Male, Trinity 1-2 in Litkenhous Ratings | USA Today High School Sports | USA Today High School Sports

 

 

Only three games left before playoff time. Any big surprises with the computer ratings?

Always interesting. Always some obvious errors. It seems like the Lit heavily weights schedule strength but does not factor in how the team performs against that schedule. A loss against a really good team looks like it is better than a win against an average team. That is how it looks to me.

Would you expect any different?

3-A West Carter #9 Russell #13 Russell beat West Carter. I love the computer rankings about as much as the AP guys.

Always interesting. Always some obvious errors. It seems like the Lit heavily weights schedule strength but does not factor in how the team performs against that schedule. A loss against a really good team looks like it is better than a win against an average team. That is how it looks to me.

that isn't entirely true. Cooper has had a tougher schedule than Ryle and beat Ryle also and they are still several spots behind Ryle.

I have seen Boyle County, South Warren, and Bowling Green play, there is no way Boyle County is better than Bowling Green. Bowling Green is better than South Warren.

3-A West Carter #9 Russell #13 Russell beat West Carter. I love the computer rankings about as much as the AP guys.

 

West also beat a team that beat Russell at home...

Always interesting. Always some obvious errors. It seems like the Lit heavily weights schedule strength but does not factor in how the team performs against that schedule. A loss against a really good team looks like it is better than a win against an average team. That is how it looks to me.

 

There are three computer rankings: Lit (CJ), Cantrall (LHL) and MaxPreps/CalPreps (SAME RANKING if you check, even down to the tenth of a percent being the same and the strength of schedule being exactly the same).

 

That being said, the same five schools (Male 1-1-1, Trinity 2-2-2, SK 3-4-3, Scott Co 4-3-5 and St. X 5-5-4) are in the top five of each ranking/rating.

 

Bryan Station, Boyle and BG are also top-10 teams according to all three. So that's 8/10 consensus.

 

DuPont Manul, Ryle, and South Warren are in the 8-17 range of all three.

 

Cooper, Pulaski, Owensboro and Lafayette are in the 10-19 range of all three. So that's 15/20 teams that are ranked out of every poll. Not too many errors.

 

TOP 20 IN 3-OF-3 COMPUTER POLLS

01. Male, 60

02. Trinity, 57

03. Simon Kenton, 53

04. Scott County, 51

05. St. Xavier, 49

06. Boyle County, 42

07. Bowling Green, 41

08. Bryan Station, 39

09. South Warren, 32

10. Cooper, 30

11. Ryle, 28

12. DuPont Manual, 24

13. Owensboro, 22

14. Lafayette, 19

15. Pulaski County, 14

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TOP 20 IN 2-OF-3 COMPUTER POLLS

16. Belfry, 13

17. McCracken County, 12

18. Johnson Central, 10

19. Mayfield, 7

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TOP 20 IN 1-OF-3 COMPUTER POLLS

20. Covington Catholic, 9

21. Ashland Blazer, 6

22. Lexington Catholic, 5

23. PRP, 3

24. CAL, 2

25-TIE. Central Hardin and DeSales, 1

 

Only 26 programs appear in the top 20.

Edited October 13, 201510 yr by Nathaniel Bryan
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This ranking does not have any credibility with me. Ryle has wins against 3 winless teams and got beat by Cooper,, yet they are still ranked higher than Cooper? Not sure how that can even happen.

This ranking does not have any credibility with me. Ryle has wins against 3 winless teams and got beat by Cooper,, yet they are still ranked higher than Cooper? Not sure how that can even happen.

 

FWIW, Cooper has also played one of those winless teams (Campbell) that Ryle played and is about to play a second (Boone). Playing Boone will severely hurt Cooper's strength of schedule, while it will barely hurt Ryle (since Boone is already included for Ryle).

