On 3/28/2022 at 9:30 AM, ChickenWyngz said:

 

The Reds will make a run at a playoff spot. The more I look at the things they're doing the more it makes sense. There was zero indication Wade Miley can repeat what he did. If Sonny Gray is what he was last year then you're better seeing what the young guys can do. 

They got rid of a couple of guys that were fan favorites, but in turn got rid of a major liability that Bell played every day and had in the middle of the lineup (Suarez). Not signing Castellano's is the biggest question mark, but if you look at his 2020 vs his 2021, which guy are you going to get? Heck of a liability to lock into that for 5 years. 

They've put a lot of trust into Moose and Senzel staying healthy, and I get that is a huge risk, but if they do stay healthy then they will chase a playoff spot and be relevant. They've put together a solid bullpen and in today's game the bullpen means more than starting pitching in most cases. You still have your Sherzer's, etc, that go 7 every time out, but that isn't what today's game is. He isn't as polished defensively as Barnhart, but Stephenson getting majority of the at-bats at catcher improves the lineup. They've picked up a few guys that have a track record of decent OBP. 

I'm not sold to the point of going to Vegas in favor of the Reds, but I am willing to let people know that if you get past the initial gut punch and look below the surface, things may not be as awful as we believe. So many people are unhappy that they lost/traded the same hitters that let us down when the bullpen pulled it together down the stretch last year. 

Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk. 

This roster is a 70-75 win team.  

This thread seems to be the most appropriate place for this post. I want to look at this roster and the woeful start to the season. 

I have been in a fantasy baseball league that is NL only for over 20 years. I have a resource I use that is a fantastic analytics resource. It is great at projecting what to expect from players based on their own individual metrics. I looked at the Reds roster to start the year to see how it was projected. There are 15 teams in the NL and there are 9 starting offensive players on each team with the DH now in effect. That makes the cut line on a starting player at 135 (9 starting players x 15 teams). Here is how the Reds players were projected:

16 ... India

46 ... Votto

62 ... Barrero

71 ... Stephenson

75 ... Naquin

85  ... Pham 

95 ... Moran

100 ... Farmer

105 ... Fraley

129 ... Senzel

134 ... Moustakas

178 ... Schrock

181 ... Aquino

Honestly, that roster is not the worst in the NL. It probably ranks around #10. But here is the problem and why this team has started so badly. Four of the top five players have been injured and the healthy one (Votto) is off to another slow start. Player #6 (Pham) also had a terrible start to the year. Eight of the 13 players listed have missed games. The players on the field these first couple weeks are mostly reserve/role players and AAA players. Add in the schedule being so front loaded with good teams, a west coast trip and 2 of the teams' best starters also being out, it is easy to see the reason for the bad start. No excuses. Just facts. 

I think this team will be better if/when it gets healthy. A key decision is going to be getting Barrero and Farmer on the field together. 

 

On 3/28/2022 at 9:30 AM, ChickenWyngz said:

 

The Reds will make a run at a playoff spot. The more I look at the things they're doing the more it makes sense. There was zero indication Wade Miley can repeat what he did. If Sonny Gray is what he was last year then you're better seeing what the young guys can do. 

They got rid of a couple of guys that were fan favorites, but in turn got rid of a major liability that Bell played every day and had in the middle of the lineup (Suarez). Not signing Castellano's is the biggest question mark, but if you look at his 2020 vs his 2021, which guy are you going to get? Heck of a liability to lock into that for 5 years. 

They've put a lot of trust into Moose and Senzel staying healthy, and I get that is a huge risk, but if they do stay healthy then they will chase a playoff spot and be relevant. They've put together a solid bullpen and in today's game the bullpen means more than starting pitching in most cases. You still have your Sherzer's, etc, that go 7 every time out, but that isn't what today's game is. He isn't as polished defensively as Barnhart, but Stephenson getting majority of the at-bats at catcher improves the lineup. They've picked up a few guys that have a track record of decent OBP. 

I'm not sold to the point of going to Vegas in favor of the Reds, but I am willing to let people know that if you get past the initial gut punch and look below the surface, things may not be as awful as we believe. So many people are unhappy that they lost/traded the same hitters that let us down when the bullpen pulled it together down the stretch last year. 

Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk. 

This optimism aged poorly lol