Bowling Green at South Warren Predictions/Updates (5A Playoffs)

[Purple88]

Well this is a Big One!  I mean no offense to Greenwood and Christian County, but after the 10-7 South Warren win at Bowling Green all the way back on October 2nd we all knew this game was coming.

South Warren has played well this season and is a Top 5 Team in 5A.  They have a strong defense that  has only given up 34 points thru 6 games.  They have their star Safety Jantzen Dunn back from injury and should be ready to go.  On offense the Spartans are led by JR QB Caden Veltcamp and JR RB Kobi Martin behind a very good OLine.

Bowling Green has also played well this season and is also a Top 5A squad.  They have 2 losses on the year.  One to South and one at Top and Nationally ranked Trinity.  The Purples are also led by a stout defense that has given up 35 points outside of the Trinity game.  SR Rece Jones is the leader and he's done a great job this season.  On offense SR QB Conner Cooper has improved every game IMO.  He didn't throw a pick against Trinity and he likely played his best game last week vs Greenwood.  UK bound Jordan Dingle has also played really well behind a very good Senior laden OLine.

South Warren was stronger in the first matchup.  Bowling Green has played a much better schedule, as evidenced by a higher RPI rating even though they have 2 losses.  Does any of this matter?  I say no because this is a winner take all rivalry game where each team can win.  This will be one of the best games in the state this week.  It's too bad in 2020 that most won't be able to go to the game.  I'm hopeful South Warren will divide the tickets evenly as BG did the first game.

Im calling this game a toss up.  What say you!

[Tigerpride94]

I think BG after losing in close one will get it done this time. I’ll say BG by 3.

[Brown]

Wow flip a coin here.  2 great teams.  I think BG has grown enough from the first game to win this game.  Their offense has become a little more diverse and I believe it will get them over the top.  A little higher scoring compared to first game.

 

Purples 21-13

[LongTimeReader]

Wouldn't surprise me if this matchup ends up like last years playoff matchup where it was a crazy finish and came down to the final drive. I'm not sure who I'm going to pick yet, but I do know it'll be another good game between two schools that just don't like each other. 

[Tkinslow]

South Warren 13-3.

[Killowatt59]

Well here we are. The main event is upon us. Great write-up as always Purple88.

I don't see BG being able to pull this one out. I don't believe they have enough offense to be able to beat South Warren. The Purples didn't look good against Greenwood at all and you don't want to be limping into the game against South Warren.

BG's defense is really good and it played out of its mind during the first matchup and BG couldn't pull it out.

If Bowling Green is going to be able to win here is what must be done (in no particular order):

1. Win the turnover battle

2. Change the play calling. The play calling during the first game was the worst I've seen. I don't think they could have came up with a worse game plan. 

3. SPEED BURST! Have called plays for Conner Cooper to run the ball outside. They have to run outside with someone fast enough get around the edge and outside. I think Cooper and Burwash are the two that could do that. Some QB runs outside and maybe even some option plays would be great. Bunton isn't quick enough off the ball to make the edge.

4. ATTACK DOWN THE FIELD! BG must be able to throw the ball over the bulk of the South Warren defense to get in the open field. So passes of 15 yards or better. SW is just a brick wall 10 yards in to the line of scrimmage. Can Cooper throw accurate passes down the field under duress?  I have my doubts. BG's O-line has to find away to protect Cooper which I don't know if they can do against the South Warren Defense.

5. WHERE'S DINGLE? Get Dingle the Ball!  I don't care if they are doubling him. If Dingle is as good as he is supposed to be, he's got to find away to make plays. He should have the size advantage over anyone else on the field.  FIND HIM! Give him some chances to makes plays. I love him playing some defense too though.

6. BUNTON THE BEAST! If the Purples can get some outside runs and some passes down the field, then that should open things up for Bunton. Bunton is a beast, but just running between the tackles or the short side of the field every time isn't going to be enough. They've got the help him out and spread the defense out some otherwise Bunton will just be running into a wall every time.

7. GET OFF THE FIELD! BG'sdefense has got to get off the field and no whole quarter drives by South. South Warren got way too much on first downs during the first meeting. The Purples have got to get them in second and third and long. Second and short will kill them.

With all that said I don't believe BG has enough to win and what I saw against Greenwood worries me even more. I believe South Warren controls the game and it will feel like a much bigger loss because of BG's offensive struggle.

 

SOUTH WARREN 21   BOWLING GREEN 7

 

[Purplepride]

2 hours ago, Killowatt59 said:

Well here we are. The main event is upon us. Great write-up as always Purple88.

I don't see BG being able to pull this one out. I don't believe they have enough offense to be able to beat South Warren. The Purples didn't look good against Greenwood at all and you don't want to be limping into the game against South Warren.

