14 minutes ago, nWo said:

The 2 pm update from the Weather Prediction Center:

Just following your posts, it appears to be tracking on a more northerly path, right?

Just now, No Hiding Here....BC 21 said:

Just following your posts, it appears to be tracking on a more northerly path, right?

For now, as I mentioned before, the GFS does this. When it first shows a storm system, it usually has it further south than the actual path. Things could still change in either direction by Sunday.

Thursday evening update:

This update demonstrates why I think it is challenging to forecast the amount of snowfall a few days before a system is expected to affect a particular location. The majority of the potential significant snowfall north of I-64 is now depicted by the GFS. Light snow accumulations are possible south of that I-64. Additionally, it appears that areas north of the Kentucky River experience the largest amounts of freezing rain accumulations.

Right now, it seems that the wintry precipitation will move into western Kentucky at approximately 5 a.m. on Sunday. By noon, a combination of rain, freezing rain, and snow will have spread throughout Kentucky. Late on Sunday night, it might change to all rain for people south of I-64 before returning to all snow during the day on Monday. Kentucky should be free of snow by early Tuesday.

Don't take the totals as a definitive forecast. A shift in the track either further north or in the opposite directions will change everything. No matter where the freezing rain accumulations fall, it will be a significant disruption in travel and possible wider spread power outages.

 

 

 

 

 

That's a lot of freezing rain in NKY. Hoping it stays as mostly snow instead, even if that means 10+ inches of snow. 

7 minutes ago, sportsfan41 said:

That's a lot of freezing rain in NKY. Hoping it stays as mostly snow instead, even if that means 10+ inches of snow. 

Right, I would rather have "big" snow vs. any measurable amount of freezing rain.

One thing to remember is that those around the rain/snow who get snow will get that wet, heavy snow.

4 minutes ago, nWo said:

One thing to remember is that those around the rain/snow who get snow will get that wet, heavy snow.

The you better shovel it quick snow.

23 minutes ago, nWo said:

One thing to remember is that those around the rain/snow who get snow will get that wet, heavy snow.

You think anyone, even north of the Ohio river gets powdery snow out of this setup?

19 minutes ago, theguru said:

The you better shovel it quick snow.

Or the snowball broke his nose kind of snow. 

Just now, sportsfan41 said:

Or the snowball broke his nose kind of snow. 

For sure, ice balls!

4 minutes ago, sportsfan41 said:

You think anyone, even north of the Ohio river gets powdery snow out of this setup?

The farther north you go the colder the air. Arctic air is dry so the snow will be more of a powdery type.

1 minute ago, nWo said:

The farther north you go the colder the air. Arctic air is dry so the snow will be more of a powdery type.

You think the models will ever get a good read on where this ice/sleet snow line is going to end up or will it just be a toss up until it happens Sunday?

1 minute ago, sportsfan41 said:

You think the models will ever get a good read on where this ice/sleet snow line is going to end up or will it just be a toss up until it happens Sunday?

Should start getting a read tomorrow. The time period will come in range of the NAM.

1 minute ago, sportsfan41 said:

You think the models will ever get a good read on where this ice/sleet snow line is going to end up or will it just be a toss up until it happens Sunday?

My guess is toss up. I'm expecting anywhere from 0-36 inches of snow with some ice and rain mixed in. I've got plenty of food and lots of bourbon and plan on dipping into my supply whether it snows or now. Sun-Tues is my weekend anyway, so I'm not really concerned one way or the other.

This is what the 06z GFS is showing this morning. It's showing a track a little further south than yesterday. I plan on making my first call this evening. This is through Monday night. The following maps are just a snap shot in time, and the totals will probably change again. The concerning thing is the icing accumulations.