Wednesday evening update.

Concern and confidence are growing that a major winter storm will hit Kentucky this weekend. The jury is still out on the exact track and how much snow we will see. This afternoon run of the GFS has moved the system back towards the south somewhat. It is also showing the amount of possible freezing rain that has come down but the possible snow accumulations have gone up. Let me caution everyone these numbers are not set in stone yet. I should be able to make my first call for snow tomorrow evening. Ok now let's look at some data. First is the GFS.

I want to show the 500 mb Height, Relative Vorticity map. The reason is it shows the low-pressure system starting to gain strength a little earlier. Pay attention to the dark purples and a little bit of light blue. It shows the lift in the atmosphere that will cause the possible heavy snow to fall. The snow axis will be mainly to the left of the center of the low. Also notice that now it is covering almost the entire state. The GFS also has the snow starting earlier and lasting longer.

 

Look at the radar simulation for the period from 1 am/12 am central EST to 7 am/6 central EST Monday. You can see the dark blues indicating heavy snow coincides with the 500 mb map.

 

 

Now for the EURO. This run is from this morning so take it with a grain of salt.  It is coming in weaker and showing the track further south than the GFS. Also, it is not showing the heavy snow until the system gets east of I-75. One other thing if this holds those along the Ohio River will not see much if any snow.

 

 

 

Now for possible accumulations. These are not official forecast totals. I just wanted to show what the models are showing at this time.

 

The GFS

 

The Euro

 

I should be able to make my first call tomorrow evening. I would suggest that everyone should be preparing for a major storm to hit Kentucky this weekend. 

My concern this morning is that the models are showing more warm air trying to move in that is deep enough to change the snow falling into freezing rain. They weren't showing that last night. I'm keeping an eye on it and will post other updates through out the day.