BG's defense is really good and it played out of its mind during the first matchup and BG couldn't pull it out.

If Bowling Green is going to be able to win here is what must be done (in no particular order):

1. Win the turnover battle

2. Change the play calling. The play calling during the first game was the worst I've seen. I don't think they could have came up with a worse game plan. 

3. SPEED BURST! Have called plays for Conner Cooper to run the ball outside. They have to run outside with someone fast enough get around the edge and outside. I think Cooper and Burwash are the two that could do that. Some QB runs outside and maybe even some option plays would be great. Bunton isn't quick enough off the ball to make the edge.

4. ATTACK DOWN THE FIELD! BG must be able to throw the ball over the bulk of the South Warren defense to get in the open field. So passes of 15 yards or better. SW is just a brick wall 10 yards in to the line of scrimmage. Can Cooper throw accurate passes down the field under duress?  I have my doubts. BG's O-line has to find away to protect Cooper which I don't know if they can do against the South Warren Defense.

5. WHERE'S DINGLE? Get Dingle the Ball!  I don't care if they are doubling him. If Dingle is as good as he is supposed to be, he's got to find away to make plays. He should have the size advantage over anyone else on the field.  FIND HIM! Give him some chances to makes plays. I love him playing some defense too though.

6. BUNTON THE BEAST! If the Purples can get some outside runs and some passes down the field, then that should open things up for Bunton. Bunton is a beast, but just running between the tackles or the short side of the field every time isn't going to be enough. They've got the help him out and spread the defense out some otherwise Bunton will just be running into a wall every time.

7. GET OFF THE FIELD! BG'sdefense has got to get off the field and no whole quarter drives by South. South Warren got way too much on first downs during the first meeting. The Purples have got to get them in second and third and long. Second and short will kill them.

With all that said I don't believe BG has enough to win and what I saw against Greenwood worries me even more. I believe South Warren controls the game and it will feel like a much bigger loss because of BG's offensive struggle.

 

SOUTH WARREN 21   BOWLING GREEN 7

 

Absolutely.. here we are! Love the detailed write up! Thank you for coming to the Greenwood game. I’m unsure what AWFUL  game you watched that you consider BG “limping” into the SW game?!?! Both of theirs scores seem to mirror one another last Friday. 
*Also, BG finally dealt with Covid.. they had 15+ players quarantined for 14 days and had 1 day of practice right before the Greenwood game. From my understanding it was the ENTIRE O-LINE, some D-LINE, and skill players. That’s alot of downtime on those big boys!!! 
*The first time they played one another this year they just lost their #1 receiver, Wilson, and Cooper was playing with a fractured wrist. I’m pretty sure personnel on offense has changed significantly since their last meeting. 
*Play calling has gotten better IMO! That first game was crappy.. everyone was trying to adjust to players being swapped around. You can’t really judge a team against a powerhouse like Trinity.. they are in a league of their own. However, Cooper never threw a pic or got sacked!! He looked good against GW. He had 300 yards and 4 TD’s. Could’ve had over 400 yards and 6-7 TD’s.. but there were several easy, dropped passes. 
*Also, BG’s schedule is definitely more challenging. They played all 6A schools and then their district games. However, SW has their district games and then 3A and 4A schools. I’m not really sure how you can compare the teams.. especially when they first played on such an injured list, including SW without Dunn!

* The doubts of accurate passes and Bunton’s running game just doesn’t quite fit the stats at this point.  KHSAA may not add the playoff game but I believe Veltkamp and Cooper both have 2 INT’s and look at the teams Cooper faced! 
 

I think  it’ll be a really good game of teams with talented players.  BG did struggle offensively against Trinity.. and so would 1500 other HS teams in KY!!
They lost to SW by 3  the first time. It was a 4th quarter game! So with all of the issues that BG had... what was all of SW’s issues on why they only beat BG by 3?? 

 

[Spartandad]

It is extremely hard to truly evaluate any team based upon this season's limited play. South has played only 6 total games. The only competition that they've had all year long was against Bowling Green. BG has played a much tougher schedule than South for sure. I think the real advantage that this has is that BG's starters have been exposed to a full 4 quarters of play much more often than South. During the first game, you could see that South's defense was worn out by the 4th quarter. They started fading significantly toward the end. 

If you compare similar match ups (Greenwood and Christian), then BG has outperformed South. To be honest, I think that the Purples have a slightly more explosive offense overall. However, South has some depth that BG might have serious problems defending. Over the 6 games that South has played, they've had 8 different receivers and 5 different rushers score touchdowns. It's impossible to try to shut down all the options available. There might not be a lot of stars, but there are loads of solid players. Now that Dunn is back, the Spartan offense looks tremendously different than what BG saw the first game. Expect to see him rushing and receiving. It will be hard for anyone to cover him.

