September 2, 20179 yr Author Irma continues to fluctuate in strength but remains a powerful Hurricane. Maximum sustained winds near 110 mph with higher gusts. Fluctuations in strength up or down are possible during the next couple of days but Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane into next week. Irma is now at the high end of a category 2 hurricane. The latest GFS has Irma taking a northerly turn and making landfall in the Maryland/New Jersey area on the 10th. As we have seen the track has been changing so those from Florida up the east coast should be paying close attention to Irma starting early to mid next week.
September 3, 20179 yr Author Sunday morning update 9/3/17 at 5:00 AM EDT Irma is moving toward the west-southwest near 15 mph. A turn to the west is expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph with higher gusts. Irma is now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurrican Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast through Monday night. The environment ahead of Irma appears conducive for gradual strengthening for at least the next 2 to 3 days. There may be some fluctuations in intensity, but overall the models seem to suggest a general upward trend in intensity with a peak around day 3. This type of intensification would coincide with the timing of Irma's west-southwest to a westward motion. a pattern which other west-southwestward moving hurricanes in the past (i.e. Katrina, Joaquin, Fernanda, etc.) have followed. It is still much too early to determine what direct impact Irma will have in the continental United States. Regardless everyone in hurricane prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. Those who have interests in those same areas should also pay attention to the forecast in the upcoming days. Here is the latest 5-day path map from the National Hurrican Center. Here is what both the GFS and the GDPS are showing this morning. Both are showing a more southerly possibility than yesterday. The GFS is back to showing a possible northerly turn on the 10th and then land fall in North Carolina just north of Myrtle Beach on the 11th. The Canadian GDPS is showing land fall in Florida between Miami and West Palm Beach on the 10th. Keep checking back for updates. Edited September 3, 20179 yr by nWo
September 3, 20179 yr Author .Sunday evening 9/3/17 update Irma has been moving westward since the previous advisory, but the longer-term motion estimate is still south of due west. A strong high-pressure ridge over the central Atlantic should steer Irma westward to west-southwestward during the next couple of days. After that time a turn toward the west-northwest should occur. The models are still not in good agreement about the track of Irma. The latest track from the NHC is in the middle of what the models are showing as of now. Everyone is reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center. In fact, data indicates that the size of the tropical storm force wind field has expanded. Irma is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through the upcoming week. It is still too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have in the continental US. Regardless everyone in hurricane prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. There is a difference in what the GFS and Canadian/GDPS are showing. The GDPS is showing Irma landfall on the evening of the hugging the eastern coast of Flordia before making landfall on the evening of the 10th. While the GFS is showing a more northerly turn and staying off the shore until the evening of the 11th and Irma making landfall in North Carolina. So this shows the difficulty of predicting Irma's effect on the US east coast this far out. If you have interest in the possible landfall areas keep checking back for daily updates. Here are the latest 5-day movement track and wind field maps from the National Hurricane Center.
September 3, 20179 yr Author I have a child going to Antigua for his honeymoon. Please keep me posted. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Antiqua for Irma. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday night. with tropical storm conditions by late Tuesday.
September 4, 20179 yr Author Irma, right center, of this water vapor satellite image heading towards the Leeward Islands.
September 4, 20179 yr Author @Beechwoodfan The 8 pm GFS is showing Irma hitting Antiqua late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. It is showing that Irma will be at least a category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of around 112-115 mph. For everyone else, the 8 pm GFS and Canadian/GDPS were both showing Irma hitting south Florida and going northward into Georgia. The GFS was showing it more going up the east coast while the GDPS was showing it going right up the middle of Florida. The one major difference is the timing and strength. The GFS has Irma making possible landfall Sunday evening but the GDPS has it making landfall Saturday evening. If we go with the GFS Irma will be almost a Cat 4 hurricane by Sunday evening. I will post an update later this morning when this mornings GFS run is released.
September 4, 20179 yr Good satellite imagery here: RAMMB/CIRA SLIDER: Satellite Loop Interactive Data Explorer in Real-time with GOES-16 and Himawari-8 Satellite Imagery
September 4, 20179 yr Author @Beechwoodfan Antigua is now under a Hurricane Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Irma.
September 4, 20179 yr Is there any truth to the rumor of this eventually becoming higher than a CAT 5(is there even such a thing) and will this affect us with rain in the coming weeks?
September 4, 20179 yr Author Monday morning update: at 11 am EDT Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 3.3 West. Irma is moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph. A turn toward the west is expected later today, followed by a west-northwestward turn late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near or over portions of northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast through Tuesday night. The latest GFS has Irma making landfall in southwestern Florida and moving up into inland Florida. Now, this is just a snapshot in time and as we can all see the track has changed many times. One thing of note is that the latest couple of GFS runs has Hurricane Irma striking Flordia. We'll just have to see if Irma follows that track. There is a possibility that Irma could even go into the Gulf of Mexico. Those with interests in the possible landfall areas should keep checking back for updates and if you are in one of these areas be going over your hurricane emergency plan now.
September 4, 20179 yr Is there any truth to the rumor of this eventually becoming higher than a CAT 5(is there even such a thing) and will this affect us with rain in the coming weeks? Scale only goes to five. And this storm likely won't even reach that.
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