Based on their strength this year (and this year only).

 

I usually put this one out on the day the draw is released so we can look back and see who did and didn't have a valid argument about getting a bad draw.

Tier 1:

 

1. 7th

2. 11th

3. 6th

4. 9th

5. 2nd

 

 

Tier 2:

 

6. 4th

7. 10th

8. 14th

9. 12th

10. 5th

11. 8th

12. 3rd

 

 

Tier 3:

 

13. 15th

14. 1st

15. 13th

16. 16th

 

That's off the top of my head.

7

11

9

2

6

14

12

10

5

1

4

8

15

16

3

13

 

Based on which region I wouldn't want to draw. I don't think the second is better than the sixth, but Hoptown is scary.

Tier 1:

 

1. 7th

2. 11th

3. 6th

4. 9th

5. 2nd

 

 

Tier 2:

 

6. 4th

7. 10th

8. 14th

9. 12th

10. 5th

11. 8th

12. 3rd

 

 

Tier 3:

 

13. 15th

14. 1st

15. 13th

16. 16th

 

That's off the top of my head.

 

I don't know what you see out of the 4th region. Warren Central has some talent, but I don't see them putting the region ahead of the 14th, 12th and probably the 10th and 5th. Everything else looks reasonable though.

7

11

9

2

6

14

12

10

5

1

4

8

15

16

3

13

 

Based on which region I wouldn't want to draw. I don't think the second is better than the sixth, but Hoptown is scary.

 

Agreed.

 

Looking back over the past decade or so, when there's been a clear cut favorite in the 2nd, that team has usually made it out. If we're going on the assumption that the favorite is more likely than not to win out, then I'd give the nod to the 2nd (or should I say Hop-town).

 

Saw PRP look lackluster against Bryan Station earlier in the year, but still think that with them and Doss, plus some marginal teams like Bullitt East, Iroquois, etc., you know someone strong is going to end up coming out even if the best team is upset.

 

At the same time, some schools might look at that as an advantage, because you know whoever you get from there, especially if it's early Wednesday, runs the chance of being exhausted just from getting to that point.

I don't know what you see out of the 4th region. Warren Central has some talent, but I don't see them putting the region ahead of the 14th, 12th and probably the 10th and 5th. Everything else looks reasonable though.

 

Good point. I would probably drop them below the 10th, and the depth of the 10th was initially the reason I didn't (although Bishop Brossart is good too). Same goes for dropping the 4th below the 14th. At the end of the day, the 4th, 10th, 12th, and 14th are all there together at the top of that 2nd tier for me regardless.

 

Warren Central has been somewhat disappointing this year for sure, but they've dealt with some injuries as well IIRC. I wouldn't really want to play them in Rupp if they are at full strength, and think that the 4th/14th is probably going to be the best first round matchup.

Purely based on region strength, and not on who has the "best top team," the (power) rankings should be:

 

If looking at the strength of the top 5 teams: 7th, 9th, 11th, 6th, 12th. If looking at the strength of the top 10 teams: 6th, 7th, 11th, 9th, 12th. Also, the 14th comes in sixth place in either scenario. Whether looking at the quality of the top 5 or top 10 teams in each region, you have the same 6 regions that shake out on top. The 2nd region isn't even close. They have two top 20 teams then drop off significantly!

 

Also of note, here's the number of top 20 teams (in the Herald's rankings): the 6th, 9th, 11th and 12th regions each have three teams; the 7th and 2nd have two each.

11

7

6

9

14

12

10

2

4

5

1

8

15

16

3

13

Maybe the 2nd is just horribly down this year, but I think some of those rankings really understate how tough that region has been over the past 10-15 years. I don't know if there has ever been a year where they just got "blown out" or if there's been a time where they just had an awful loss. Lexington Catholic beat Hopson's UHA team badly, but it was fairly close in the 2nd half IIRC. Moral of the story: they've always brought it to the big show, no matter who they've played.

I think there's a difference in strength of a region, then there's strength of the winner of that region at Rupp. Love the underdogs.

Based on their strength this year (and this year only).

 

I usually put this one out on the day the draw is released so we can look back and see who did and didn't have a valid argument about getting a bad draw.

 

Maybe the 2nd is just horribly down this year, but I think some of those rankings really understate how tough that region has been over the past 10-15 years. I don't know if there has ever been a year where they just got "blown out" or if there's been a time where they just had an awful loss. Lexington Catholic beat Hopson's UHA team badly, but it was fairly close in the 2nd half IIRC. Moral of the story: they've always brought it to the big show, no matter who they've played.

 

:idunno:

11

7

6

9

14

12

10

2

4

5

1

8

15

16

3

13

I'd go

7

11

6

9

12

10

2

4

8

15

5

1

16

3

13

Here's a quick and dirty, very unscientific way to rank the regions. Total the Litrating points for the top 8 teams (a "theoretical strongest regional tournament field") in each region.

 

Again, holes can be blasted in this method, but for purposes of discussion here are the regional rankings using last Monday's Lit:

 

6th - 710

7th - 706

11th - 700

9th - 684

 

12th - 659

14th - 641

5th - 634

8th - 623

4th - 621

10th - 616

 

2nd - 591

13th - 583

3rd - 575

15th - 572

1st - 571

16th - 564

^ I like this. The Seventh is very top-heavy with Trinity and Ballard, but with a down year for Male and Eastern still rebuilding, I think the Sixth is markedly better from top to bottom.

There at least 7 teams in the top 4 regions listed here that could win the state, that won't make the state. Almost every year that can be said for the 6th, 7th, and 11th. Those four regionals will be exciting tourneys.