BG's biggest opportunity is with different play calling. During the first game, they tried to run up the middle and didn't throw to Dingle enough. South's defense is probably the best in the state defending against the run. They are only slightly above average defending the pass though, in my opinion. Let's compare each defense's performance in the regular season against Greenwood. South allowed -24 yards rushing and 147 yards passing. BG allowed 50 yards rushing and 38 yards passing. I know this isn't necessarily a true picture since JV probably played 2 quarters for each team. Nevertheless, I think this is a good representation of the Spartan defense. The most important fact is that you are much more likely to have success passing against South rather than running.

South has been preparing for Bowling Green since Oct 24, the day after their last regular season matchup. I think that you'll see them come into the game with a completely different game plan as the first meeting. At the same time, I think BG knows that they have to change their play calling as well. This definitely is not going to be the same defensive battle that we saw in early October. Both teams are going to score before halftime. 

I think homefield advantage and Jantzen Dunn will push South to victory.

South Warren 21- Bowling Green 17

 

 

 

 

 

[Purplepride]

Why in the world would South Warren only give BG fans 300 tickets and they keep 800??? That definitely seems kinda crappy. I guess you can do what you want to with home field advantage.. but geez! BG parents said they didn’t mind stating those numbers in an email either. That’s crazy!! 

[Killowatt59]

18 minutes ago, Purplepride said:

Why in the world would South Warren only give BG fans 300 tickets and they keep 800??? That definitely seems kinda crappy. I guess you can do what you want to with home field advantage.. but geez! BG parents said they didn’t mind stating those numbers in an email either. That’s crazy!! 

So are you telling me there were only 1,100 total sold?

As much as I want to bash South Warren and there are plenty of reasons to do so this actually seems fair to me. Home team should give the bulk of the tickets to own fans.

[Purplepride]

20 minutes ago, Killowatt59 said:

So are you telling me there were only 1,100 total sold?

As much as I want to bash South Warren and there are plenty of reasons to do so this actually seems fair to me. Home team should give the bulk of the tickets to own fans.

An email sent out to parents stated that there wouldn’t be cheerleaders and they weren’t allowing anyone to stand around the track either. They also listed the breakdown of tickets as

SW: 800

BG: 300

So Im assuming that’s correct, 1,100. Unless, something has changed since Monday.  I agree that Home team should have a larger amount.. but close to 75% of the total tickets seems a tad selfish. Maybe if they didn’t sell the entire 800 they will pass some over.. but to begin that way is a little comical. 

[Spartandad]

This isn't any different than how ticket purchases have worked all season long. The home team gets first dibs on a greater percentage of tickets. When South played at BG, tickets were limited to 2 per player, until sales were opened to the public. Tickets for this game went on sale to the public today and are still available. It has not sold out. Word is that BG has purchased just as many tickets as South fans.

[Killowatt59]

35 minutes ago, Purplepride said:

An email sent out to parents stated that there wouldn’t be cheerleaders and they weren’t allowing anyone to stand around the track either. They also listed the breakdown of tickets as

SW: 800

BG: 300

So Im assuming that’s correct, 1,100. Unless, something has changed since Monday.  I agree that Home team should have a larger amount.. but close to 75% of the total tickets seems a tad selfish. Maybe if they didn’t sell the entire 800 they will pass some over.. but to begin that way is a little comical. 

Well as long as their cheerleaders won't be there and their fans won't be standing around the track I have no problem with that. 

And I think it's fine for the tickets to be broken down that way.

 

I know BG put something out on a Twitter today that they still had tickets for sale.

As much as I would love to bash South Warren as they deserve it for a lot of other reasons, I don't see any thing wrong here IMO. 

[DevilMayCare]

On 11/23/2020 at 9:30 PM, Killowatt59 said:

5. WHERE'S DINGLE? Get Dingle the Ball!  I don't care if they are doubling him. If Dingle is as good as he is supposed to be, he's got to find away to make plays. He should have the size advantage over anyone else on the field.  FIND HIM! Give him some chances to makes plays. I love him playing some defense too though.

He should be one of the most valuable red zone weapons in the state. Obviously you have to get there first, but Dingle's length and big body should give the Purples a matchup advantage inside the 20. He's a future SEC tight end, so throw it up and let him high point the ball.

Again though, you have to get there first. Red zone opportunities could be at a premium.

[Purplepride]

Which field general will lead their team to the WIN tonight? Which coaching staff is better prepared? Will we see Seniority shine tonight?? Excited for the battle tonight! Great football weather!!