This is what the 18z GFS is showing. This will change.

2 hours ago, nWo said:

This is what the 18z GFS is showing. This will change.

@nWo You think we'll even approach those numbers?

NWS hourly forecast predicting about a third of that prediction above for Pulaski County.

4 hours ago, Jumper_Dad said:

@nWo You think we'll even approach those numbers?

NWS hourly forecast predicting about a third of that prediction above for Pulaski County.

Not yet. As I mentioned, there really is no way to predict how much snow anyone will receive from this far in advance. The 00z GFS is showing now 1-2 inches for your area and 14+ for the Cincinnatti/NKY area. So things change with each model run. Probably won't start getting a good read until Thursday or maybe Friday.

It looks increasingly likely that Kentucky may be hit by a significant winter storm early next week.

 

Update from the NWS Weather Prediction Center:

 

Mrs nWo and I have been preparing for this possible event. I got my kerosine heater out and did a check on it and my cordles snow shovel. We went to the store today and more than likely will make another trip before the weekend. 

I just received the following email from the NWS-Louisville office a few seconds ago:

Quote

 

Good Afternoon,

A potentially significant winter storm is forecast to impact the region Sunday and Monday. Our forecast confidence in this event taking place is high. However, our forecast confidence on the exact track and evolution of this storm remains uncertain. Significant amounts of wintry precipitation including snow, sleet, and freezing rain are expected.

Precipitation is expected to begin Sunday morning as snow, but will likely change over to a wintry mix during the day on Sunday. There is a threat of significant icing over the northern half of Kentucky, mainly along and north of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways. The attached map shows our latest thoughts. However, the forecast may change a bit over the coming days. If future forecast trends continue to hold, Winter Storm Watches will likely be needed by Friday. A conference call is likely to occur on Friday as well.

Our next update will be Thursday morning.

Sincerely,

NWS Louisville, KY

 

I wanted to check in with everyone and share the current GFS data as of this afternoon. These totals will change as we get closer. I wanted to share my observations with everyone. The potential freezing rain totals are the one item that worries me. If these totals materialize, massive power outages will result. The way the models are trending, it is almost certain a major winter storm will pass through Kentucky Sunday-Monday.

 

 

Thursday 1/2 morning update

 

The NWS-Louisville office just sent me the following update. They say this will be a significant and impactful winter storm. This event is now predicted to start Sunday morning and last into the day on Monday. Everyone should start preparing for widespread power outages and a significant impact on travel.

 

Quote

 

Good Morning,

Confidence continues to grow for a significant and impactful winter storm Sunday morning into Monday midday. This storm will produce significant amounts of wintry precipitation from snow, sleet, freezing rain and for some, a period of rain. The only uncertainty at this point remains the track of this system and the overall evolution and how the wintry precipitation will be distributed across the area.

Precipitation is expected to start Sunday morning, mainly in the form of snow with a few locations receiving sleet. During the day Sunday, the precipitation will transition over to a wintry mix with mainly snow along and north of the I-64 corridor into southern Indiana, with the potential for significant icing over the northern half of Kentucky, mainly along and north of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways. Further south towards the KY/TN border we will see snow, ice and even a transition over to rain for a time, especially along the KY/TN border.

The attached map shows our updated thoughts as of this morning. Please keep in mind that as we get more data, and start to iron out the finer details, like snow and ice amounts, this forecast will likely start to change. If the current forecast trends continue, a Winter Storm Watch will likely be issued by Friday with the possibility of a conference call Friday afternoon.

Our next update will be later this afternoon (Thursday 1-2). If there are any questions, please do not hesitate to contact our office.

Sincerely,

NWS Louisville, KY

 

 

 

 

Weather Channel forecast this morning says 10 inches or more for Cincinnati Sunday/Monday.

26 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Weather Channel forecast this morning says 10 inches or more for Cincinnati Sunday/Monday.

Yup, it doesn't seem likely that the kids will be back in school on Monday and maybe not on Tuesday either. 

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

Weather Channel forecast this morning says 10 inches or more for Cincinnati Sunday/Monday.

Did they also add maybe.35 inches of freezing rain accumulation? I wouldn't predict the amounts just yet. More freezing rain will bring down the snow fall totals. Things are changing from the forecast yesterday.

The NWS-Louisville office has scheduled a conference call for tomorrow afternoon. I'll report what is said afterwards. Look for winter storm watches to be issued by tomorrow. 

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

Weather Channel forecast this morning says 10 inches or more for Cincinnati Sunday/Monday.

No chance. 

I'm waiting for the 18z GFS run to be released before I post another update. This is a rapidly developing winter system. Most of Kentucky could receive significant accumulations of freezing rain. 

 

 

The 2 pm update from the Weather Prediction Center: