How does a very average shortstop move them from very average to above average?

 

Even if it would it is a stretch to expect a full season out of Gonzalez. He's been in the big leagues 10 full seasons and has only topped 140 games 3 times and played in less than 120 5 times. I wouldn't want my season hinging on him.

 

Their season is hinging on Harang returning to form, Arroyo being consistant, Volquez proving he's a front of the rotation guy (not a one year wonder) and Cueto improving on last year. Those things happen and they'll be in the contention, IMO

I think that Micah Owings was a good addition to this team. I believe he will have a career year. Just a hunch

Considering last year their SS was below average IMO, getting an experienced SS back will not only make the defense up the middle better, it will provide another bat in the lineup with a little pop. If he's healthy he will hit 15-20 HR with somewhere around 30 2B. That's not something you could say about Keppinger or Hairston. IMO, Keppinger is a defensive liability at SS with limited range.

 

 

 

Gonzalez's RF and Fielding % were below the league average in 2007. With a full season off and leg problems what makes you think they'll improve?

Gonzalez's RF and Fielding % were below the league average in 2007. With a full season off and leg problems what makes you think they'll improve?

 

Range Factor is one of those meaningless stats, IMO. Also fielding % can be very misleading. In 2007, I saw him get to balls that Keppinger wouldn't have came close to. While he may boot some of the balls he got to, he also may have very well saved a lot of baserunners. He's well known across the league for his range and defense, so i'll take their opinion, and what I saw in 2007. His range may have decreased after the injuries, but it also may not have. I'll take him over Keppinger any day of the week, both offensively and in the field.

Their season is hinging on Harang returning to form, Arroyo being consistant, Volquez proving he's a front of the rotation guy (not a one year wonder) and Cueto improving on last year. Those things happen and they'll be in the contention, IMO

 

I think Harang is the big one. If you're wanting consistency out of Arroyo you're probably in trouble. The type of touch he has to have on his pitches to be effective makes it almost impossible to be consistant from start to start, let alone over a whole season. He will take the ball and eat up innings but they aren't alway quality innings. Volquez may not improve but if he just doesn't fall back he's a quality starter. Cueto's develpment if vital and he has to get over the homerun bug if he's ever going to be effective at GABP.

 

I just can't see this team contending past the first half. Their additions all come with huge question marks. Tavares improves their speed and is a good defensive player but he has NO POP and a poor on base percentage which is not good considering on of the teams biggest problems last season was getting guys on base in front of the RBI guys. The left field platoon of Dickerson/Gomes is just not something you want to have to depend on either it could be average at the high end and could be awful. Dickerson's audition looks good on the surface but if you look a little bit deeper there is plenty of reason for concern. He was already 26 which leads you to believe that there is some major flaw as a hitter that kept him in the Minors that long--if so it will be exploited as the goes around the league again. Also, he struck out 35 times in 102 at bats which make his .305 average seem like fool's gold. Usually a higher percentage of balls put in play are turned into outs--if he continues to strikeout at that rate look for his average to drop 25-35 points. And the platoon likely won't help the strikeout numbers as his rate was much lower against lefties. Gomes is a very poor fielder who hits lefties somewhat but won't be much of a factor. Hernandez at catcher is probably an improvement offensively and he has a decent arm at this point in his career. He is NOT however known as a good handler of pitchers and that is not a good thing with so many youngsters in the Reds plans. I'm not sure if the 10 extra homers he'll hit will be worth it. Owings, well he's a good hitter. Unfortunately, he also gives up homers by the bunch and had a 1.325 WHIP. GABP won't be kind to him but he could hit 10+ homers if he wins a rotation start. Arthur Rhodes is still effective at 87 years old but not a diffence maker and the rest of the pen is still suspect as long as Lincoln and Weathers are involved and Coco has to show that he can pitch like 2005 and 2007 and not the rest of his career. I just don't see this team reaching .500 this season.

I think Harang is the big one. If you're wanting consistency out of Arroyo you're probably in trouble. The type of touch he has to have on his pitches to be effective makes it almost impossible to be consistant from start to start, let alone over a whole season. He will take the ball and eat up innings but they aren't alway quality innings. Volquez may not improve but if he just doesn't fall back he's a quality starter. Cueto's develpment if vital and he has to get over the homerun bug if he's ever going to be effective at GABP.

