GOP Struggles

[acemona]

Excellent read.

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30745624/page/2/

[mcpapa]

I remember listening to the election returns in November, and there was a LOT of analysis of the shift in suburbia. It was interesting to see just how many suburban districts flipped in 2008.

[mcpapa]

A telling passage from the article:

 

One could argue the GOP made no progress on limiting government in their four years of total control, from 2002 to 2006. If anything, government expanded like never before.

 

From the Medicare prescription drug plan, to the creation of the Department of Homeland Security, and the passage of No Child Left Behind, President Bush presided over a major expansion of the reach of government.

 

Individually, strong cases can be made for all of these programs. But the big picture is clear for all to see: Under Republican rule, government got bigger and more intrusive.

 

Which brings us to personal freedoms: From the legislating of morality (Schiavo as the prime example), to the various conservative-led state bans on gay marriage, the Republicans did very little to expand personal freedoms and if anything looked like the party trying to take freedoms away.

[bballfamily]

A telling passage from the article:

 

One could argue the GOP made no progress on limiting government in their four years of total control, from 2002 to 2006. If anything, government expanded like never before.

 

From the Medicare prescription drug plan, to the creation of the Department of Homeland Security, and the passage of No Child Left Behind, President Bush presided over a major expansion of the reach of government.

 

Individually, strong cases can be made for all of these programs. But the big picture is clear for all to see: Under Republican rule, government got bigger and more intrusive.

 

Which brings us to personal freedoms: From the legislating of morality (Schiavo as the prime example), to the various conservative-led state bans on gay marriage, the Republicans did very little to expand personal freedoms and if anything looked like the party trying to take freedoms away.

 

Gay marriage was not allowed in all 50 states until recently. The efforts were to keep it that way, no freedoms were done away with. The efforts were to keep pervesion from becoming the norm. Even if you do not follow the word of God, homosexuality is the dictates of nature.

[Hearsay]

The article is NOT well-written. We need to be more objective about these things.

 

However, there is no question that the Republican Party has major problems with demographic shifts in its traditional suburban voter base.

 

Incidentally, this was the same type of problem that the Democratic Party had 10-15 years ago, and they got some smart people to figure it out and reverse it. I have no doubt Republicans can and will do the same. The death knell of the parties always tolls too soon.

[Clyde]

The article is NOT well-written. We need to be more objective about these things.

 

However, there is no question that the Republican Party has major problems with demographic shifts in its traditional suburban voter base.

 

Incidentally, this was the same type of problem that the Democratic Party had 10-15 years ago, and they got some smart people to figure it out and reverse it. I have no doubt Republicans can and will do the same. The death knell of the parties always tolls too soon.

 

I agree. The purported demise of the Republican party is a reactionary response to one election. If the current administration fails I don't need to see demographics of suburbia to know who will win the next election.

[tenaciousD]

Gay marriage was not allowed in all 50 states until recently. The efforts were to keep it that way, no freedoms were done away with. The efforts were to keep pervesion from becoming the norm. Even if you do not follow the word of God, homosexuality is the dictates of nature.

 

Wow

[Habib]

Political parties always fascinate me. The Republicans are indeed in trouble and in need of a reorientation. Just a few of my thoughts:

 

• A generation grew up under Bush. That may take years to counteract and overcome. Hoping Obama turns out poorly is not a viable tactic, particularly considering his support among the electorate.
  
• Republicans lost this last election not because of message, but because no one believes them anymore. Even now, criticizing the Obama administration for spending is a bit difficult when Republicans presided over drastic increases in spending when they had control.
  
• I think the Republicans have adopted too many issues, or at least placed too many of these issues at the top of their lists, that serve to divide the electorate for their electoral gain. As public opinion shifts away from gay marriage, for instance, Republicans lose an advantage and look out of touch doing it. Additionally, Republicans continually demand adherence to "conservative" values, which are increasingly less defined, ambiguous, and occasionally contradictory.
  
• There is a paucity of leadership in the party. Democrats have been successful in making Rush Limbaugh the figurehead of the party and Republicans have been all too happy to accept it. That will never translate into election victories.
  

[Hearsay]

Political parties always fascinate me. The Republicans are indeed in trouble and in need of a reorientation. Just a few of my thoughts:

 

• A generation grew up under Bush. That may take years to counteract and overcome. Hoping Obama turns out poorly is not a viable tactic, particularly considering his support among the electorate.
  
• Republicans lost this last election not because of message, but because no one believes them anymore. Even now, criticizing the Obama administration for spending is a bit difficult when Republicans presided over drastic increases in spending when they had control.
  
• I think the Republicans have adopted too many issues, or at least placed too many of these issues at the top of their lists, that serve to divide the electorate for their electoral gain. As public opinion shifts away from gay marriage, for instance, Republicans lose an advantage and look out of touch doing it. Additionally, Republicans continually demand adherence to "conservative" values, which are increasingly less defined, ambiguous, and occasionally contradictory.
  
