Is there any truth to the rumor of this eventually becoming higher than a CAT 5(is there even such a thing) and will this affect us with rain in the coming weeks?

 

No, it will not be higher than a Cat 5. I just looked at the very latest GFS and it has it as a Cat 4 with sustained winds of around 135 mph just south of Florida Sunday morning. My previous post has the Saffir-Simpson scale in it to show the differences of the 5 categories.

Irma has just been upgraded to a Cat 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 130 mph. Additional strengthening is expected in the next 48 hours. Those with interests in the hurricane warning area should rush their hurricane preparations to completion.

 

Confidence is growing in Irma affecting the continental US by making land fall somewhere in Flordia. Irma could even move back over the Atlantic regain strength then make a second landfall somewhere between Georgia and North Carolina.

 

My next update should be in the morning unless information warrants an update this later this evening.

 

 

 

Looks like a slow mover and may have the Keys and Key West in its sight.

I'm getting a little nervous, now. The track of Irma is on the same path as Donna took in 1960. Donna was the last hurricane to make landfall near the Tampa Bay Area.

 

The population of the TBA was around 900,000 in 1960. It is close to 5 million, now. There are a million people on the peninsula known as Pinellas County, alone. That is where St. Pete, Clearwater, and the area beaches reside. Evacuation is going to be a problem.

 

US19, the Courtney Campbell Causeway (FLA60), the Howard Franklin Bridge (I-275), and the Gandy Bridge (US92) are the only ways off the peninsula other than the Skyway Bridge across the mouth of Tampa Bay. They will close the Skyway at the first sign of high winds. It would be southbound anyway, not a good path to take if this thing is coming up the coast.

 

BTW, on US19, once north of Crystal River, there is little lodging, food, or gas until one gets to Tallahassee. About 3-4 hours of nothing. And you are only 7 or 8 miles from the coast the whole way.

I'm getting a little nervous, now. The track of Irma is on the same path as Donna took in 1960. Donna was the last hurricane to make landfall in the Tampa Bay Area.

 

The population of the TBA was around 900,000 in 1960. It is close to 5 million, now. There are a million people on the peninsula known as Pinellas County, alone. That is where St. Pete, Clearwater, and the area beaches reside. Evacuation is going to be a problem.

 

US19, the Courtney Campbell Causeway (FLA60), the Howard Franklin Bridge (I-275), and the Gandy Bridge (US92) are the only ways off the peninsula other than the Skyway Bridge across the mouth of Tampa Bay. They will close the Skyway at the first sign of high winds. It would be southbound anyway, not a good path to take if this thing is coming up the coast.

They are in the process of publishing the latest GFS. As soon as it is done I'll post what it is showing.

This is the path Donna took.

 

 

Donna's maximum sustained wind speed reached 145 mph.

This is what the just released GFS is showing. The first one is showing Irma making land fall in southern Florida as a Cat 4 hurricane. The second one shows the track straight up almost the middle of Florida. Of course, we are 6 days away and the track will more than likely change.

 

 

@nWo, are there any weather fronts that could steer the storm?

@nWo, are there any weather fronts that could steer the storm?

The main steering mechanism for Irma is a high-pressure ridge over the Atlantic. It was at first thought that it would be weak and allow Irma to make the northward turn earlier and miss the US but it is stronger than anticipated. Time is quickly running out for that to happen. Most of the weather models are starting to come into agreement with a landfall in southern Florida.

@swamprat

 

Florida Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency for the state of Florida over Hurrican Irma.

 

Hurricane Irma is a major and life-threatening storm and Florida must be prepared. I have continued to be briefed by the Florida Division of Emergency Management on Hurricane Irma and current forecast models have Florida in Irma’s path – potentially impacting millions of Floridians. Today, given these forecasts and the intensity of this storm, I have declared a state of emergency for every county in Florida to make certain that state, federal and local governments are able to work together and make sure resources are dispersed to local communities as we get prepared for this storm. In Florida, we always prepare for the worst and hope for the best and while the exact path of Irma is not absolutely known at this time, we cannot afford to not be prepared. This state of emergency allows our emergency management officials to act swiftly in the best interest of Floridians without the burden of bureaucracy or red tape.

In Florida, we know that the best way to protect our families in severe weather is to have a plan. I urge all Floridians to remain vigilant and stay alert to local weather and news and visit FLGetAPlan.com today as we all prepare for Hurricane Irma. We will keep monitoring and issuing updates on Hurricane Irma as it approaches Florida.

 

Scott declares state of emergency ahead of Irma - NBC-2.com WBBH News for Fort Myers, Cape Coral & Naples, Florida

Uuuugh...

 

My sisters in Atlantic Beach NC region have been very fortunate for a long time with regards to Hurricanes. It is my sincere hope their good luck continues! Prayers in advance to those affected by this monster.

 

Be safe swamprat and be sure to batten down the hatches!!!

My son got married in March and was supposed to go to Antigua. A last minute glitch in his passport (they arrived at the airport to discover a problem with his passport), made them reschedule to next week.

 

Of course, they have been joking that, with his luck, there will probably be a hurricane. Well, darn if it didn't happen. At least they are not there right now. Hope everyone down south stays safe!

Antigua looks to take a direct hit from Irma.

Have family in Tampa area...what are the odds this thing hits the Bay area?