 

I just can't see this team contending past the first half. Their additions all come with huge question marks. Tavares improves their speed and is a good defensive player but he has NO POP and a poor on base percentage which is not good considering on of the teams biggest problems last season was getting guys on base in front of the RBI guys. The left field platoon of Dickerson/Gomes is just not something you want to have to depend on either it could be average at the high end and could be awful. Dickerson's audition looks good on the surface but if you look a little bit deeper there is plenty of reason for concern. He was already 26 which leads you to believe that there is some major flaw as a hitter that kept him in the Minors that long--if so it will be exploited as the goes around the league again. Also, he struck out 35 times in 102 at bats which make his .305 average seem like fool's gold. Usually a higher percentage of balls put in play are turned into outs--if he continues to strikeout at that rate look for his average to drop 25-35 points. And the platoon likely won't help the strikeout numbers as his rate was much lower against lefties. Gomes is a very poor fielder who hits lefties somewhat but won't be much of a factor. Hernandez at catcher is probably an improvement offensively and he has a decent arm at this point in his career. He is NOT however known as a good handler of pitchers and that is not a good thing with so many youngsters in the Reds plans. I'm not sure if the 10 extra homers he'll hit will be worth it. Owings, well he's a good hitter. Unfortunately, he also gives up homers by the bunch and had a 1.325 WHIP. GABP won't be kind to him but he could hit 10+ homers if he wins a rotation start. Arthur Rhodes is still effective at 87 years old but not a diffence maker and the rest of the pen is still suspect as long as Lincoln and Weathers are involved and Coco has to show that he can pitch like 2005 and 2007 and not the rest of his career. I just don't see this team reaching .500 this season.

 

Arroyo was great the rest of the year after he got shelled in Toronto. He doesn't need to be great, he just needs to keep them in games. I would not have traded for Hernandez simply because I think Hanigan has the ability to be a very good C who can call a good game.

 

With that said, do I think the Reds will compete the entire 2009 season? No. Are they improved from 2008? IMO, yes. Mainly because I think Harang will become an ace again and Cueto will improve. If they can get to the 7th inning tied or in the lead, I think they'll win a lot of games. If they can't do that then they'll be bad.

Reds are better than last year at this time. Hernandez will hit .250 and 20+ HRs, so major step up on offense. If Harrang comes back and Bronson has a complete season the pitching staff looks really good. Agon coming back makes them really strong up the middle. They could surprise people.

Reds are better than last year at this time. Hernandez will hit .250 and 20+ HRs, so major step up on offense. If Harrang comes back and Bronson has a complete season the pitching staff looks really good. Agon coming back makes them really strong up the middle. They could surprise people.

 

I will agree they are better. More through subtraction than addition though.

Astros are terrible, Cards are very average. Right now the Reds are very average. If Alex Gonzalez is the everyday SS they are above average IMO.

 

Not really sure how you can say the Astros are terrible and the Reds are very average...Going into the season I think that the Cards are a lot better than the Reds. The Cards have a better offense, defense, bullpen and (maybe) starting pitching.

Reds are better than last year at this time. Hernandez will hit .250 and 20+ HRs, so major step up on offense. If Harrang comes back and Bronson has a complete season the pitching staff looks really good. Agon coming back makes them really strong up the middle. They could surprise people.

 

I love it how when a player is signed by the Reds fans always assume that they will immediately revert back to whatever their numbers were for their career year. It will be a suprise if Hernandez hits over 15 homers. He's hit a TOTAL of 24 the last 2 years in a hitters park in Baltimore and his OBP has dropped from 35 points in that time. He'll turn 33 in June, and is very unlikely to have a resurgance as a hitter at that age. Also, his arm, which was always his biggest asset as a catcher appears to be fading as well. His stolen bases allowed climbed from 55 to 63 to 99 even though he caught less games in 2007 and 2008 than in 2006.

 

As for Bronson, good luck with that. He's got a 71-70 career record and is 38-37 for the Reds. He is what he is, a #4 or #5 starter that will win and lose in double figures and throw a lot of innings. He has to be too fine with his stuff to ever expect him to suddenly turn in a 20-5 season. He'll win between 10-15 games and lose between 10-15 games. If Harang and Cueto can improve and he can be the #4 they'll be decent. If not and he's #3 or #2 they're in for a long, long season.

 

Gonzalez will help and the Reds will be nice defensively up the middle IF he can play more than 130 games--which isn't likely given his history. Either way with Encarnacion and Votto will be brutal on the corners. I just see a very average, 70-80 win team.

The division will be up for grabs this year, IMO. I don't see a clear cut favorite, but I do like the Reds pitching. Man, that seems odd to say.:idunno:

The division will be up for grabs this year, IMO. I don't see a clear cut favorite, but I do like the Reds pitching. Man, that seems odd to say.:idunno:

 

Cubs are clear cut favorites IMO.

I'd say your probably right. Guess I meant Teams that could actually win a World Series.

I'd say your probably right. Guess I meant Teams that could actually win a World Series.

 

:lol: Your exactly right the Cubs probably will win 105 games this year but will lose in the NLDS.

Not really sure how you can say the Astros are terrible and the Reds are very average...Going into the season I think that the Cards are a lot better than the Reds. The Cards have a better offense, defense, bullpen and (maybe) starting pitching.

 

No chance St. Louis has a better bullpen and starting rotation than the Reds.