 

This is the info by MaxPreps/CalPreps (same exact numbers) for Ryle and Cooper:

 

COOPER WINS

#1196 Ryle (Union, KY) (27-21),

#2289 Lexington Catholic (Lexington, KY) (28-0),

#3381 Highlands (Fort Thomas, KY) (37-13),

#4366 Newport Central Catholic (Newport, KY) (35-0),

#7530 Dixie Heights (Edgewood, KY) (35-7),

#8439 Campbell County (Alexandria, KY) (35-7),

 

RYLE WINS

#2289 Lexington Catholic (Lexington, KY) (31-24),

#3244 Covington Catholic (Park Hills, KY) (35-28),

#3381 Highlands (Fort Thomas, KY) (48-24),

#8420 Boone County (Florence, KY) (52-7),

#8439 Campbell County (Alexandria, KY) (52-7),

#8531 Clark [George Rogers] (Winchester, KY) (49-10)

 

COOPER LOSSES

#162 Kenton [simon] (Independence, KY) (26-7),

#605 Bryan Station (Lexington, KY) (36-0)

 

RYLE LOSSES

#793 Cooper (Burlington, KY) (27-21)

 

What sticks out to me is Ryle scored more points against every common opponent: LexCath (31 Ryle, 28 Cooper), Highlands (48-37) and Campbell (52-35).

 

Ryle was also competitive in its one loss (point differential of 6) while Cooper wasn't in either loss (differential of 19 and 36).

 

I have no dog in this fight. Just telling you what the numbers see.

 

You can't make head-to-head as the SOLE decider, because that negates styles, matchups, weather, injuries, etc.

 

Just because Team A can shut down Team B's passing attack one week does NOT mean Team A will be able to beat Team C (which may be WORSE than Team B, but have a running attack that Team A struggles to stop).

 

Cooper barely beat Ryle at home. However, NEITHER team is perfect on the road. Flip the script and we could have been talking about Ryle beating Cooper (since BOTH teams are perfect at home, but flipping the game would mean Ryle playing at home against Cooper instead of Ryle being on the road).

FWIW, Cooper has also played one of those winless teams (Campbell) that Ryle played and is about to play a second (Boone). Playing Boone will severely hurt Cooper's strength of schedule, while it will barely hurt Ryle (since Boone is already included for Ryle).

 

This is the info by MaxPreps/CalPreps (same exact numbers) for Ryle and Cooper:

 

COOPER WINS

#1196 Ryle (Union, KY) (27-21),

#2289 Lexington Catholic (Lexington, KY) (28-0),

#3381 Highlands (Fort Thomas, KY) (37-13),

#4366 Newport Central Catholic (Newport, KY) (35-0),

#7530 Dixie Heights (Edgewood, KY) (35-7),

#8439 Campbell County (Alexandria, KY) (35-7),

 

RYLE WINS

#2289 Lexington Catholic (Lexington, KY) (31-24),

#3244 Covington Catholic (Park Hills, KY) (35-28),

#3381 Highlands (Fort Thomas, KY) (48-24),

#8420 Boone County (Florence, KY) (52-7),

#8439 Campbell County (Alexandria, KY) (52-7),

#8531 Clark [George Rogers] (Winchester, KY) (49-10)

 

COOPER LOSSES

#162 Kenton [simon] (Independence, KY) (26-7),

#605 Bryan Station (Lexington, KY) (36-0)

 

RYLE LOSSES

#793 Cooper (Burlington, KY) (27-21)

 

What sticks out to me is Ryle scored more points against every common opponent: LexCath (31 Ryle, 28 Cooper), Highlands (48-37) and Campbell (52-35).

 

Ryle was also competitive in its one loss (point differential of 6) while Cooper wasn't in either loss (differential of 19 and 36).

 

I have no dog in this fight. Just telling you what the numbers see.

 

You can't make head-to-head as the SOLE decider, because that negates styles, matchups, weather, injuries, etc.

 

Just because Team A can shut down Team B's passing attack one week does NOT mean Team A will be able to beat Team C (which may be WORSE than Team B, but have a running attack that Team A struggles to stop).

 

Cooper barely beat Ryle at home. However, NEITHER team is perfect on the road. Flip the script and we could have been talking about Ryle beating Cooper (since BOTH teams are perfect at home, but flipping the game would mean Ryle playing at home against Cooper instead of Ryle being on the road).

 

Thanks for your input and information, but I just do not see how you can be ranked higher than a team that just beat you. I was at the Cooper/Ryle game and it was not as close as the score may indicate. Had Cooper continued to play their normal defense and not the prevent style they played at the end of the game, that last score by Ryle does not happen.

 

As far as strength of schedule,, on another thread I saw where Cooper's schedule was ranked 17th to Ryle's rank was 30th,,, I am sorry I cannot quote the source so I am not sure how that applies. Yet,, the deciding factor for me is that you should not be ranked higher than a team that just beat you. Just my opinion though.

