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Class 3A Final 4 Prognostication

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After last weeks whitewashing of Belfry, Central seems to be the team to beat in most folks minds, while Boyle Co looks to be a heavy favorite on there side of the bracket.. I'm okay with those teams being the odds on picks, but, I have a hard time seeing either game being much more than a slight favorite..

 

All 4 remaining teams have had stellar years and all 4 have tested themselves against some of the better teams in the state..

 

Corbin @ Central ..... While Central appears to be peaking at the right time, I do wonder how they lost to a Ballard team that ended at 6-6 on the year and were blown out in 5 of those 6 losses.. Not that they lost because Ballard is a 6a school with some talent, but, are they 30-7 better than Central? They also struggled in games against Western and Manual, who are just above average teams this year.. While I see that they're on quite a role right now, if the team that showed up in those 3 games show up Friday night, they could be in a bigger dog fight than most expect... From Corbin's perspective, they have yet to be seriously challenged in the playoffs, which could be a good thing or a bad thing. The good thing is they've been able to rest guys who have had some nagging injuries, so, they should come into this one at full strength. The bad thing is, will they be mentally prepared for a team like Central, who've they've not seen since about mid season. Most folks are saying Corbin hasn't seen a team like this all year with all there speed, however, I'd be hard pressed to believe Central is any more athletic than Alcoa, who's always loaded with D1 and D2 talent.. Mayfield has about as much speed and offensive firepower as anyone in the state and Beechwood team showed a very balanced offense and hard nosed defense, so, this Redhound team has seen comparable talent and should have a very good idea of what lies ahead... I'm not a betting man, but, I do feel like either of these teams are capable of winning this game and even winning it all. I'm giving the edge to Central simply because they're at home and play very well there, but, I do see this as a close one: Central 27 Corbin 21

 

Boyle Co @ E'Town ..... Outside of a heartbreaking last minute loss to crosstown rival Danville, the Rebels of Boyle Co have been nothing short of dominating.. It's hard to find many weaknesses on this team, as they play a very tough, hard-nosed D as well as put up points like a Madden NFL game. If the adage "Defense wins Championships" then I'd be hard pressed to pick anyone else, especially since they have such a good offense to boot... On the other side of the ball, the Rebels need to be on there A game if they expect to roll into E'Town and come away with a win. This team lost a close early season game to CAL, which is no disgrace and otherwise have been about as solid as solid can be.. While PTilghman and Caldwell aren't world beaters, they aren't cupcakes either and E'Town ran through them without breaking a sweat. They also dominated a solid F.Simpson team that's still alive in the 4a playoffs.. So, I could also this game going either way.. While I do feel Boyle Co should be favored, I like the home field advantage and the way E'Town's been playing.. I'm going to go with a slight upset here.... E'Town 35 Boyle Co 31

Central vs. Boyle county

After last weeks whitewashing of Belfry, Central seems to be the team to beat in most folks minds, while Boyle Co looks to be a heavy favorite on there side of the bracket.. I'm okay with those teams being the odds on picks, but, I have a hard time seeing either game being much more than a slight favorite..

 

All 4 remaining teams have had stellar years and all 4 have tested themselves against some of the better teams in the state..

 

Corbin @ Central ..... While Central appears to be peaking at the right time, I do wonder how they lost to a Ballard team that ended at 6-6 on the year and were blown out in 5 of those 6 losses.. Not that they lost because Ballard is a 6a school with some talent, but, are they 30-7 better than Central? They also struggled in games against Western and Manual, who are just above average teams this year.. While I see that they're on quite a role right now, if the team that showed up in those 3 games show up Friday night, they could be in a bigger dog fight than most expect... From Corbin's perspective, they have yet to be seriously challenged in the playoffs, which could be a good thing or a bad thing. The good thing is they've been able to rest guys who have had some nagging injuries, so, they should come into this one at full strength. The bad thing is, will they be mentally prepared for a team like Central, who've they've not seen since about mid season. Most folks are saying Corbin hasn't seen a team like this all year with all there speed, however, I'd be hard pressed to believe Central is any more athletic than Alcoa, who's always loaded with D1 and D2 talent.. Mayfield has about as much speed and offensive firepower as anyone in the state and Beechwood team showed a very balanced offense and hard nosed defense, so, this Redhound team has seen comparable talent and should have a very good idea of what lies ahead... I'm not a betting man, but, I do feel like either of these teams are capable of winning this game and even winning it all. I'm giving the edge to Central simply because they're at home and play very well there, but, I do see this as a close one: Central 27 Corbin 21

 

Boyle Co @ E'Town ..... Outside of a heartbreaking last minute loss to crosstown rival Danville, the Rebels of Boyle Co have been nothing short of dominating.. It's hard to find many weaknesses on this team, as they play a very tough, hard-nosed D as well as put up points like a Madden NFL game. If the adage "Defense wins Championships" then I'd be hard pressed to pick anyone else, especially since they have such a good offense to boot... On the other side of the ball, the Rebels need to be on there A game if they expect to roll into E'Town and come away with a win. This team lost a close early season game to CAL, which is no disgrace and otherwise have been about as solid as solid can be.. While PTilghman and Caldwell aren't world beaters, they aren't cupcakes either and E'Town ran through them without breaking a sweat. They also dominated a solid F.Simpson team that's still alive in the 4a playoffs.. So, I could also this game going either way.. While I do feel Boyle Co should be favored, I like the home field advantage and the way E'Town's been playing.. I'm going to go with a slight upset here.... E'Town 35 Boyle Co 31

 

Very good.

