He (Obama) trails Mike Huckabee 47-45 and Mitt Romney 45-44, ties Newt Gingrich at 45-45, and leads Sarah Palin 47-45. This is the weakest performance Obama's posted in these 13 monthly surveys and a pretty clear indication that passing health care has not done anything to enhance his political standing, at least in the short term.

 

It's not that any of the Republican candidates are particularly popular, or even that Obama's approval numbers have declined. But whereas in previous months a good number of the voters disapproving of his job performance weren't ready to commit to voting Republican in 2012 yet, now 85-89% of them do in each of these hypothetical contests. That suggests that even if Obama's overall unpopularity has not increased, the intensity of it has.

You folks think it's going to get better or worse for Obama the closer we get to 2012?

 

 

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You folks think it's going to get better or worse for Obama the closer we get to 2012?

 

 

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It will get better, much better. The economy was in the toilet and getting worse by the day when he took office. Right or wrong, he has taken a great deal of blame for it continuing to get worse during most of his first year. Now that it is getting better, right or wrong, he will get a great deal of credit as it improves.

Not sure at this point. It should get better but unemployment is going to play a huge role, as will his signature policy, health insurance reform. If people don't see that as a success by that point things could turn south for him.

 

As before, it's going to depend on how the independants view his success or lack thereof.

It will get better, much better. The economy was in the toilet and getting worse by the day when he took office. Right or wrong, he has taken a great deal of blame for it continuing to get worse during most of his first year. Now that it is getting better, right or wrong, he will get a great deal of credit as it improves.

It doesn't look as though the economy is the reason. Looks like the health care issue is what has turned the tide. Do you think people will forget that or grow accustomed to it by 2012? I see that as a possibility. I also see it being the reason he gets booted, just depends on how people are viewing it then.

I also think if he signs Cap & Trade into law, should it pass, he's gone. JMO.

It doesn't look as though the economy is the reason. Looks like the health care issue is what has turned the tide. Do you think people will forget that or grow accustomed to it by 2012? I see that as a possibility. I also see it being the reason he gets booted, just depends on how people are viewing it then.

I also think if he signs Cap & Trade into law should it pass, he's gone. JMO.

 

 

I think they will grow accustomed to it, myself. I think that as time goes by, people who are against it for the "unknowns" will find that what they didn't know, isn't hurting them.

I think they will grow accustomed to it, myself. I think that as time goes by, people who are against it for the "unknowns" will find that what they didn't know, isn't hurting them.

Possibly could happen that way. Then again, as time goes by those that thought it was going to be harmless may find out otherwise.

 

Like I said though, Cap & Trade would be a hurter for him, IMO.

Possibly could happen that way. Then again, as time goes by those that thought it was going to be harmless may find out otherwise.

 

Like I said though, Cap & Trade would be a hurter for him, IMO.

 

Do most people really know what Cap & Trade is? The Tea Partiers' heads might explode, but I don't think most people know enough to vote him out of office for it.

I see it being like the past three elections. Relatively close and divided amongst most Americans.

Interesting that Palin has the worst numbers of those listed. If she runs and somehow wins the nomination, Obama wins easily. It will be like Dole vs. Clinton. When Dole won the nomination, I said it is all over. No way he could beat Clinton. Same for Palin and I don't care what Obama does between now and 2012. Palin would be a horrible choice.

It doesn't look as though the economy is the reason. Looks like the health care issue is what has turned the tide. Do you think people will forget that or grow accustomed to it by 2012? I see that as a possibility. I also see it being the reason he gets booted, just depends on how people are viewing it then.

I also think if he signs Cap & Trade into law, should it pass, he's gone. JMO.

 

I think people will find out that most of what has been said against the Health Care Reform is a lie and that, while not perfect, it will result in an improvement in health insurance. Specific lies that have been used to turn people against the health care bill:

 

1. Death panels. The death panels were a lie from the beginning. They never existed and still don't. How betrayed will people feel when they find out that there are no death panels.

 

2. Government between you and your doctor. Another lie that was never true. The only people getting between you and your doctor will be from the private insurance company. The only controls to limit what the insurance company can do will come from the protections in the bill. Still not perfect, but a big improvement over the current situation.

 

3. Government takeover of health care. Another lie, unless you consider speed limits to be a government takeover of driving. The truth is that insurance will continue to be provided by PRIVATE health insurance companies.

 

4. Government funding of elective abortions or elective abortion insurance. Another lie. There is no, and I repeat NO federal funding of elective abortions or insurance coveage of elective abortions. The health care law makes no changes in the restrictions of the Hyde amendment.

 

There is a start on reasons why people will find out that they have been lied to about the health care bill. How angry will they be when they find out?

Do most people really know what Cap & Trade is? The Tea Partiers' heads might explode, but I don't think most people know enough to vote him out of office for it.

 

No, most people don't understand what cap and trade is, so that rely on sound bite terms like cap and tax. Interesting historical note. In the early 70's a cap and trade approach was proposed as a way to control sulfur dioxide, BY THE REPUBLICANS. The environmental movement was strongly against the appoach. They wanted a BAT (Best Available Technology)/ Discharge limit approach. The cap and trade approach was implemented with great success. Now it is the environmentalists in favor of a market approach like cap and trade and the right is against doing anything.

Head to head polls this early are almost meaningless. Respondents don't take them seriously and we aren't even looking at the full cast of the Republican primary slate or the issues that will be important in 2012.

 

That looks to be a weak Republican field as well. Huckabee and Palin would be sacrificial lambs. I think Ron Paul is too extreme. Romney can't win the primary because of his signature as governor on a nearly identical healthcare policy that Obama has promoted. I like Pawlenty but I think he lacks the charisma to best an incumbent. I think Gingrich would be the most formidable. Although he has some baggage and I'm not sure how that will play amongst the entirety of the electorate, especially since he caters exclusively to conservatives. I assume there will be a few new faces as the election nears, though.

 

Obama's favorability numbers are typical, if not a bit higher than most early first-term presidents. He has one huge legislative accomplishment in his pocket that most other first-term presidents haven't had. Not to mention the electoral advantage of being an incumbent is unparalleled. The single largest factor is the economy. If it stays as is through 2012 he will have a very, very tough race and likely be beaten by any opponent. If the economy turns around he will have a hand-ride to a second election victory.

It will get better. Too many people don't follow politics at all and they end up voting. I think the health bill was extremely back loaded for that reason. As long as the economy doesn't tank he's fine. I really think the Democrats have a huge advantage right now in planning election strategy. They seem to be two moves ahead of Republicans. Also like Habib said as of now there isn't a strong candidate. I hope Mitch Daniels makes a run.

It will get worse. Much worse. We simply cannot continue with the current tax model that exists today. We have far to few people paying a disproportionate share of taxes and have way to many folks getting a "free" ride and not paying any taxes (50%). This is the road to perdition. You cannot increase taxes on the wealthy (>200K) every time the government needs to pay for social programs. Not the way our founding fathers set this whole thing up.

Do most people really know what Cap & Trade is? The Tea Partiers' heads might explode, but I don't think most people know enough to vote him out of office for it.

 

Depends on how it would be set up and how quickly they would feel it in their wallets.