7 hours ago, theguru said:

Additionally for any math whizzes, assuming both OC and Beechwood win out, which team gets the #1 seed?

There really isn't any advantage in 1 vs 2. The 1 and 2 seeds will have home field all the way to the state title game if they keep winning and would only face each in the state title game. The goal is finish 1 or 2.

Just now, Voice of Reason said:

There really isn't any advantage in 1 vs 2. The 1 and 2 seeds will have home field all the way to the state title game if they keep winning and would only face each in the state title game. The goal is finish 1 or 2.

The only advantage may be which teams are 3 and 4.

Just now, theguru said:

The only advantage may be which teams are 3 and 4.

True. To that end, if you think there is a clear top three, then finishing #1 is an advantage because you will only play 1 of the top 2. If you are the 2 seed, you could possibly face both #3 and #1 in the playoffs.

Final Four:

LCA at Owensboro Catholic

Belfry at Beechwood

FINALS: Beechwood vs. Owensboro Catholic

12 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

True. To that end, if you think there is a clear top three, then finishing #1 is an advantage because you will only play 1 of the top 2. If you are the 2 seed, you could possibly face both #3 and #1 in the playoffs.

I do feel this season there are a top three group, then a gap to the next group. I think finishing with the 1 seed would be an advantage. I think Beechwood, LCA, and O Cath are the top three. While I think the gap to 4-6 may not be huge and would still create a good semifinal game, I do feel being the 1 seed would provide a more favorable matchup than being the 2 seed.

1 hour ago, BrosefStalin said:

Final Four:

LCA at Owensboro Catholic

Belfry at Beechwood

FINALS: Beechwood vs. Owensboro Catholic

1 hour ago, BrosefStalin said:

Final Four:

LCA at Owensboro Catholic

Belfry at Beechwood

FINALS: Beechwood vs. Owensboro Catholic

Can Owensboro Catholic get the #1 spot if Beechwood wins out? If so, It will be Belfry at OC and LCA at Beechwood.

1 hour ago, TimeWillTell said:

Can Owensboro Catholic get the #1 spot if Beechwood wins out? If so, It will be Belfry at OC and LCA at Beechwood.

I think they can, but I don't think they will -- variables in play that will make it very close. What I laid out was just MY prediction. Will be interesting to see how it plays out for sure.

The one team no one is mentioning is Somerset. Somerset is a sleeper and can possibly make some noise.

1 minute ago, Subway5024 said:

The one team no one is mentioning is Somerset. Somerset is a sleeper and can possibly make some noise.

I agree with this 100%. I have told people to watch out for Somerset ever since their scrimmage against Beechwood.

Just now, Voice of Reason said:

I agree with this 100%. I have told people to watch out for Somerset ever since their scrimmage against Beechwood.

And not to mention you have these teams all in the West. OCath, LCA, Mayfield, Somerset, and Danville.

20 minutes ago, Subway5024 said:

The one team no one is mentioning is Somerset. Somerset is a sleeper and can possibly make some noise.

While I agree Somerset is very good this year, based on what I'm seeing, their projected 3rd round matchup would be on the road vs. Owensboro Catholic. Not idea for the Briar Jumpers and I think the main reason why they're not being talked about more in these types of discussions.

That said - Guy Turner is very very good.

Updated Top 10. Beechwood remains #1. LCA moves into the #2 spot and Mayfield moves into the #4 spot.

Interesting how much O Cath's rating dropped with the win over a 1-6 team. Beechwood is going to take a double hit like that in a couple weeks when they play district opponent Gallatin County and then play Bracken County.

Based on what I know about RPI, I have a hard time seeing a 2 loss team finishing above an undefeated team in RPI but those district teams Beechwood has to play are going to hurt their RPI. LCA has their own albatrosses coming in district opponents Shawnee and Washington County whose bad win/loss records are going to drag down LCA's OWP. O Cath and Mayfield also have a couple upcoming district opponents with bad win/loss records. That all might level its way out as it plays out.

That gets us to the final game of the year for each team. Beechwood plays a 6A team with 3 wins. LCA plays a 6A team with 2 wins. O Cath plays a 4A team and Mayfield plays a 3A team. There are more RPI points in beating a higher class team so Beechwood and LCA will gain points on O Cath and Mayfield if they all win.

If I had to predict right now how this ends up, I think the top 4 will finish the year in the same order as the top 4 we are looking at this week.

If LCA can beat Danville, I think that will help them a lot. Don't think it's enough to propel them above Beechwood but may help them stay at the #2.

1 hour ago, Cobraxx said:

If LCA can beat Danville, I think that will help them a lot. Don't think it's enough to propel them above Beechwood but may help them stay at the #2.

Agree. I don't think they can get to #1 but LCA is looking solid for #2 IMO.

And I appreciate the respect you are showing, but LCA is beating Danville no problem.