Morning update from NWS-Louisville office.

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Good morning,

Confidence is high that a significant winter storm will impact Kentucky and southern Indiana Sunday and Monday. However, forecast confidence in the details remains lower. For example, uncertainty remains on specific precipitation types and amounts for any one location. Because confidence remains high in an impactful winter storm, a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for southern Indiana and portions of central Kentucky.

Snow is expected to begin early Sunday morning, with precipitation changing over to a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain during the day. Heavy snow and ice will be possible in the Winter Storm Watch area, with southern Indiana the most likely location for heavy snow and north central Kentucky the most likely location for significant ice. Further refinement of precipitation types, amounts, and timing can be expected in subsequent forecast updates as the storm approaches.

 

 

 

These are new maps I'll be using along with the ones I've used before. They go through Sunday (Day 3) and will change as we get closer. The first one shows the overall impact of the winter storm during the day Sunday. The second one shows the chance of ice accumulations of greater that 0.25 of an inch.

 

 

Even though it is still toward the end of the NAM run, this event is sure to make history. I do not like what I am seeing at all, people. The snow does not concern me. It is the buildup of ice. Some people may experience life disturbances that last at least a week, if not longer, if what the NAM is depicting comes to pass. This may be a life-threatening situation, and I was extremely afraid to say it.

IMO, the NAM is a better model for winter events than the GFS. At this time, the NAM is showing a swath of around 1.5" of ice accumulation. The map will show it.

I will post more and probably my first call later this evening. I have to take Mrs. nWo to see a neurosurgeon this afternoon about her neck surgery. 

 

 

 

 

From the conference call this afternoon. There will be another one Saturday afternoon.

 

 

 

Here is the latest from Fox19 in Cincy:

Guessing there will be a lot of schools announcing closures on Sunday evening.

4 hours ago, Tranquility Base said:

Guessing there will be a lot of schools announcing closures on Sunday evening.

Some schools have already started closing. 

https://www.lex18.com/weather/school-closings-delays

We have another system that could produce more snow accumulations by the end of next week. 

Things have been going hot and heavy since 3 am this morning. I'm issuing a BGP Winter Severe Weather Alert Day. It goes through Monday evening. 

Attention from Bluegrass 911 Communications:

With the potential for inclement weather. Here are just a few tips to remember:

If your vehicle slides off the roadway and you only need a tow, please contact a tow company, of your choice. When officers become inundated with multiple vehicle off the roadway, it becomes impossible to respond to every call of this sort.

If your power goes out, please call your utility provider or check their website. We assure you, they will already know the power is out and are working to restore it.

If you are on oxygen, have backup tanks on hand. If you run out, our EMS Services can only transport you to a local hospital but cannot bring you an oxygen tank. Please have extras so our hospitals and EMS workers don’t become overwhelmed.

Check on your elderly neighbors and family members NOW! Make sure they have ample food and medication.

If you locate a downed power line or tree, please call our non-emergency number 859-371-1234

As always, we understand that situations like this cause a lot of stress and anxiety in our citizens. Please call 911 for any life or death situations. Stay safe, be prepared.

3 minutes ago, Kentucky Windage said:

Looks like I need to go get beers tonight then?

What kind of beer?  And tonight will be too late, it is after midnight. 

I'm back up wide awake. The pastor and my church and another church have contacted me about the weather and canceling Sunday service. 

The NWS-Louisville had sent me an email about the WSSI, winter storm severity index. The Louisville area is now under the highest level of 5 Extreme Impact. A level 4 Major Impact is along I-64 to Lexington. There is also a major impact area in northern Kentucky around Georgetown and points north.

 

2 minutes ago, nWo said:

I'm back up wide awake. The pastor and my church and another church have contacted my about the weather and canceling Sunday service. 

The NWS-Louisville had sent me an email about the WSSI, winter storm severity index. The Louisville area is now under the highest level of 5 Extreme Impact. A level 4 Major Impact is along I-64 to Lexington. There is also a major impact area in northern Kentucky around Georgetown and points north.

I think we should all exercise extreme caution.  There is no sense in going out unless you absolutely have to go out. 

2 minutes ago, theguru said:

I think we should all exercise extreme caution.  There is no sense in going out unless you absolutely have to go out. 

That was what the severe weather director at the NWS-Louisville office said. You should   get what you needed done on Saturday; don't go out on Sunday.

31 minutes ago, theguru said:

What kind of beer?  And tonight will be too late, it is after midnight. 

Yuengling & and some Miller Lite as an insurance policy in case I'm told not to come to work on Monday. I made it in time. I was worried about the no alcohol sales until noon on Sundays