Now only 6 teams ahead of them. Ohio State beats Michigan. Now only 5 teams ahead of them. Houston beats Louisville. Now only 4 teams ahead of them. Washington either loses to Washington State, or to Colorado in the Pac 12 Title Game. They're now in the top 4.
November 15, 20169 yr A pretty simplistic, not that far-fetched scenario that gets Penn State in.... Penn State will be #8 in the rankings tonight. They win out, beating Wisconsin in the B1G Title game. Now only 6 teams ahead of them. Ohio State beats Michigan. Now only 5 teams ahead of them. Houston beats Louisville. Now only 4 teams ahead of them. Washington either loses to Washington State, or to Colorado in the Pac 12 Title Game. They're now in the top 4. And your scenario is exactly why I don't get too wrapped up in these rankings even this late in the season. There is still a lot of football and key games to be played As we saw this last weekend, all the scenarios speculated about in this entire thread can change dramatically on Saturday.
November 15, 20169 yr Penn State is in a 3 way toe with OSU and Michigan. With MI loss to IA, this is no longer possible (unless they all tie with 2 conference losses after some craziness the next 2 weeks). Before, there was a possibility of a 3-way tie among MI, tOSU and PSU with 1 loss. Now, either MI or tOSU has to have 2 losses. MI has head to head tiebreaker over PSU but PSU has same tiebreaker over tOSU.
November 15, 20169 yr This is why it is nuts to have a 4 team playoff with 5 major conferences. We need an 8 team playoff so all the conference champs get in and then the top 3 at large teams. Trying to figure out whether a conference champion should get in over a non conference champ is very difficult to do fairly and without bias. Winning a major conference should mean something and right now, you can win your conference and still be left out...
November 16, 20169 yr Committee would have a very hard time justifying putting Ohio State in over Penn State in that scenario. They've shown that winning the conference title carries a lot of weight. I think either get in over OSU due to that. What's the point of a dramatic 6 week is it ranking system then?
November 16, 20169 yr Author This is why it is nuts to have a 4 team playoff with 5 major conferences. We need an 8 team playoff so all the conference champs get in and then the top 3 at large teams. Trying to figure out whether a conference champion should get in over a non conference champ is very difficult to do fairly and without bias. Winning a major conference should mean something and right now, you can win your conference and still be left out... I'll never like the idea of Conf Champ Automatically qualifying, I don't want an 9-4 or 10-3 "Conf Champ" getting in over a 1 loss team like Louisville or Ohio St this season. Even at 8 teams, it needs to be the best 8 on the field not just because someone got a trophy. Far fetched, but UK until last week had a chance to go to SEC Title game, if by some miracle they won with 4 or 5 loses...it still doesn't mean there aren't 20+ teams out there that would have been more deserving.
November 16, 20169 yr I'll never like the idea of Conf Champ Automatically qualifying, I don't want an 9-4 or 10-3 "Conf Champ" getting in over a 1 loss team like Louisville or Ohio St this season. Even at 8 teams, it needs to be the best 8 on the field not just because someone got a trophy. Far fetched, but UK until last week had a chance to go to SEC Title game, if by some miracle they won with 4 or 5 loses...it still doesn't mean there aren't 20+ teams out there that would have been more deserving. I see your point JD but I like the idea that every big 5 conference team goes into the season knowing that they can win the national championship without needing help from a committee. Very simple...win your conference and you can win the NC. 3 more spots are there for the teams that had great seasons but did not win their conference. I would still rather have 8 teams even if under your rules though. I would reward the top 4 teams with a home game in the first round too.
November 16, 20169 yr All conferences are not created equal and I hope the committee respects this. You have the SEC and Big 10 up here. The ACC The PAC 12 The Big XII is all the way down here.
November 16, 20169 yr I see your point JD but I like the idea that every big 5 conference team goes into the season knowing that they can win the national championship without needing help from a committee. Very simple...win your conference and you can win the NC. 3 more spots are there for the teams that had great seasons but did not win their conference. I would still rather have 8 teams even if under your rules though. I would reward the top 4 teams with a home game in the first round too. This. Imagine an SEC or PAC 12 school up in Madison, Ann Arbor, or Columbus on a cold December night.
November 19, 20169 yr If I were a betting man, I'd be putting money down on the AP#3 Louisville Cardinals playing in the Orange Bowl against a Big Ten team. You may be right about the Cardinals playing a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl and the way OSU is playing right now it may be OSU. Louisville will obviously not be #3 now though.
November 19, 20169 yr With the way OSU is struggling against Mich St and after the loss to Penn State I don't know if the Buckeyes deserve to be in the top 4 over Penn St right now.
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