December 30, 201411 yr I don't see a huge problem with waiting until the ASG to blow it up. First, a ton of IF's but you never know and you would be selling low on a lot of guys. I believe the return is greater during the season because of injuries or teams getting a taste of winning and willing to overpay. Right now everyone is healthy and optimistic. If a guy like Grienke were to go down or the Blue Jays are playing well, you could command a lot more in July for Cueto or Bailey than right now. Chapman gets much more on the market in July too with some team fixing the pen. It doesn't always take 2-3 years to rebuild... Just ask Average Joe and his Red Sox. It's a roll of the dice but when you couple that with the talent on the team and potential to play well I would roll them. I definitely agree on it not taking 2-3 years to rebuild--with a good front office and farm system. As for trading value I don't agree with you on that one at all. First, if you are a contender and are missing a piece such as a starter or closer you help yourself more by having the player for the entire season instead of 2-3 months. By the time you get them it might be too late for them to be the difference maker that they could be over a whole season. Also teams are less likely to give up top prospects for a 2-3 month rental since the rules changes regarding free agents and draft picks. In the past a team would give up a top prospect for a rental knowing that if they offered that rental player arbitration that they would either retain the player or get up to 2 draft picks for them. Since the rule change a player obtained during the season before he becomes a free agent does not cost a team a draft pick to sign. That means that teams can't get a top prospect back if that rental goes elsewhere. You just don't see the caliber of prospects changing hands at the trade deadline for players who will be free agents at the end of the season like you used to. Of course the key to an off season trade is finding a trading partner that matches up with you. That's the tricky part. With Chapman, however, I don't think that would be hard to find.
December 30, 201411 yr How much do they anticipate to lose in ticket sales over the next 2-3 years after having the fire sale? As I've said in the past I definitely support a rebuild. This is the perfect time considering the All Star game is this year and people have to buy season tickets to get to the All Star tickets, so that loss won't be there this season. Build around Frazier, Meso, Hamilton. You'll still have Votto, but I do wonder if they can restructure his deal where he can take more money up front this season since the income will still be there for the Reds and if they don't fill some of the pay roll they got rid of. So that way they can have more flexablilty in the future.
December 31, 201411 yr I definitely agree on it not taking 2-3 years to rebuild--with a good front office and farm system. As for trading value I don't agree with you on that one at all. First, if you are a contender and are missing a piece such as a starter or closer you help yourself more by having the player for the entire season instead of 2-3 months. By the time you get them it might be too late for them to be the difference maker that they could be over a whole season. Also teams are less likely to give up top prospects for a 2-3 month rental since the rules changes regarding free agents and draft picks. In the past a team would give up a top prospect for a rental knowing that if they offered that rental player arbitration that they would either retain the player or get up to 2 draft picks for them. Since the rule change a player obtained during the season before he becomes a free agent does not cost a team a draft pick to sign. That means that teams can't get a top prospect back if that rental goes elsewhere. You just don't see the caliber of prospects changing hands at the trade deadline for players who will be free agents at the end of the season like you used to. Of course the key to an off season trade is finding a trading partner that matches up with you. That's the tricky part. With Chapman, however, I don't think that would be hard to find. I'm more along the lines of due to an injury and not wanting to lose out on the season. I'm not as aware of the draft pick rules and its affect at the deadline but still feel like year in year out people overpay for players in July. I see what your saying though and if I were a GM it's not like I would bank on the July trade market. But usually there is always a need and some team gets way too desperate. My comment had the Garza to Texas deal in mind, where they certainly overpaid with now one of the top prospects in the game for a rental. But then again, David Price didn't command as much as I would have thought. So if I'm pushing the reset button right now, I'll look around and if something comes up I'll pull the trigger but if not I'm not selling now just to sell. Despite what people on here think, I think this team is an 80 win team right now and could be better if a couple guys bounce back. I also think I would be selling low on a Bruce or Bailey. I would rather play out April and May and see where I'm at because the talent is on the roster.
December 31, 201411 yr Reds need new ownership before they start a rebuild. Bob has made his mistakes but this guy puts everything he has into the team. He loses money. I would rather that than someone who doesn't care. Now if he doesn't learn from his mistakes then you have a problem but the guy is putting it all out there.
January 22, 201511 yr Price says the favorites for the 4th and 5th slot are Cingrani and DeSclafani. = W- 70 L- 92. :puke:
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