The last poll I saw was Saturday night the 25th on CNBC an it had Steve at 58% and Ernie at 39% and 3% undecided

You think playing bingo at church is no different than a casino??? BIG difference.

The point is that they are all what would be referred to by some as "vice booths" (gambling or drinking). And I noticed you left out the gambling booth. It was blackjack tables. The point is, some of the people that Fletcher will need to win don't see gambling as a problem and in fact enjoy it. I don't see anti-gambling as a long term platform for the state.

25 years ago his stance against casinos would probably have helped him, but I don't think it will be a factor in this day and time. It's a non-issue ,imo, in most voters minds.

I don't think he has a chance in this race, but he might make it a little closer in the end. He will take a beating in heavily democratic southeast Kentucky (Breathitt County 93% registered democrats, for instance), and I feel western Kentucky is lost also. I am a Republican, but that's how I see it.

The last poll I saw was Saturday night the 25th on CNBC an it had Steve at 58% and Ernie at 39% and 3% undecided

 

Let's hope the people of Kentucky are smart enough to keep it at that margin.

25 years ago his stance against casinos would probably have helped him, but I don't think it will be a factor in this day and time. It's a non-issue ,imo, in most voters minds.

I don't think he has a chance in this race, but he might make it a little closer in the end. He will take a beating in heavily democratic southeast Kentucky (Breathitt County 93% registered democrats, for instance), and I feel western Kentucky is lost also. I am a Republican, but that's how I see it.

 

 

I agree. I remember the '87 campaign when Wilkinson's only promo was for the lottery. Some said, "That will beat him in conservative KY." He won pretty big if I recall.

Being in the buckle of the Bible Belt, I think it will win him the race.

 

Unfortunately, in some areas where that might help the same Bible Belt people also wouldn't vote for a Republican if you held a gun to their head...not sure Ernie can have the same success on a state level that W had on the national stage...

 

I do think it will help him though. It's a real dividing issue and that is always a plus because if people feel really strongly about something, it blinds them to everything else, so they'll vote for Fletcher based on that one issue without seriously looking at everything else.

I don't think Fletcher's stance on gambling gets him any more votes than he already has. It basically appeals to supporters that are already with him.

 

He needs registered Democrats to win this election, and the stance on gambling will not get it done.

 

His problem is that he won four years ago by campaigning that he would clean up the mess in Frankfort, but instead created his own mess. That will come back to haunt him this time around.

Let's hope the people of Kentucky are smart enough to keep it at that margin.

I am not sure it is too smart to vote for anyone running in this election. Both candidates have problems it seems to me. However, I think that Ernie may be helped with his no gambling stance. I personally feel he is the lesser of two evils . . .

Sounds like the Fletcher camp does not appreciate Senator Bunning's opinions a whole lot .

 

Heck, I'm in both of their camps and I wish the esteemed Senator would learn to keep his mouth closed. Jim's ego cannot accept that a lowly Governor will not follow every bit of advise that Jim provides.

 

And I do think it will help Fletcher. Based on past polling on the racino issue, the two areas most heavily in favor of racinos were N. Ky and Louisville, as I recall. The 'villites probably are going to vote against Fletcher regardless of his position on racinos and Fletcher has been so good for N. Ky that Bucktuckians will still vote for him even if he is against racinos. If his stance pulls over some Bible thumping Democrats throughout Ky like I think it will, it will be a big benefit. I'm for racinos, but I'll still vote for him for reasons previously listed in typical LN pontification style.

It's a real dividing issue and that is always a plus because if people feel really strongly about something, it blinds them to everything else, so they'll vote for Fletcher based on that one issue without seriously looking at everything else.

 

That is exactly what the campaign is trying to do. Beshear has way too much mud to throw at Fletcher if the campaign is about each individual. I just don't believe it's going to be that effective. Beshear is still going to be able to talk about the merit hiring scandal while Fletcher alienates a lot of Republicans who want casinos.

 

On another note, I don't know why Beshear doesn't come to NKY and promise to throw money at the area. He's been very tepid about the region and it probably stops a lot of moderates who lean Republican from voting for him.

Bottom line is Beshear is up around 20 points in every poll I've seen. If there isn't serious movement in those polls in the next month the Anti Casino message isn't working. If there is only minimal movement in those polls it's too late. People tend to jump on candidates that look like winners. If at the end of September Beshear is looking like a winner and Fletcher has fired all his shots. Beshear wins.

Bottom line is Beshear is up around 20 points in every poll I've seen. If there isn't serious movement in those polls in the next month the Anti Casino message isn't working. If there is only minimal movement in those polls it's too late. People tend to jump on candidates that look like winners. If at the end of September Beshear is looking like a winner and Fletcher has fired all his shots. Beshear wins.

 

 

 

:thumb:

That is exactly what the campaign is trying to do. Beshear has way too much mud to throw at Fletcher if the campaign is about each individual. I just don't believe it's going to be that effective. Beshear is still going to be able to talk about the merit hiring scandal while Fletcher alienates a lot of Republicans who want casinos.

 

On another note, I don't know why Beshear doesn't come to NKY and promise to throw money at the area. He's been very tepid about the region and it probably stops a lot of moderates who lean Republican from voting for him.

 

I'm not a political expert by any means, and I don't have a lot of insight about how this race will unfold. I do think Fletcher has a better chance than many people thought he would when the hiring scandal was at it's peak. He has done some good things, so he has some positives to point to. But, it doesn't take a genius to see the strategy involved with this gambling thing...it's similar to pro-life on the national level, IMO. Put all the focus on one issue and you don't have to address the others...

There is another way to look at this. If there are enough anti gambling votes out there to elect Fletcher there is no way Beshear can get it passed. If the state would vote to allow gambling, then anti-gambling won't elect Fletcher.

My stance is that Fletcher has no problem with me spending $500 playing bingo, betting on the horses at Keeneland and Churchill Downs or playing the lottery twice a week...but heaven forbid letting the "people" a.k.a "His Bosses" decide if we want to have the expanded gambling in the state to take place. Also kinda funny that the Governor waited until after the first initial poll came out showing him behind by over twenty percent before he made his "I am morally against gambling" speech to come out.

 

Funny thing is that I had a chance to ask the Governor some of these questions on the record when he came to Fancy Farm and he could not come up with an answer...especially the part of the difference of gambling with bingo money and blackjack money...especially seeing how we were 20 feet away from the bingo pavillion that was packed and for an event that raises money for the Catholic Church in Fancy Farm.

 

Let me preface all of this by saying I am not a huge Beshear fan either...just saying like most of his four years in office...Fletcher is listening to the wrong people making the wrong decisions for him.