Irma is now a major Cat 3 hurricane with winds greater than 110 mph. The models are all over the place with the track of Irma. Those from the Carribean, Flordia and the Carolinas should follow the progress of this storm's path. Reading some reports about Irma they say it formed in the same area as Hugo, Floyd, and Ivan. This area has been known to produce some of the largest and most intense hurricanes. Now I'm not saying Irma will take the same track as one of the storms named. The models should start getting a hold on the possible track of Irma early next week.

 

I wanted to start a new thread because of how quickly Irma strengthen.

 

 

Information on hurricanes I mentioned.

 

Hugo

 

Floyd

 

Ivan

When would it hit the Carolina's if it went in that direction?

When would it hit the Carolina's if it went in that direction?

 

Maybe in a week or so give a day or two. I'm going to be watching this closer than I planned because of how quickly it intensified.

Maybe in a week or so give a day or two. I'm going to be watching this closer than I planned because of how quickly it intensified.

 

Thanks, I'll be heading that way the 13th.

Thanks, I'll be heading that way the 13th.

I'll be keeping a close eye on it. For now, the GFS has it heading towards the Carolinas. The Canadian model I just checked has it going through south Florida into the Gulf of Mexico on the 10th. So everyone can see the track is still up in the air. That is why I said people from the Carribean to the Carolinas should keep and eye on this powerful storm.

I'll be keeping a close eye on it. For now, the GFS has it heading towards the Carolinas. The Canadian model I just checked has it going through south Florida into the Gulf of Mexico on the 10th. So everyone can see the track is still up in the air. That is why I said people from the Carribean to the Carolinas should keep and eye on this powerful storm.

 

Why do models vary so much?

Why do models vary so much?

 

Not all models have the same data input and each model have a different way the mathematical problems are solved. It also depends on the weather situation. Some do well on a particular weather situation while others don't in the same situation. It also depends on the geographical location of this situation. Some do well while others don't. That is why I will check several models before I really post anything unless I feel the information should be posted to give our members a heads up. When the models come into agreement as you get closer to a weather event that means they are all doing pretty well with that event. Also the further away you are from a weather event it is more difficult for the models to accurately predict what will happen. Also, some models are only refreshed every 12 hrs. Some every 6 hrs and then some every 3 or 1 hrs. So you can see why there is such a variance in the models predicting the weather until you get close to the even.t

I'll be in Orlando for a Conference Mon-Fri. It would be super if any hurricanes could by pass FL, please.

I'll be in Orlando for a Conference Mon-Fri. It would be super if any hurricanes could by pass FL, please.

 

You should be ok. I'm not seeing any thing close to Florida around the 10th if Irma takes a more southerly track.

Not all models have the same data input and each model have a different way the mathematical problems are solved. It also depends on the weather situation. Some do well on a particular weather situation while others don't in the same situation. It also depends on the geographical location of this situation. Some do well while others don't. That is why I will check several models before I really post anything unless I feel the information should be posted to give our members a heads up. When the models come into agreement as you get closer to a weather event that means they are all doing pretty well with that event. Also the further away you are from a weather event it is more difficult for the models to accurately predict what will happen. Also, some models are only refreshed every 12 hrs. Some every 6 hrs and then some every 3 or 1 hrs. So you can see why there is such a variance in the models predicting the weather until you get close to the even.t

Which do you trust most? And I guess they may depend upon the area you are researching?

Which do you trust most? And I guess they may depend upon the area you are researching?

 

Long range I like the GFS and to a lesser extent GDPS/Candian model

 

two or three days out the NAM and NAM 3km CONUS

 

The day of the event the HRRR model

I'll be keeping an eye out on this thread! weather intrigues me! I should have went to school to be a weather man!

The latest model data that I use shows Irma taking a more northerly turn. The long range GFS and the Canadian/GDPS have Irma going up the east coast and not making landfall. The GDPS has Irma close to the Florida Coast and the GFS has it staying off the coast. Remember these are just a snap shot in time and could change and probably will by next week. This morning the GDPS had Irma crossing south Florida and going into the Gulf of Mexico.

 

Those in the areas I mentioned this morning should still pay attention to the track of this storm.

 

GFS Model

 

 

Canadian/GDPS

 

Here is the latest track just released by the National Hurricane Center at 5 pm EDT. It also shows the start of the northerly turn of Irma.

 

Irma is in the bottom right corner.