June 14, 200719 yr Amen and I saw some statistics, years ago about when the leadoff man reaches, the % of scoring is amazing. I swear I saw a stat years ago that said over 80 percent, maybe even 90 percent of the time. A lead off walk will score, I couldn't find the story to go along with that. You always see wild pitches, errors or just routine things that go wrong after that happens. That's exactly what's happened this inning. Not to mention Homer having a hard time getting ahead in the count.
June 14, 200719 yr This inning is excruciating It's going to take several starts before Homer really gets in a groove. Doesn't help things the two teams he has faced are two of the best in baseball.
June 14, 200719 yr I swear I saw a stat years ago that said over 80 percent, maybe even 90 percent of the time. A lead off walk will score, I couldn't find the story to go along with that. You always see wild pitches, errors or just routine things that go wrong after that happens. That's exactly what's happened this inning. Not to mention Homer having a hard time getting ahead in the count. I was thinking, near 70%-80% as well. For some reason, I thought the % was higher, if they walked as opposed to getting a hit.
June 14, 200719 yr Last game and this game, Homer can get nothing but his fastball over the plate. That, my friends, is why they invented AAA. I love the "he has nothing else to learn in AAA" rhetoric. Really? How about how to get something off-speed into the strike zone? Think that might help?
June 14, 200719 yr It's going to take several starts before Homer really gets in a groove. Doesn't help things the two teams he has faced are two of the best in baseball. Agreed. I would guess the plan for him is have him in the rotation for the remainder of the season, to acclimate himself to big league hitting, and have him ready to rock next year.
June 14, 200719 yr This is a big inning for Homer, heart of the order after a tough last inning. He seemed to handle adversity well his first start, let's see if he can continue that.
June 14, 200719 yr I was thinking, near 70%-80% as well. For some reason, I thought the % was higher, if they walked as opposed to getting a hit. I'm pretty sure that I recently read in a geeky stats book that there is no significant difference between the % of time scoring when getting a leadoff walk vs a leadoff hit. From 1999 to 2002, a no out runner on 1st situation had an expected runs scored in that inning of .953 (ie almost 1 one scored that inning every time a team was in that situation).
June 14, 200719 yr What the heck is going on? I lost track of the link to the Bad News Bears theme. You can just hum it, it's just as good as the real thing. :lol:
June 14, 200719 yr Last game and this game, Homer can get nothing but his fastball over the plate. That, my friends, is why they invented AAA. I love the "he has nothing else to learn in AAA" rhetoric. Really? How about how to get something off-speed into the strike zone? Think that might help? From everything I read about Bailey, this was his achilles heal, not having command of the breaking pitches. MLB hitters, eat FB's for breakfast, lunch, dinner and snacks. If he hasn't, Bailey must acquire command for the breaking pitches and change, or he will struggle, as any pitcher would. I stated before and will reiterate, like HSSB said, let him develop first and then bring him up. He may win 4 in a row and then again, he may lose 4 in a row. The Reds need quality starting pitching desperately and I hope, Bailey can develop into one, but not in a pressure packed/have to role.
June 14, 200719 yr Dunn now has 39, Phillips has 34. It would have to be a team effort picking up those runs that Dunn drove in. Dunn is in position more often to drive those runs in than other Reds batters.
June 14, 200719 yr Best stat I saw last night: Vladdy is 16 for 28 scoring the runner from 3rd with less than 2 outs. Dunn is, after last night, 7 for 10. Griffey has about 16 chances and is under 50%. The two biggest things that this screams: 1) Look who has the best percentage of those 3 -- you'd have lost that bet (as would I have). 2) Look how many more attempts to drive in a run from 3rd with less than 2 outs Vladdy has with Figgins and Cabrera in front of him than Dunn has had. That flat out isn't his fault. Eye opening. Did anyone else catch these numbers last night? I'm the only one surprised at the disparity in chances? :confused:
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