Luke will be leaving on Wednesday to Boston for his workouts.

Its going to be an interesting two weeks for Luke and the Sox as the deadline approaches.

 

As I stated previously, this was a signabilty pick and not a pick based on where they see his talent. They know he's a high round talent.

Its going to be an interesting two weeks for Luke and the Sox as the deadline approaches.

 

As I stated previously, this was a signabilty pick and not a pick based on where they see his talent. They know he's a high round talent.

 

Any update on negotiations?

Any update on negotiations?

 

 

Ryan Ernst's blog says "No update". It is interesting to me how this works. So I read a lot.

Looking at PGcrosschecker, I found some interesting numbers:

26 of 49 1st round/supplemental 1st rnd kids unsigned

10 of 31 2nd round

8 of 30 3rd round

7 of 30 4th round

9 of 30 5th round

8 of 30 6th round

5 of 30 7th round

4 of 30 8th round

5 of 30 9th round

9 of 30 10th round

 

So i guess you could say that it's not terribly unusual, however, more than 2/3rds have signed. In addition, I noticed that the bonuses to date are pretty much within "slot" with a few slightly low/high numbers for a particular round. For example here are the lowest and highest amounts per round to date:

1st ranges from $900k - $2.5

2nd $700k -$980k

3rd $200K - $450K

4th $75k - $250K

5th $30k - $200k

6th $15K - $298K

7th $100k - $350k

8th $25k - $200k

9th $25k - $150k

10th $10k $150k

I've heard that Ferris and Maile were both serious 3rd to 10th rounders, but neither would accept those slots financially, looking at these numbers, I understand that better.

When I look at numbers from previous years, I find that there are several bonuses that stand out as much higher than the rest in a particular round. Like a 7th rounder getting $1.1m last year, and there are others.

A team that is considering paying much above "slot" is not going to do that until the last hour as it would potentially cause problems with other negotiations.

 

None of this to say that Luke is going to receive a high offer simply because he is getting down to the wire..who knows? He could quite possibly get no offer at all from what I've read about past drafts.

 

It seems that the logic behind drafting a kid who you know is not going to sign for slot as he has good grades, scholly, etc is that you want to 'own' the rights to him while you work through the summer. If you get a kid or two who you perceive to have similar tools etc for less money, then you let the kid go. If however, you decide that he is your first/best choice then you go late and try to go as low as you can, knowing you're going to pay well above slot. Waiting serves two purposes: pressure on the kid to accept an offer as the clock is literally running out and only paying above slot at the very last minute. For a team with the resources, it's like getting a second 2nd round pick for example. Not all teams can even consider that type of strategy as they have limited money.

 

My guess is that this kid feels he is worth more than typical 'slot' money in most rounds. He has the ability to gamble on moving himself up after college...so if you're not going to sign for 5th round money, why would most teams take you in the 11th, 15th or even 30th when they have another kid who will sign for that slot? Most teams just move on as he is "unsignable" to them...some, (like the RedSox), gamble with a really high round and at least leave themselves the option for a late in the summer signing.. (ie Ferris / Maile / Meyer (pitcher at UK went 20th turned down $2M)...if a kid is done growing, or not a great student, or really needs money...it's a different strategy I would think.

 

Anyway, it's an interesting business and I know I don't understand all of the nuances involved. But, if I'm counseling a kid with academic talent, with good projections, good size, plus plus arm, plus bat, plus speed and plus make up (like both of our local boys) but, doesn't yet have enough fine tuning to be a solid high rounder in anyone's eyes...I say stand firm and go to college...work your rear off, get your fine tuning, get bigger and stronger, and position yourself higher than you were out of h.s....oh yeah, and let's win the SEC and visit Omaha while you're there!

I think we'll be seeing him at UK next year.

I think we'll be seeing him at UK next year.

 

I hope so but would completely understand getting paid to play ball year round. I still think the college atmosphere is hard to pass up at U.K.. Good luck to Luke wherever he ends up. Great young man.

He'll be at UK. :thumb:

Looking at these numbers and what the past trends have been, I would think he's a UK player this fall unless he gets a hefty salary. It's nice to see where these blogs can educate some if not most on how involved the process is, and on the other hand how it could change in a day. Luke will be fine at UK and only build upon his resume. :thumb:

For those that state with seeming certainty that he will be at UK next year, what is your reasoning? I will assume money. If so, how much do you think it would take to get him to change his mind? How much do you think the Sox are willing to offer?

For those that state with seeming certainty that he will be at UK next year, what is your reasoning? I will assume money. If so, how much do you think it would take to get him to change his mind? How much do you think the Sox are willing to offer?

 

Spoke with him this weekend

Spoke with him this weekend

 

....aaaannnnd......?

Spoke with him this weekend

 

:thumb:

He had UK cookies at his graduation party, not Boston Red Sox cookies. That's why I know.

He had UK cookies at his graduation party, not Boston Red Sox cookies. That's why I know.

 

lol that is a good reason.

 

But I dont think it is money, I just think that Luke knows the smart thing to do would be to go to college and improve upon his skills so that he gets drafted higher thus increasing his pay opportunity. He likely will be in a much better position three years from now.

lol that is a good reason.

 

But I dont think it is money, I just think that Luke knows the smart thing to do would be to go to college and improve upon his skills so that he gets drafted higher thus increasing his pay opportunity. He likely will be in a much better position three years from now.

 

Amen! It would take a bunch of money to change his mind at this point. It couldn't have been said any better than Oscar's comment. Is he good? Absolutley! Is he at this point going to warrant a major league salary? Probably not. However, putting a couple years of play behind him will increase his marketability. He will get the best of both by getting his education and bringing his game to the next level while at UK. This IMO will afford him the opportunity to either draw a nice living from baseball or provide him the tools to be a successful young man outside of baseball in the work force. Win..win situation.