• There is a paucity of leadership in the party. Democrats have been successful in making Rush Limbaugh the figurehead of the party and Republicans have been all too happy to accept it. That will never translate into election victories.
  

 

Disagree with one and two, but three and four are spot on.

[RowdyRedRam]

Political parties always fascinate me. The Republicans are indeed in trouble and in need of a reorientation. Just a few of my thoughts...

I would add the demographic shift in regards to growing African American and Hispanic population (especially in the youth) will doom the Republican party if they don't make in roads with these groups.

[Gunner11]

Political parties always fascinate me. The Republicans are indeed in trouble and in need of a reorientation. Just a few of my thoughts:

 

• A generation grew up under Bush. That may take years to counteract and overcome. Hoping Obama turns out poorly is not a viable tactic, particularly considering his support among the electorate.
  
• Republicans lost this last election not because of message, but because no one believes them anymore. Even now, criticizing the Obama administration for spending is a bit difficult when Republicans presided over drastic increases in spending when they had control.
  
• I think the Republicans have adopted too many issues, or at least placed too many of these issues at the top of their lists, that serve to divide the electorate for their electoral gain. As public opinion shifts away from gay marriage, for instance, Republicans lose an advantage and look out of touch doing it. Additionally, Republicans continually demand adherence to "conservative" values, which are increasingly less defined, ambiguous, and occasionally contradictory.
  
• There is a paucity of leadership in the party. Democrats have been successful in making Rush Limbaugh the figurehead of the party and Republicans have been all too happy to accept it. That will never translate into election victories.
  

 

I agree with hearsay 3 and 4 are spot on.

 

Obama enjoys support of the electorate yes. But it is not overwhelming support. Slightly over half. 52.9% of voters voted for him.

[GO CATS]

The article is NOT well-written. We need to be more objective about these things.

 

However, there is no question that the Republican Party has major problems with demographic shifts in its traditional suburban voter base.

 

Incidentally, this was the same type of problem that the Democratic Party had 10-15 years ago, and they got some smart people to figure it out and reverse it. I have no doubt Republicans can and will do the same. The death knell of the parties always tolls too soon.

 

I agree, after the 2004 elections it looked like the democratic party was dead and they came back I coud see the Republicans making the same comeback...

[Habib]

I agree with hearsay 3 and 4 are spot on.

 

Obama enjoys support of the electorate yes. But it is not overwhelming support. Slightly over half. 52.9% of voters voted for him.

 

Yes, but my point is that 1) Obama's approval ratings are generally quite favorable in contrast to his predecessor (obviously his tenure is young and these are subject to change), and 2) presidents frame a generation worth of votes, i.e. Carter probably fostered years worth of Republican rule. A recent Gallup Poll hones in on this. In short, I argue that there is not an insignificant number of voters whose first vote took place during the Bush presidency, or who identify as independent/moderates, who will view Republicans disfavorably because of Bush until convinced otherwise.

[Gunner11]

Yes, but my point is that 1) Obama's approval ratings are generally quite favorable in contrast to his predecessor (obviously his tenure is young and these are subject to change), and 2) presidents frame a generation worth of votes, i.e. Carter probably fostered years worth of Republican rule. A recent Gallup Poll hones in on this. In short, I argue that there is not an insignificant number of voters whose first vote took place during the Bush presidency, or who identify as independent/moderates, who will view Republicans disfavorably because of Bush until convinced otherwise.

 

Time will tell, you are correct it is very early. I think the honeymoon phase is just starting to wane a litle now.

 

I think he was smart today to try and back away from the whole investigation of the previous administration. It is only going to score points for republicans and I think he knows it. It is not going to help him attract new support because those with that much disdain for the previous administration already support Obama. It does open the door to change the focus to Pelosi and her ilk which is the last thing he needs (Pelosi's approval rating may be somewhere in the low teens), which we are already seeing happen.

 

Not good when your approval rating is below Rush...

 

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/brent-baker/2009/03/17/cbs-news-poll-limbaugh-has-higher-approval-pelosi

[swamprat]

Yes, but my point is that 1) Obama's approval ratings are generally quite favorable in contrast to his predecessor (obviously his tenure is young and these are subject to change), and 2) presidents frame a generation worth of votes, i.e. Carter probably fostered years worth of Republican rule. A recent Gallup Poll hones in on this. In short, I argue that there is not an insignificant number of voters whose first vote took place during the Bush presidency, or who identify as independent/moderates, who will view Republicans disfavorably because of Bush until convinced otherwise.

You have to keep in mind, that Obama has not been in office 5 months yet. George had approval ratings through the roof, until late into his first term. Carter's approval ratings were phenominal early in his presidency as well. So let's revisit that post in a year or so. Things could be a whole lot different.

 

If there is one thing I've learned about the citizenry of this country, it is that it's fickle. They can turn on you faster than Joe Biden can stick his foot in his mouth. And the media loves to build a hero, then takes real joy in tearing them down. (They did it to Clinton.) If I'm President Obama, I'd be watching my back. You never know when, Charlie Gibson will come after him.