I'm pretty sure that I recently read in a geeky stats book that there is no significant difference between the % of time scoring when getting a leadoff walk vs a leadoff hit.

 

From 1999 to 2002, a no out runner on 1st situation had an expected runs scored in that inning of .953 (ie almost 1 one scored that inning every time a team was in that situation).

First of all, no such thing as a geeky stat book, when referring to Baseball....

 

Interesting numbers and just goes to show you, all those times coaches have said, not to let that leadoff man on. Easier said, than done at times.

What happened?

 

According to Brantley, Hobbs couldn't make a catch on a fly ball. Stole 3rd and Vlad got a sac fly and then Phillips couldn't get the ball to 1st in time, infield hit.

Dunn is in position more often to drive those runs in than other Reds batters.

 

Really? Griffey has had more plate appearances with a runner at 3rd and less than two outs and has come through far less often (as a percentage). :walk:

 

Why let truths get in the way of perception.

According to Brantley, Hobbs couldn't make a catch on a fly ball. Stole 3rd and Vlad got a sac fly and then Phillips couldn't get the ball to 1st in time, infield hit.

 

 

Trade Hamilton too. :sssh:

Dunn is in position more often to drive those runs in than other Reds batters.

That is why, he's hitting in the spot he is and not his fault, if the Reds have no true leadoff man and no speed at the top of the order.

Homer isn't going to go 6 today, if he can just keep the Reds in the game, maybe the offense can get something going late.

The Reds need quality starting pitching desperately and I hope, Bailey can develop into one, but not in a pressure packed/have to role.

 

No matter when Bailey came up it was going to be pressure packed due to the hype surrounding him. However, why would this not be a good time? The Reds are in last place, and until this week, were headed even further into the cellar. Where is the pressure for him to perform in terms of what it means in the standings? I believe that this is a perfect time for him to work out the kinks, get used to the MLB atmosphere, and still have room to develop as a starter. He's shown that he's a better alternative than Livingston or Milton before he got hurt.

Really? Griffey has had more plate appearances with a runner at 3rd and less than two outs and has come through far less often (as a percentage). :walk:

 

Why let truths get in the way of perception.

 

I never said Griffey was great in the clutch, but he wasn't at issue. Dunn was being discussed. You can not say that Dunn consistently drives in runs with runners in scoring position. That runner on third stat was nice, but what about runners in scoring position??? What about with two outs?

Really? Griffey has had more plate appearances with a runner at 3rd and less than two outs and has come through far less often (as a percentage). :walk:

 

Why let truths get in the way of perception.

 

 

That's why the Reds need to hit him 3-4 instead of 5-6.

I never said Griffey was great in the clutch, but he wasn't at issue. Dunn was being discussed. You can not say that Dunn consistently drives in runs with runners in scoring position. That runner on third stat was nice, but what about runners in scoring position??? What about with two outs?

 

I'm not claiming he is "clutch" either. I'm saying, look how often Vladdy gets the shot with runners on 3rd compared to Dunn and Griffey? That is a BIG part of the problem. Freel is a clown and the rest of the guys hitting lead-off aren't getting on base. Secondly, you have to admit that Dunn driving in those runners 70% of the time surprises you. Lastly, you mean a 2-out RBI like today?

6 strikeouts looking and Thom makes a great point that the Reds hitters should know by now what the umpire is calling.

6 strikeouts looking and Thom makes a great point that the Reds hitters should know by now what the umpire is calling.

 

6 k's in 11 hitters and one wasn't Dunn? What are the odds....

6 k's in 11 hitters and one wasn't Dunn? What are the odds....

 

Dunn is too busy being CLUTCH today! :thumb:

Dunn is too busy being CLUTCH today! :thumb:

:laugh:

I'm not claiming he is "clutch" either. I'm saying, look how often Vladdy gets the shot with runners on 3rd compared to Dunn and Griffey? That is a BIG part of the problem. Freel is a clown and the rest of the guys hitting lead-off aren't getting on base. Secondly, you have to admit that Dunn driving in those runners 70% of the time surprises you. Lastly, you mean a 2-out RBI like today?

 

I agree, the Reds as a team are terrible at getting on base. 2nd, I wouldn't have believed that third base state either. 3rd, even a blind squirrel catches a nut sometimes, I mean '98 found a great woman, so anything can happen.