Lit ratings are a joke.

FWIW, Cooper has also played one of those winless teams (Campbell) that Ryle played and is about to play a second (Boone). Playing Boone will severely hurt Cooper's strength of schedule, while it will barely hurt Ryle (since Boone is already included for Ryle).

 

This is the info by MaxPreps/CalPreps (same exact numbers) for Ryle and Cooper:

 

COOPER WINS

#1196 Ryle (Union, KY) (27-21),

#2289 Lexington Catholic (Lexington, KY) (28-0),

#3381 Highlands (Fort Thomas, KY) (37-13),

#4366 Newport Central Catholic (Newport, KY) (35-0),

#7530 Dixie Heights (Edgewood, KY) (35-7),

#8439 Campbell County (Alexandria, KY) (35-7),

 

RYLE WINS

#2289 Lexington Catholic (Lexington, KY) (31-24),

#3244 Covington Catholic (Park Hills, KY) (35-28),

#3381 Highlands (Fort Thomas, KY) (48-24),

#8420 Boone County (Florence, KY) (52-7),

#8439 Campbell County (Alexandria, KY) (52-7),

#8531 Clark [George Rogers] (Winchester, KY) (49-10)

 

COOPER LOSSES

#162 Kenton [simon] (Independence, KY) (26-7),

#605 Bryan Station (Lexington, KY) (36-0)

 

RYLE LOSSES

#793 Cooper (Burlington, KY) (27-21)

 

What sticks out to me is Ryle scored more points against every common opponent: LexCath (31 Ryle, 28 Cooper), Highlands (48-37) and Campbell (52-35).

 

Ryle was also competitive in its one loss (point differential of 6) while Cooper wasn't in either loss (differential of 19 and 36).

 

I have no dog in this fight. Just telling you what the numbers see.

 

You can't make head-to-head as the SOLE decider, because that negates styles, matchups, weather, injuries, etc.

 

Just because Team A can shut down Team B's passing attack one week does NOT mean Team A will be able to beat Team C (which may be WORSE than Team B, but have a running attack that Team A struggles to stop).

 

Cooper barely beat Ryle at home. However, NEITHER team is perfect on the road. Flip the script and we could have been talking about Ryle beating Cooper (since BOTH teams are perfect at home, but flipping the game would mean Ryle playing at home against Cooper instead of Ryle being on the road).

I was with you until the end when you said Cooper barely beat Ryle at home. You do understand Cooper was up 14 with 8 seconds left in the game right?

Thanks for your input and information, but I just do not see how you can be ranked higher than a team that just beat you. I was at the Cooper/Ryle game and it was not as close as the score may indicate. Had Cooper continued to play their normal defense and not the prevent style they played at the end of the game, that last score by Ryle does not happen.

 

As far as strength of schedule,, on another thread I saw where Cooper's schedule was ranked 17th to Ryle's rank was 30th,,, I am sorry I cannot quote the source so I am not sure how that applies. Yet,, the deciding factor for me is that you should not be ranked higher than a team that just beat you. Just my opinion though.

 

So, should Central be ranked ahead of St. Xavier?

I was with you until the end when you said Cooper barely beat Ryle at home. You do understand Cooper was up 14 with 8 seconds left in the game right?

 

14 is barely. You outscore a team by one touchdown each quarter and you win by 24-32. Decrease that to just outscoring your opponent by one TD per half and it's 6-16.

 

14 with 8 seconds left, and letting them score, is barely. I've seen teams score twice in the final minute and get the 2-point conversion both times (which would have given Ryle a win outright, let alone overtime).

 

Computer ratings don't care how much you LED by, only the FINAL score/difference (or else Georgia wouldn't be hurt that much for losing to Tennessee).

 

And like Jason Frakes said, head-to-head means little when it comes to rankings.

 

- Paducah Tilghman is NOT ahead of McCracken in any computer ranking (although PT beat MC)

- Central is not ahead of St. X (Central not in top 10 in any computer ranking, X in top 10 in all of them)

- Knox Central is NOT ahead of Louisville Central (although Knox beat Central)

 

In theory, the head-to-head game works (except when losses happen to lower-ranked teams).

 

In the Ryle-Cooper case, there are other factors at play (One team scoring more against common opponents, one team faring better in losses, the head-to-head loss coming on the road instead of at home, one team playing winless teams earlier, etc.).