March 5, 201412 yr MentschTrachtGottLacht, while I find your posts to be funny and well written, I think you're crazy when it comes to your NL Central predictions. 75 wins? That is nuts. My prediction: St. Louis 95-67 Cincinnati 90-72 Pittsburgh 87-75 Milwaukee 75-87 Chicago 70-92
March 5, 201412 yr MentschTrachtGottLacht, while I find your posts to be funny and well written, I think you're crazy when it comes to your NL Central predictions. 75 wins? That is nuts. Hope that post didn't bruise the back of your hand. :walk:
March 5, 201412 yr ........ They have a leadoff hitter who is likely to be among the worst everyday players in the Majors. What is this based off of? His average? If he gets on base he puts pressure on the defense and is always a threat to get to second or third. He is a plus defender. No way he is worse than Drew Stubbs in 2012. Lets let him play a month or two before we proclaim him among the worst in the MLB. They have a disgruntled 2B who is either going to play like a house-a-fire or pout and be miserable. Track record shows Brandon loves playing with a chip on his shoulder. Votto and Bruce are known entities. They have 5-8 in their lineup that are somewhere in the neighborhood of average to bad. Anything Ludwick contributes is a plus to last year. Lets see what Frazier does, but I think he hit a sophomore slump last year. Likely somewhere in between. They have a starter who has lat issues and can't stay healthy. True. Disappointed that his delivery is the same but we know what he can do. They have a starter with a knee injury. They have a .500 pitcher (I know records don't tell any of the story, just let me rant) who just got PAID. My argument is the same PRO-Bailey people make but if you watch Homer pitch and then look at the sabes and think he is a .500 quality pitcher then I'm not sure what else I can say. They have a soft-tossing kleptomaniac who I think is WAY over-rated. He's a 4-5 pitcher, whose overrating him? Carried the Reds for awhile last year, and again he's not expected to be the Opening Day starter or start Game 1 of the playoffs. They have a hard-throwing lefty still with a lot to figure out. What young pitcher doesn't have a lot to figure out? Again he is their 4-5 pitcher with the potential to be top of the rotation guy, what more do you want? They have a 1st time manager. Mike Matheny and John Farrell They have a terrible bench and a farm system lacking any offensive talent whatsoever. Bench is better than last year but agree minor league power is lacking. Lastly....again...I HOPE I'm wrong. That being said I think: Cards - 97 Reds - 93 Pirates - 88 Brewers - 76 Cubs - 70
March 5, 201412 yr Author MentschTrachtGottLacht, while I find your posts to be funny and well written, I think you're crazy when it comes to your NL Central predictions. 75 wins? That is nuts. My prediction: St. Louis 95-67 Cincinnati 90-72 Pittsburgh 87-75 Milwaukee 75-87 Chicago 70-92 He could be nuts.................or he could be a student of history. Reds 1970 won 102 games, 1971 won 79 games 1988 won 87 games, 1989 won 75 games 1990 won 91 games, 1991 won 74 games 2000 won 85 games, 2001 won 66 games 2010 won 91 games, 2011 won 79 games
March 6, 201412 yr What Bovado - Las Vegas has to say on the topic: Over/Under Wins Total: Los Angeles Dodgers 92.5 St. Louis Cardinals 90.5 Detroit Tigers 89.5 Oakland Athletics 88.5 Tampa Bay Rays 88.5 Washington Nationals 88.5 Atlanta Braves 87.5 Boston Red Sox 87.5 Los Angeles Angels 86.5 New York Yankees 86.5 San Francisco Giants 86.5 Texas Rangers 86.5 Cincinnati Reds 84.5 Pittsburgh Pirates 83.5 Kansas City Royals 81.5 Seattle Mariners 81.5 Arizona Diamondbacks 80.5 Baltimore Orioles 80.5 Cleveland Indians 80.5 Milwaukee Brewers 79.5 Toronto Blue Jays 79.5 San Diego Padres 78.5 Colorado Rockies 76.5 Philadelphia Phillies 76.5 Chicago White Sox 75.5 New York Mets 73.5 Minnesota Twins 70.5 Chicago Cubs 69.5 Miami Marlins 69.5 Houston Astros 62.5
March 6, 201412 yr ........ They have a leadoff hitter who is likely to be among the worst everyday players in the Majors. They have a disgruntled 2B who is either going to play like a house-a-fire or pout and be miserable. Votto and Bruce are known entities. They have 5-8 in their lineup that are somewhere in the neighborhood of average to bad. They have a starter who has lat issues and can't stay healthy. They have a starter with a knee injury. They have a .500 pitcher (I know records don't tell any of the story, just let me rant) who just got PAID. They have a soft-tossing kleptomaniac who I think is WAY over-rated. They have a hard-throwing lefty still with a lot to figure out. They have a 1st time manager. They have a terrible bench and a farm system lacking any offensive talent whatsoever. Lastly....again...I HOPE I'm wrong. Bob C would like to add MTGL to those he blames for low season ticket sales.
March 6, 201412 yr He could be nuts.................or he could be a student of history. Reds 1970 won 102 games, 1971 won 79 games 1988 won 87 games, 1989 won 75 games 1990 won 91 games, 1991 won 74 games 2000 won 85 games, 2001 won 66 games 2010 won 91 games, 2011 won 79 games I'm of the belief that using past performances in sports to predict future results (especially in wagering, as an example) is a dicey proposition. Just because a Reds team 44 years ago fell off the map, that has zero bearing on the 2014's team ability to win 90 games. Mentch may be a student of history, and he may know baseball at a level that would make Theo Epstein blush, but I think in this case he is crazy and just looking to be outrageous. Barring a series of extreme and unforeseen circumstances, I don't see any way this team wins less than 85 games in this division. The Cardinals are good, but the Pirates are likely to slide back and the Brewers and Cubs are still a long way from competing. By default, the Reds will be the 2nd best team in the division.
March 6, 201412 yr I'm of the belief that using past performances in sports to predict future results (especially in wagering, as an example) is a dicey proposition. Just because a Reds team 44 years ago fell off the map, that has zero bearing on the 2014's team ability to win 90 games. Mentch may be a student of history, and he may know baseball at a level that would make Theo Epstein blush, but I think in this case he is crazy and just looking to be outrageous. Barring a series of extreme and unforeseen circumstances, I don't see any way this team wins less than 85 games in this division. The Cardinals are good, but the Pirates are likely to slide back and the Brewers and Cubs are still a long way from competing. By default, the Reds will be the 2nd best team in the division. Why are the Pirates likely to slide back? Did they lose some players?
March 6, 201412 yr If the Reds do take a step back it probably would be in the 85 win range IMO. The pitching staff and team in general is too good for 75 wins
March 6, 201412 yr Why are the Pirates likely to slide back? Did they lose some players? They lost 3 of their every day position players, and their best starter...How does a team that did that and added only Volquez not fall back???
March 6, 201412 yr They lost 3 of their every day position players, and their best starter...How does a team that did that and added only Volquez not fall back??? They added Bryd and Mornaeu late so I don't know if I would call that losing everyday players. I do agree they will slip some.
March 6, 201412 yr They added Bryd and Mornaeu late so I don't know if I would call that losing everyday players. I do agree they will slip some. They were just about 2-3 games over .500 with those two. I think Morneau played in 32 games and Byrd in 30.
March 6, 201412 yr They lost 3 of their every day position players' date=' and their best starter...How does a team that did that and added only Volquez not fall back???[/quote'] Gotcha.
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.