For over thinkers. Cueto is your best pitcher. He goes game 1. Latos is by far your 2nd best pitcher. He goes game 2. Game 3 is a toss up, but I would go Arroyo. Down 2-1 You could entertain the idea of Cueto and Latos going on short rest. If Bailey goes game 2 you can't go short rest and possibly get 4 starts out of your best two. I know it's a really long shot but you could get a rainout in game 3 or 4 for full rest for Cueto and Latos. I don't see any scenario where you don't use your best two pitchers the first game.

 

I'd contest that this is the approach of under thinkers. Not everyone throws their 1 in game 1. This is why I said it's impossible to pick a rotation for the playoffs unless you're the manager. Too many variables. If you just look at who is your 1 and who is your 2 and don't bother to think about matchups, ballparks...etc., you're doing your team a disservice.

I think a very good case can be made that Latos is the team's #1 anyways.

 

I agree with going Cueto/Latos (I lean towards Latos especially if the West Coast) game 1, Bailey/Arroyo game 2, and Cueto/Latos game 3.

Cueto's bad outings probably will continue tonight, at least statwise. Vegas has tonight's over/under at 14 and winds are supposed to be blowing to left at 15-20 MPH.

You have to look at the whole picture. Latos owns the Giants, especially at San Fran. If Bailey is in the series rotation you simply have to pitch him on the road. No way around it. Cueto has proven he's just as good at home as he is on the road. Not lunacy at all. It makes perfect sense. Then you have Cueto set up to make 3 starts in the NLCS.

 

Except Homer Bailey has sucked at AT&T Park in his career as well and against the Giants.

 

Pitch your best pitchers games 1 & 2.

Cueto's bad outings probably will continue tonight, at least statwise. Vegas has tonight's over/under at 14 and winds are supposed to be blowing to left at 15-20 MPH.

 

He doesn't pitch tonight....Leake does.

I'd contest that this is the approach of under thinkers. Not everyone throws their 1 in game 1. This is why I said it's impossible to pick a rotation for the playoffs unless you're the manager. Too many variables. If you just look at who is your 1 and who is your 2 and don't bother to think about matchups, ballparks...etc., you're doing your team a disservice.

 

The Reds have 2 Aces and 3 C's. You don't use a C to sit an A.

Except Homer Bailey has sucked at AT&T Park in his career as well and against the Giants.

 

Pitch your best pitchers games 1 & 2.

 

 

If you're counting on Arroyo and Bailey to pitch games 3 or 4 at home you're making a huge mistake.

If you're counting on Arroyo and Bailey to pitch games 3 or 4 at home you're making a huge mistake.

 

Setting up your rotation for a series you haven't qualified for is a bigger one. Doesn't whoever they play have to pitch here too?

Edit...

The Reds have 2 Aces and 3 C's. You don't use a C to sit an A.

 

So you expect the 2 Aces to throw all 5 games, possibly? You need to throw the C anyway.

Setting up your rotation for a series you haven't qualified for is a bigger one. Doesn't whoever they play have to pitch here too?

 

Disagree....Breaking up Latos and Cueto is giving you the best chance to advance further while also setting it up for the next series.

I agree with that. If they open in San Fran, I would go with Latos in Game 1, and Bailey in Game 2.

 

Isn't one of the things people get on Dusty about is how he tries to go always go by the book and by the numbers? Instead of considering other factors in his decisions? Which I mean I understand why you all say Homer in game two since he has done great on the road. However how do you take a chance of not having the one guy on your team with experience, and probably the best off at handling a playoff atmosphere on the road not play in Arroyo? I mean in this scenario and I know its worst case scenario but in this case Arroyo might not pitch at all if they get swept. I just think Arroyo's experience and Homers lack of experience in environments like that also needs to be considered. There is a number of different ways Dusty can go about attacking this, and is a good problem to have though. I look forward to seeing what he does.

Latos and Cueto potentially 4 times is the way to go IMO.

He doesn't pitch tonight....Leake does.

My bad, I knew that. I don't why I forgot.

Lots of runs tonight regardless!

If people really want to go by the numbers. Then who the Reds may play also needs to count in this, and with it being the Giants most likely. If you go by the numbers there is even a better candidate to pitch on the road than Homer against them. It is Mike Leake. Over this last three starts against the Giants he has given up a total of 3 runs over 23 innings. In his last two starts on the road against the Giants Leake is 2 and 0 and has given up 1 run total over the last 17 innings against them. In his one start this year against them on the road he pitched a complete game giving up just one run. So if people want to use the numbers in deciding who should pitch what game, then Mike Leake needs to be added in this discussion for game two.

 

With that said if they do split up Latos and Cueto I still would have Arroyo in game two over anyone else.