Who wins & why?

This is gonna be a good game. I'll take the Bobcats 35-31

Should be a great game; I believe that the Bobcats have the edge, but home field advantage could be the difference for the Pirates if being played at Belfry. Either way, should be a good one; good luck to both teams.

There really is no home field advantage in this series, and most of the games have been really close. Since the realignment in 1998 which put both teams in AA, they have met 7 times in the playoffs.

 

The home team in those games have a 2-5 record

Breathitt has a 4-3 advantage over Belfry

 

2011 @ Breathitt, Belfry 28 Breathitt 14 - Regionals

2008 @ Belfry, Breathitt 14 Belfry 12 - Semifinals

2007 @ Belfry, Belfry 62 Breathitt 28 - Semifinals

2002 @ Belfry, Breathitt 21 Belfry 0 - Regionals

2001 @ Breathitt, Belfry 27 Breathitt 26 - 2nd Rd

2000 @ Breathitt, Breathitt 28 Belfry 20 - 2nd Rd

1999 @ Belfry, Breathitt 47 Belfry 42 - 2nd Rd

Belfry Pirates

Playoff Appearances: 37

Regional Final Record: 16-12

 

Breathitt County Bobcats

Playoff Appearances: 27

Regional Final Record: 6-10

 

Past Playoff Meetings

1989 - Belfry 24, Breathitt County 13

1999 - Breathitt County 47, Belfry 42

2000 - Breathitt County 28, Belfry 20

2001 - Belfry 27, Breathitt County 26

2002 - Breathitt County 21, Belfry 0

2007 - Belfry 62, Breathitt County 28

2008 - Breathitt County 14, Belfry 12

2011 - Belfry 28, Breathitt County 14

Would LOVE to see this game! Hoping WYMT broadcast so I can DVR and watch after going to Somerset/Danville game.

It should be a good one Jumper Dad, I would like to see the Danville/Somerset game too. The Briarjumpers should be the favorite in that one.

I give the edge to the Pirates. Breathitt hasn't really been tested other than Hazard. Belfry takes this Mountain Classic Clash 34-20

Got to go with my friend Mike, Bobcats in a nail bitter 28-24.

Breathitt Co. ends a very weak schedule with no cupcake here.....Belfry 35 Breathitt 21

Give me the boys from Pike Co. 28-27

Rumors abound about Trent getting hurt in the 3rd quarter and leaving the game. Whether he came back or not is debatable, depending on who you ask. That leaves everyone wondering if he will be 100% for the game Friday, what the nature or extent of his injuries are. Which brings up the question of just how vital is Trent to this Breathitt County team?

 

Looking at Breathitt's stats (Pike Central game not included) it is amazing how dependent the Bobcats are on Trent.

 

He has rushed for 1016 yards, which is 43% of the team rushing total of 2379.

He has thrown for 2054 yards which is 98% of the team passing total of 2088.

 

That means his 3070 combined yards represents 69% of the team total yards of 4467.

 

Trent has scored 22 TDs rushing, 4 TDs receiving and a couple of 2 pt conversions for a total of 162 points scored

That represents 34% of the team total of 480 points scored

Trent has also thrown for 27 TDs, which is another 162 points, and another 34% of the team total.

 

So rushing, receiving and throwing, Trent is responsible for 68% of the team scoring. (not including any 2 point conversiong passing, which the KHSAA stats does not show)

 

Needless to say, any player responsible for 69% of your yardage and 68% of your scoring is a vital player on your team. I hope Trent is not badly injured and able to play Friday night. He is one heck of an athlete and if 100% will be the best player on the field in just about every game he plays. It would be a shame for him not to be able to compete in this huge matchup.

I ll take Belfry 24-12.

Rumors abound about Trent getting hurt in the 3rd quarter and leaving the game. Whether he came back or not is debatable, depending on who you ask. That leaves everyone wondering if he will be 100% for the game Friday, what the nature or extent of his injuries are. Which brings up the question of just how vital is Trent to this Breathitt County team?

 

Looking at Breathitt's stats (Pike Central game not included) it is amazing how dependent the Bobcats are on Trent.

 

He has rushed for 1016 yards, which is 43% of the team rushing total of 2379.

He has thrown for 2054 yards which is 98% of the team passing total of 2088.

 

That means his 3070 combined yards represents 69% of the team total yards of 4467.

 

Trent has scored 22 TDs rushing, 4 TDs receiving and a couple of 2 pt conversions for a total of 162 points scored

That represents 34% of the team total of 480 points scored

Trent has also thrown for 27 TDs, which is another 162 points, and another 34% of the team total.

 

So rushing, receiving and throwing, Trent is responsible for 68% of the team scoring. (not including any 2 point conversiong passing, which the KHSAA stats does not show)

 

Needless to say, any player responsible for 69% of your yardage and 68% of your scoring is a vital player on your team. I hope Trent is not badly injured and able to play Friday night. He is one heck of an athlete and if 100% will be the best player on the field in just about every game he plays. It would be a shame for him not to be able to compete in this huge matchup.

 

The conjecture I am hearing tusi is an injury to his non-throwing arm and he will be good to go. With that said, and as you eloquently pointed out with statistics, if his off hand is sore it begs to reason what effect it will have on him as a runner.

 

Breathitt clearly does not have the same dynamic running the ball as last year's team who had the Collins kid who ran for nearly 1500 yards whereas Trent also eclipsed the 1000 yard mark. This season Trent is on pace for similar numbers, but the second leading rusher sits at 422 rushing yards for the season. Belfry's general defensive philosophy is to focus on really taking one thing away from teams, and forcing them to beat them with the aspect they feel is the weakest. If Trent is reluctant to run the ball due to injury, it may drastically change the look of this game. Last season Belfry essentially stonewalled the Breathitt running game save a single long scamper by Trent.They opted to play soft against the pass and keep everything in front of them. Breathitt moved the ball well throwing, but never could sustain a scoring drive or connect on the deep ball.

My guess is Belfry will attempt to take away the run and force Breathitt to beat them in the air. They will rush 3 and cover with 8 and try to not give up the big play, while throwing in the occasional blitz or stunt by the LB or DE. This will leave them a little vulnerable in the flats and will matchup LB's and DE's trying to cover RB's. But I think, like you say, they will try to keep the ball in front of them and will be happy to give up that underneath stuff in exchange for tight coverage downfield. When Breathitt goes deep, and they will, then they hope their coverage gives them an opportunity at a pick.

 

The thing about that where we have been hurt in the past is with a mobile QB and an offense that spreads us out. I we do pressure him out of the pocket, we tend to give up a lot of rushing yards to the QB. Trent has the ability to really excel doing that, ala the big run he has last year.