Winter Weather Outlook (January 2025 Super Storm)

[nWo]

I have been keeping an eye out for a potential winter weather event that could begin during the first week of January. The weather pattern is about to shift, and there will be a greater likelihood of snow accumulation. I noticed a potential system that would impact Kentucky last week. There were many options, including when the system could be developed for Kentucky. That is the reason I have not posted anything yet. On a Sunday or Monday, the storm is expected to approach Kentucky, according to the GFS and European models.

It is predicted that by Sunday night, an upper-level low will pass over Iowa. It is expected to pass north of Kentucky and travel eastward. This trajectory will draw warm Gulf moisture into Kentucky. This will hold down the possible snow accumulations, but the bad side of it means a chance at some accumulation of freezing rain. I will be monitoring this situation and posting updates as we get closer. 

 

Remember, don't take the accumulation maps as an official forecast. It is impossible to predict accumulation this far out. I just wanted to show what I'm seeing in the modeling data. One other reason is schools will be returning next week. 

 

 

[theguru]

@nWo I came across this "map" and got concerned.  I am glad you are monitoring it for us.

[nWo]

3 minutes ago, theguru said:

@nWo I came across this "map" and got concerned.  I am glad you are monitoring it for us.

That was what the models were showing last week. This peaked my curiosity.

[nWo]

This is what the Climate Prediction Center is showing. We'll have a second shot at snow by the end of the week of the 10th.

[nWo]

For now, this is the second shot of snow for next week.

 

 

[nWo]

@theguru This is what the GFS was showing this past Friday.

 

[theguru]

1 minute ago, nWo said:

@theguru This is what the GFS was showing this past Friday.

 

Ouch!!

[Jumper_Dad]

Father-in-law having open heart surgery the 9th in Lexington, we'll be watching this closely. 

[nWo]

8 hours ago, Jumper_Dad said:

Father-in-law having open heart surgery the 9th in Lexington, we'll be watching this closely. 

Look for temperatures to be around 5° and the wind chill -5°.

[No Hiding Here....BC 21]

17 hours ago, theguru said:

Ouch!!

If Greater Cincinnati gets that amount it'll be shut down for a while.  LOL

[Jumper_Dad]

8 hours ago, nWo said:

Look for temperatures to be around 5° and the wind chill -5°.

Brrrrrr!

[nWo]

Tuesday evening update:

A snowstorm is expected to materialize on Sunday, according to the modeling data. This storm is currently farther south than it was this morning, according to the GFS. The low is currently predicted to pass across the Texas/Oklahoma region. After that, it will head east and pass south of Kentucky. It will begin to gain strength as it approaches Kentucky. It is now predicted that Tennessee will see potentially freezing rain. After that, it is predicted that the low-pressure system will travel off the east coast. if it turns north and heads up the east coast, which could bring more snow to us.

On Sunday night, the wintry precipitation may spread to western Kentucky. Before it tapers off early Tuesday, Monday's snowfall may be heavy at points during the day. The majority of the potential heavy accumulation will be south of I-64 at the time of this report. Keep in mind that the start of this winter storm is still six days away. Between now and then, everything will change. Furthermore, the snowfall totals I have displayed should not be interpreted as a definitive forecast. This is merely informational in nature.

 

 

 

[rjs4470]

Completely expect this to be another big nothing burger for Northern KY. It just simply doesn't snow here anymore. 60-70 miles north of us get big snowstorms, south of us get snow storms, but NKY gets about as much snow as Florida.

 

 

[No Hiding Here....BC 21]

27 minutes ago, rjs4470 said:

Completely expect this to be another big nothing burger for Northern KY. It just simply doesn't snow here anymore. 60-70 miles north of us get big snowstorms, south of us get snow storms, but NKY gets about as much snow as Florida.

 

 

Which is really a good thing, since we have to deal with the drivers North of the river.  LOL

[nWo]

3 hours ago, rjs4470 said:

Completely expect this to be another big nothing burger for Northern KY. It just simply doesn't snow here anymore. 60-70 miles north of us get big snowstorms, south of us get snow storms, but NKY gets about as much snow as Florida.

 

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the main snow field move northward. The GFS has a bias of showing storms taking a southerly track and moving it northward as we get closer. It had the main snow coming straight through northern Kentucky late Sunday into Monday. So there is no certainty where the heaviest snow will fall this far away from the event.