BTW my picks for the AA state championship.

 

My heart says

Belfry vs Owensboro Catholic (Belfry winning)

 

My head says

Russell vs Mercer Co.(Mercer winning)

 

My gut says

Middlesboro vs Trigg Co.(Middlesboro winning)

 

Not sure why but something tells me that Middlesboro is a lot better than most "predictions" throughout the state are telling me. Hopefully one of my senses has to be right.

I know this is a bit off of subject, but if Belfry were to win, would they play at Russell? Of course, Russell would have to win first.

 

The winner of the Belfry/Middlesboro game would host the semis.

I'm no genious but the only teams that do advance in the playoffs are the ones who outscore their opponents. When playing against in-state teams, here are how the numbers stack up:

 

Defense (points given up per game)

Belfry- 12.08

Middlesboro- 14

 

Offense (points scored per game)

Belfry- 36.5

Middlesboro- 40.6

 

Average Margin of Victory

Belfry- 24.42

Middlesboro- 26.6

 

Say what you want about Middlesboro's defense being weak or whatever but even though they may give up more points, their average margin of victory was higher than Belfry's. Also, westsider mentioned something about Middlesboro's defense wearing down; if any defense has shown the ability to tire late in the game it has been Belfry's. Middlesboro was tied with abotu 5 minutes to go against both Corbin and Breathitt and was able to hold both of them. In their most recent playoff game against Leslie, their defense held up yet again when they stopped Leslie from converting a 2-point conversion late in the game.

 

Belfry on the other hand has lost 2 of their 3 close games this season. Both losses came in overtime which means that their defense couldn't get it done when the other defense could.

 

If Middlesboro losses, it won't be because their defense is inferior to Belfry, that I know for sure.

 

 

Those numbers don't mean anything...Middlesboro's nondistrict schedule was very weak, except the team that drilled them...Belfry's defense is better, and not by just a little bit IMO...

 

Average Margin of Victory

Belfry- 24.42

Middlesboro- 26.6

 

Say what you want about Middlesboro's defense being weak or whatever but even though they may give up more points, their average margin of victory was higher than Belfry's.

 

Belfry on the other hand has lost 2 of their 3 close games this season. Both losses came in overtime which means that their defense couldn't get it done when the other defense could.

 

Some things that are very misleading about these stats and comments:

1. When comparing schedules there is a huge disparity between Belfry's and Middlesboro's non-district schedule. Belfry has played a substantially harder schedule, thus the margin of points should naturally be less.

 

2. Belfry has not lost 2 of 3 close games. The Pirates by my estimation are actually 2-2 with victories over NewCath and Pikeville and losses to SC and Ashland.

 

3. It is worth noting that Belfry is a pair of missed two point conversions away from being the #1 ranked team in the state.

 

4. "Their defense couldn't get it done when the other could"... not necessarily..Belfry scored on Ashland on their posession.. and if you want to look at the tape of Belfry/SC they scored on the Cards as well :sssh: (just the officials didn't agree)

Those numbers don't mean anything...Middlesboro's nondistrict schedule was very weak, except the team that drilled them...Belfry's defense is better, and not by just a little bit IMO...

6 of Belfry's wins came against teams with losing records. Only 5 of Middlesboro's wins came against losing teams. Middlesboro has one non-district opponent still in the playoffs (Corbin). Belfry has zero.

In response to the underdog issue.

 

I think this game is basically a push. Middlesboro is ranked ahead of Belfry but both teams are highly ranked. The home field advantage for the Pirates make it a dead heat IMO.

I am very worried about Middlesboro's athleticism. Last season the same kids looked pretty good on offense, but the Jackets just had no answer for the big play on behalf of Belfry.

 

I assume Middlesboro's skill guys have gotten even better and arguable Belfry is a step slower than last season.

 

We will see how it all plays out Friday.

 

In the spirit of the recent elections, this one is "too close to call!"

6 of Belfry's wins came against teams with losing records. Only 4 of Middlesboro's wins came against losing teams.

 

Keep in Mind that Belfry has to play one more district foe than Middlesboro.

 

NONDISTRICT SCHEDULE

Belfry-1A Newport Central Catholic,3A Ashland Blazer, 1A Pikeville, 3A Lawrence County

Mboro-4A Knoxville Central, 1A Harlan, 2A Corbin,1A Lynn Camp, 1A Pineville, 1A Lee County

 

Each team had two other solid district opponents... Belfry had Pburg/SC.. Mboro had Breathitt/Leslie.. I see those as being a wash.

 

I will concede that Knoxville Central was the best non-district team either school faced. But after that you can't compare Mboro's schedule to Belfry's... and the one top quality team that they faced in Knoxville Central took them to the woodshed. Corbin is the only other quality team and they finished the year with 5 losses and are only still alive in the playoffs IMO due to their district being the weakest in the state. NEWCATH is also still alive in the playoffs and a serious title contender in 1A.

I think Belfry needs a superior effort from its front 5 to win this game. Sutherland, Burton, Hickman, Steele, Lee, Bowens, etc need to come like they have never come before or IMO Belfry will lose.

 

The front 5 has to win the LOS because Belfry's back 6 is not quite as athletic as Middlesboro's skill guys.

I think Belfry needs a superior effort from its front 5 to win this game. Sutherland, Burton, Hickman, Steele, Lee, Bowens, etc need to come like they have never come before or IMO Belfry will lose.

 

The front 5 has to win the LOS because Belfry's back 6 is not quite as athletic as Middlesboro's skill guys.

You are all over this one! If there is anyplace where Belfry ahs the potential to take control it is up front. I feel fairly confident our offensive line will be able to get the edge against M-boro..but the D-line is the real variable. The quickness of our front seven will definately surprise M-boro IMO..but that doesn't mean a hill of beans if they don't execute and make plays.

6 of Belfry's wins came against teams with losing records. Only 5 of Middlesboro's wins came against losing teams. Middlesboro has one non-district opponent still in the playoffs (Corbin). Belfry has zero.

Not sure it means much, but Belfry has one also, NCC.

If nothing else I think Belfry has an edge in coaching.

 

Haywood was the underdog in 03', went to Middlesboro (then ranked #1) and blanked the Jackets. Middlesboro outgained Belfry in that game. Middlesboro won the "look" test in pregame. But Haywood has his kids believe in assignment football.

 

That 03' team was truly something to watch. IMO that was the year Haywood really came into his own. He had a couple great tailbacks, but more importantly, that team just had that belief.

 

Will we see Belfry join hands, really feel the brotherhood, and sprint together to midfield this Friday night?

Not sure it means much, but Belfry has one also, NCC.

 

That has already been established by orisonspi. Sorry I overlooked them.

You're welcome. :thumb:

If nothing else I think Belfry has an edge in coaching.

 

Haywood was the underdog in 03', went to Middlesboro (then ranked #1) and blanked the Jackets. Middlesboro outgained Belfry in that game. Middlesboro won the "look" test in pregame. But Haywood has his kids believe in assignment football.

 

That 03' team was truly something to watch. IMO that was the year Haywood really came into his own. He had a couple great tailbacks, but more importantly, that team just had that belief.

 

Will we see Belfry join hands, really feel the brotherhood, and spring together to midfield this Friday night?

 

I believe this year's team resembles the 2003 team in attitude only. Granted we are without the studs in the backfield but I believe this team truly believes it's us against the world. Just like in '03, this team is being somewhat overlooked, has great line play and has a QB who seems to have a great deal of "football intelligence". Hopefully this team can bond like the '03 team and find the belief that they found in '03.