March 7, 201412 yr Author I'm of the belief that using past performances in sports to predict future results (especially in wagering, as an example) is a dicey proposition. Just because a Reds team 44 years ago fell off the map, that has zero bearing on the 2014's team ability to win 90 games. Mentch may be a student of history, and he may know baseball at a level that would make Theo Epstein blush, but I think in this case he is crazy and just looking to be outrageous. Barring a series of extreme and unforeseen circumstances, I don't see any way this team wins less than 85 games in this division. The Cardinals are good, but the Pirates are likely to slide back and the Brewers and Cubs are still a long way from competing. By default, the Reds will be the 2nd best team in the division. If this web site had been around in 1971 ( or if you were in a bar) and someone said the 1971 Reds would win only 79 games they would have been laughed out of the bar and 99% of the people would been willing to bet huge stacks of money that the Reds would win more than 79 games. Same thing after 1990.
March 7, 201412 yr Author In case you were wondering how a team could go from winning 102 games to winning 79? 1970 Nolan 18-7, Nolan 1971 12-15 1970 Merritt 20-12, Merritt 1971 1-11 1970 McGlothlin 14-10, McGlothlin 1971 8-12 1970 Simpson 14-3, Simpson 1971 4-7 1970 Cloninger 9-7, Cloninger 1971 3-6 Oh and Don Gullett became a starter in 1971 and went 16-6 to get them to 79 wins -
March 7, 201412 yr For the record, Choo from a statistical point of view was the worst, not one of but the worst, defensive centerfielder in baseball last season.
April 9, 201412 yr ...... I've read through this thread so many times that I nearly have every post memorized. Going to be an interesting one to keep an eye on this year. I surely hope the clouds part soon and I end up being completely off-base.
April 13, 201412 yr I understand some of your concerns with the team but I don't see how losing Choo makes them THAT much worse. Hell they won 97 games with Drew Stubbs hitting lead off. They are that bad. I agree with the finishing order Mentach has but would give brewers and pirates more wins. Anyone who has Elreds winning 90+ wins is looking at them through red colored glasses.
May 5, 201412 yr 2014 Central Div. total wins 1) Cardinals- 92-70 2) Brewers- 89-73 ( Wildcard team ) 3) Reds- 83-79 4) Pirates- 79-83 5) Cubs- 71-91
May 5, 201412 yr Author So far Central not looking like we thought Maybe not but I think the Brewers fall with a thud especially when Mr Ryan Juicer ends up on the DL off and on all year. I will say the Cards and Pirates do not look as dominant as what most people thought so far. But if the Brewers come back to the pack and finish around .500 then someone will be picking up some wins. Here is a side question.......how many wins will be necessary to win the Central? 85? 88? 90? Right now 81-81 would do it.
May 6, 201412 yr Author Agree. At least 90 That would mean another team in the division besides the winner is going to win at least 89 games. Maybe that will happen. Maybe not.
May 7, 201412 yr So far Central not looking like we thought Last 10 games, the whole division 4-6. Wonder how often that happens?
May 7, 201412 yr STL 92 CIN 92 PITT 90 MIL 80 CHI 70 You do realize from this point forward the Reds have to go 77-53 :isurrender:
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.