 

Your Boyle vs ETown analysis is very good. But just like ETown’s schedule Boyle has blowout wins over Collins and Wayne County as well. Both in their semifinals.

Central vs. Boyle County

Pretty solid recap.

 

Clearly the top 4 teams are gonna slug it out for the 3A title.

 

I will take Boyle v Central in the finals.

I finally had a chance to watch the Belfry vs. Central debacle.

 

1. Central's offense is legit and their Defense is playing loose and aggressive. They are going to be tough to beat.

 

2. The 39 point margin was indicative of the two teams on the field, but not the two rosters. Belfry's injuries were kind of a chain reaction that helped create a perfect storm when mixed with what Central does best.

 

3. When it was a one TD margin and about to be Halftime a series of three plays happened that basically ended the game.

 

Play 1:

The TD pass was kind of a fluke play and should have been an Interception, that made it a 2 TD spread entering the half.

 

Play 2:

Coming out of the Half without their punter and knowing how their D was struggling Belfry went for a 4th and 1. The key lineman and the FB both slip. This leads to a 3 TD margin

 

Play 3:

Belfry shows backbone and drives to the redzone and fumbles after picking up a First Down. Ball. Game.

 

 

After that Belfry kind of packed the tents in.

 

 

With that said, Central is going to be very tough to beat but I think all three remaining teams can hang with them if they dont self destruct like Belfry.

 

I am not sure Corbin has enough Offense to beat Central, same for Etown... but both should be able to match up to Central run game better than the injury riddled Belfry Front 7 did.

 

From what I have seen, if both teams bring their A-games:

Boyle vs. Etown- I think Boyle is 3 TD's better if not 4 TD's. Their size and depth will be very tough for Etown.

 

Boyle vs. Corbin- Corbin actually matches up well against Boyle's Offense but the Hounds will struggle against Boyle's defense. I like Boyle by 7-10 points.

 

Boyle vs. Central- Central's speed on D and physical style will be very tough for Boyle. Boyle's offensive balance and secondary play is an advantage and I liek Paycheck on the DLine. Boyle's LB's may be a bit over their head. I think I like Boyle by a TD.

 

Central vs. Etown- Both will give each other's offenses trouble.Not sure Etown cna win the LOS on either side of the ball. I liek Central by 14-21 points.

 

Central vs. Corbin- Corbin's Defense is well equipped to play with Central's strength with the interior run game. The key is can they make plays against Central's athltic receivers and can they keep them from getting their speed outside. I like Central by a TD or two.

 

Etown vs. Corbin- I don't think Etown has enough firepower or enough size to stop what Corbin does best. Corbin by 3 TD's

We have predicated a Boyle Co-Belfry showdown all year. I predict neither. Central vs E’town in Lexington. Home teams are really tough to beat late in November.

Centrals atmosphere is good for 1 TD margin. Linebacker #39 will be cause for another. Corbin better be good at swing passes because the Jackets bring the House even on 3 step drops but still get tight ends covered. Jackets by 14.

 

Chuck Smith vs. Mark Brown = enjoyable. I’m going to take Becherer and ETown in the upset.

We have predicated a Boyle Co-Belfry showdown all year. I predict neither. Central vs E’town in Lexington. Home teams are really tough to beat late in November.

 

I would usually agree about home teams, but in Boyle's case at away games they usually have more fans than the home team the fans really travel well.

I would usually agree about home teams, but in Boyle's case at away games they usually have more fans than the home team the fans really travel well.

 

I'll bet E'town's side will be standing room only. They see this as their shot especially with the graduation losses on the horizon.

I'll bet E'town's side will be standing room only. They see this as their shot especially with the graduation losses on the horizon.

 

Should be a packed house, the Boyle, Danville games have been known to draw 6-8 thousand fans, and at the height of the rivalry when they were in the same class probably close to 10,000.

Central over Corbin and Boyle over E-Town.

I've seen all 4 teams play in person this year, I live here in Louisville and know the Central Coach ,but feel Corbin will win over Central,Sizemore is a winner and the run /pass option will hurt Central and I also like Boyle to beat Etown,Etown just doesn't match up well with Boyle. I'm picking Boyle over Corbin in Lexington.Boyle has got a really good lines on both sides of the ball.If you haven't seen Boyles Dline they are fun to watch. You have probably 6"3 300lb nose with the other tackle probably 5"11 250 and 2- 6"4,6"5 D-ends. All of them are athletic and can move, that's why nobody has ran the ball on them. If your defense shuts down Jarius Brent's,Wondale Robinson and demaurie van cleave your defense is legit. They will see another back as good as the ones mentioned but doesn't get a lot of attention in Becherer,he can break one at anytime. A while back I had him on my top 10 players in 3a,he is fun to watch. It's fun to talk about these games but everyone knows anything can happen,especially when 15,16,17,18 year old kids are playing.

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