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System to Approach Kentucky this weekend


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The weather pattern for the near future appears to show several systems that could bring some snow to Kentucky. The timing and strength of each system are still up in the air. So far the GFS and Euro are showing this. I will concentrate on the first one this weekend. Then the next one is forecast to approach Kentucky Monday. The first map is the 500 mb Height Anomaly. Red is warmer air and blue is showing cooler air. Blue is associated with a low-pressure system. The map shows the starting out as a little white circle just north of the Canadian Border then as it moves towards Kentucky it strengthens. Keep an eye on the same area after the first one moves through Kentucky. You can see the next system forming and moving in the same direction. This should be the one that enters Kentucky on Monday.

 

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The next map shows the low-pressure system that is at the Canadian border then it will move towards Kentucky. As it moves in southeasterly direction snow will break out in front of the low. 

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It's too early to talk about snow accumulations. This pattern looks to be locked in for the near future. I will post an update tomorrow.

 

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Tuesday evening update:

 

Data tonight is showing the low-pressure system that will affect the weather in Kentucky for this weekend is strengthening. The jet stream will take the to just south of Kentucky then move it eastward through Tennessee before it takes it northeastward east of Kentucky. The following is the 300 mb Height, Wind chart. You can see the low-pressure system go just south of Kentucky.

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The 500 mb Height Anomaly map shows as the low is just south of Kentucky it strengthens even more. That is depicted by the white color in the center.

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Just before the low start its turn to the east it will draw moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico. The Precipitable Water Chart shows the moisture moving into Kentucky. The air will be cold enough to turn most of what falls into the snow. There could be some freezing rain also as warm air tries to move in along with the Gulf moisture.

 

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Let me say this before I post what the GFS is showing for possible snow and freezing rain accumulations for this weekend. This is not an official call for any snow or freezing rain accumulations. I just wanted to show what the model is showing. These totals will change as we get closer to the possible event.

 

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I will post another update tomorrow. Things will more than likely change as they normally do.  I will post what other models are showing tomorrow because this weekend will be in the range of most of them. 

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Just a quick update this morning. The northern movement of the storm track I was talking about last evening is showing up on this mornings run. I want to see a couple more runs before I post my next update later this evening.

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1 hour ago, nWo said:

Just a quick update this morning. The northern movement of the storm track I was talking about last evening is showing up on this mornings run. I want to see a couple more runs before I post my next update later this evening.

I really enjoy your threads and you do a great service getting ahead of these weather events. I am curious how far out you look to get ahead of the weather. What is your reliability timeline? For example, at a week out, how confident are you with a forecast?

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4 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

I really enjoy your threads and you do a great service getting ahead of these weather events. I am curious how far out you look to get ahead of the weather. What is your reliability timeline? For example, at a week out, how confident are you with a forecast?

Not nWo obviously, but I'll share how I approach things...

Anything more than 3-4 days out I am extremely cautious putting a lot of stock into. Now, you can certainly get an idea of what a storm system is going to do, where it's going to go, etc, but it can change so much in as little as 24-48 hours that putting all your eggs in the basket beyond 3-4 days is risky. 

Winter weather makes it even more complicated. I don't really start paying attention until about 48 hours from the event. Forecasting winter weather is incredibly difficult, because literally one or two degrees makes all the difference. 

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59 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

I really enjoy your threads and you do a great service getting ahead of these weather events. I am curious how far out you look to get ahead of the weather. What is your reliability timeline? For example, at a week out, how confident are you with a forecast?

Thanks you for the compliments. Sometimes I use the Climate Forecast Model that looks a month ahead. If I see something on it that peaks my curiosity I keep an eye on it till it gets into the range of the GFS or Euro. That's about two weeks out. I really start looking hard at a forecast about a week ahead of the period. Then about 5 days out I'll start really looking over the data. A reliable forecast is about 3-5 days before the weather event. 

6 minutes ago, Kentucky Windage said:

Judging from the looks of that prediction map, if it holds true...poor ole western Kentucky can't get a break from mother nature this season. 

 I was talking with my daughter last night about this weekend's possible weather. She joked that she's ready to move away from Bowling Green first tornadoes now snow!. 😀

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38 minutes ago, nWo said:

Thanks you for the compliments. Sometimes I use the Climate Forecast Model that looks a month ahead. If I see something on it that peaks my curiosity I keep an eye on it till it gets into the range of the GFS or Euro. That's about two weeks out. I really start looking hard at a forecast about a week ahead of the period. Then about 5 days out I'll start really looking over the data. A reliable forecast is about 3-5 days before the weather event. 

 I was talking with my daughter last night about this weekend's possible weather. She joked that she's ready to move away from Bowling Green first tornadoes now snow!. 😀

Which is funny after so many years of folks who live their saying there was a dome over the city. 

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55 minutes ago, sportsfan41 said:

Which is funny after so many years of folks who live their saying there was a dome over the city. 

Felt that way for years and years.  I guess this is just one of the many new joys this decade has brought us.

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I getting ready to go back to work after my lunch break so this will be quick. I have to shake my head at what I'm seeing so far. I think what is happening is that we are having a phasing of two systems. The one this weekend and the one I was talking about for Monday. The phased system will move to just south of Kentucky as it does it is forecast to rapidly intensify. I hope things change but that west of I-65 and along the Kentucky/Tennessee border, If they are so inclined, should be preparing for possible power outages and not being able to travel for a couple of days. After this system passes through Kentucky goes up towards the east goes it is forecast to become a Bomb Cyclone! In other words a winter hurricane with winds gusts of around 85 mph! We'll probably see wind gusts here in Kentucky around the 20-30 mph range. This along with the possible ice accumulations in southern Kentucky will cause some power outages.

Please remember the exact track of this system is still in question so things will probalby change some as we get closer.

I'll post a more detailed update later this evening.

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I forgot to add about the bomb cyclone there will be heavy snow along with the hurricane force winds.

 

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Just now, PP1 said:

 

Bengals play Saturday at 4:30. Do you foresee any issues as far as during the game?

Should be ok because I think the phasing is slowing the system down. I would make sure to dress warm look for wind chills in the teens. Wind gusts of around 18 mph.

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6 hours ago, nWo said:

Just a quick update this morning. The northern movement of the storm track I was talking about last evening is showing up on this mornings run. I want to see a couple more runs before I post my next update later this evening.

I just had a chance to see some of the models you were referring to trending north and apparently now west.  Looks like the whole state could get a good amount of snow if that trend were to continue. 

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